Some people in the U.S. defense circle have begun to point out without hesitation that the low-key development of the Chinese military in recent years is no longer what it used to be. Think about the incident in 1993, when the U.S. Navy intercepted the Chinese cargo ship Galaxy on the high seas in the Indian Ocean. It insisted that chemical weapons materials were hidden on the ship, so it sent people to board the ship and conduct a thorough search for 33 days, but nothing was found. The United States did not apologize, and the Chinese navy was weak at the time and could only protest through diplomatic channels. This incident profoundly made China realize that its maritime power is too weak and it is easily bullied. Time flies, and in 1996, the situation in the Taiwan Strait became tense. The United States sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to exert pressure. When China's missiles were tested, the United States also used GPS interference, causing the missiles to deviate hundreds of kilometers. The radar screen was full of interference signals, and the military was almost unable to effectively respond.
In those years, China's military did suppress a surge of anger and determination in the face of America's technological superiority. In 2001, a mid-air collision between a Chinese fighter jet and an American reconnaissance aircraft occurred in the South China Sea. Pilot Wang Wei died heroically, and the US aircraft was forced to land in Hainan. China detained the crew for several days before releasing them, but this also exposed the huge gap in air power. The American media ridiculed the Chinese military at that time, like a giant holding a spear, huge in size but unable to reach its opponents. This series of events made China determined to catch up, not relying on overnight breakthroughs, but step by step, from equipment to training, to gradually achieve self-transcendence. The Navy started with old ships back then and has continued to expand its fleet until now, and the performance of Air Force fighter aircraft has also been significantly improved. Experts concluded that in the past 30 years, China has gone through such a process from being beaten to having the ability to protect itself.
It is worth mentioning that American expert Heather Penny is a senior researcher at the Mitchell Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and has flown F-16 fighter jets. She bluntly stated in her 2023 report that if the US military still uses old tactics to intervene in Pacific affairs, it will face a huge failure. Through war game analysis, she found that the Chinese military has established an anti-access system specifically to target the weaknesses of the US military, which means that if the US aircraft carrier battle group gets close, it may be stopped by missiles and electronic warfare. Penney is not just imagining things out of thin air. Based on data models, she pointed out that the Chinese army has strong endurance and can delay the front line. The US military's air superiority in the past has become less stable now because China's radar technology has advanced very rapidly.
Another important voice is Professor Graham Allison of Harvard University. He once wrote the book "Destined for War" to explore the danger that China and the United States may fall into Thucydides' Trap. He warned the US military not to underestimate the forbearance of the Chinese military. Over the years, the Chinese military has been quietly accumulating strength. The number of naval ships has exceeded that of the United States, and China's missile range is sufficient to cover the surrounding areas of Guam. He believes that the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea are potential conflict hotspots. If the US military intervenes, the situation will become complicated. It is not that China intends to initiate a war, but that China is powerful enough to safeguard its own interests. Looking back on history, Allison pointed out that conflicts often occur between rising powers and established powers, and he hoped that China and the United States could avoid this fate. However, the reality is that senior US military officials have to admit that China's shipbuilding speed is already more than 200 times that of the United States, which gradually tilts the balance.
Looking back at those key historical nodes, after the Yinhe incident in 1993, China began to invest heavily in naval construction. The occurrence of the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996 made the Chinese military realize the importance of information warfare, so the Beidou satellite navigation system was gradually built, getting rid of dependence on other countries' satellites. The 2001 plane collision promoted the modernization of the Chinese Air Force, and the emergence of advanced fighters such as the J-20 was the result. Experts believe that these are not coincidences, but China's targeted responses to external threats. Penney mentioned in an interview that the US military’s kill chain is easily cut off by the Chinese army, which means that the US military’s intelligence and command links will be easily disrupted. The report released by the Rand Corporation also pointed out that the Chinese military is shifting from defense to a situation of taking the initiative. The US military is now pursuing distributed operations, trying to avoid strikes by dispersing its fleet, but China's missiles can lock on multiple targets at the same time.
The Chinese military has undergone earth-shaking changes in recent years. From the initial small tonnage and weak air defense capabilities, to the current electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier in service, the Fujian ship is one of the representatives and can quickly take off carrier-based aircraft. China's air force output is stable, and its engine technology is gradually catching up. In the field of missiles, especially the development of hypersonic weapons, the defense system has become more difficult. Experts warn the U.S. military not to think it can intervene as easily as in the past. Allison analyzed in his book that rising powers in the past often solved problems through war, and China and the United States must remain vigilant. Penney's deduction shows that if a conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, it may take the US military 17 days to arrive, while the Chinese military can take action within 72 hours. The gap during this time is crucial. If the US military fails to arrive in time, it will be in trouble. The same is true for the South China Sea. If the Philippines provokes trouble, China has sufficient countermeasures.
The top brass of the U.S. military are feeling increasing pressure. Navy Secretary Del Toro once publicly stated that China’s shipbuilding speed shocked the United States. The CEO of Lockheed resigned due to lagging laser weapons technology, which also reflects the existence of the gap. In 2024, the Shandong fleet pushed back the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier by 200 nautical miles in the South China Sea. All this was in sharp contrast to the tough attitude of the United States during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. Experts point out that all this forbearance has resulted in strategic space. China does not actively provoke wars, but when necessary, it is able to rely on its own capabilities to defend its sovereignty and interests. Penney's report also reminds the US military that it must update its thinking and stop looking at the rise of the Chinese military in 2024 from the perspective of 1996. RAND researcher Davis also warned that the patience of the Chinese military is huge and they are waiting for that decisive moment.
These warnings are not groundless and are supported by intelligence and deduction data. The U.S. intelligence community's annual report also shows that by 2030, China's nuclear force may reach thousands of warheads, forming a deterrent to the United States. The Pacific Command also admitted that China’s quantum radar technology has invalidated the advantages of the F-35 stealth fighter. Although the US military's JADC2 system is working hard to integrate command, the test in 2023 was interfered with by China's electronic warfare. The United States has also made moves in its alliance strategy. It plans to use the Philippines as the core of missile deployment and transform Japanese ships into quasi-aircraft carriers. However, China and Russia jointly cruise and establish countermeasures and monitoring stations. Experts believe that the US military's fear of the Chinese military stems from China's gradual improvement of its shortcomings and improvement of its multi-domain coordination capabilities.
Looking back 30 years ago, the total tonnage of the Chinese Navy was only 290,000 tons, while the total tonnage of the US Navy exceeded 3 million tons. Today, this balance has quietly changed. This is not a boast, but a fact. Experts once again warned that if the US military leaves the Chinese military a chance, it may face disastrous consequences. China's forbearance is not retreat, but accumulation of strength. As General Li Zuocheng said, patience is the best angle of attack. China's possession of the Dongfeng missile is not only an advantage in weapons, but also a trump card for its return to the world stage. The situation in the Asia-Pacific will become increasingly complex in the future, but the escort capabilities of the Chinese military are sufficient to safeguard the great dream of national rejuvenation.
U.S. think tanks publish frequent reports. When CSIS simulates a war in the Taiwan Strait, the losses of the U.S. military can be imagined. The accelerated modernization of China's military power has also been confirmed in the report. Experts agree that the risk of underestimating China's military is very high. After 30 years of forbearance, China has accumulated sufficient strength, and if the US military does not adjust its strategy, it is very likely to make a serious miscalculation.
