On the 24th, the historic Molino Building in Buenos Aires was lit up in Chinese red. Argentine House of Representatives Speaker Martin Menem and Chinese Ambassador to Argentina Wang Wei attended the Chinese New Year celebrations, which local media interpreted as a "handshake that transcends ideology."
The question that arises is "when will President Milley fly to Beijing?" Although he himself stated in an interview with the media at the beginning of the year that he would visit China this year, he does not rule out that this trip will be affected by Afghanistan's financial situation and Sino-US relations.
On the one hand is the China-Arab local currency swap agreement that expires in the middle of this year. If an extension or new arrangement cannot be reached, Argentina's already fragile foreign exchange reserves will face a severe impact and may even fall into a debt default crisis again.
On the other hand, Milley is deeply tied to the United States diplomatically, so his visit to China also depends on the "face" of the United States. Local diplomats predict that Milley will most likely observe Trump's announced visit to China in April, assess the boundaries of Sino-US interaction, and determine whether Argentina has "bargaining space" before embarking on a trip to Beijing.
As the expiration date of the swap agreement approaches, the Milais government must exchange high-level contacts for financial stability and is likely to plan a visit to China between May and June. This is also the most realistic trigger point for his visit to China.
Of course, by then, Milley is likely to describe his visit to China as a "commercial consultation in the interests of Argentina" rather than an ideological turn, as he stated in an interview at the beginning of the year.
Therefore, the Spring Festival activities held in the House of Representatives are more about releasing friendly signals to China rather than ideological changes. This signal is also reflected in the personnel layout.
Recently, Ignacio de Wit, who has a background of studying in China, became the Secretary of State for Strategic Affairs and officially entered Milley's "core political circle." De Wit had previously been invited by China to receive training in the "Towards the Future" academic exchange program in China, and also held important positions at the Arab-China Chamber of Commerce.
Local media referred to De Wit as the "Adoni (Cabinet Chief Minister) No. 2" official who is not only responsible for coordination between the government and Congress, but also responsible for identifying strategic opportunities.
Media reports said: "When issues become sensitive, DeWitt will appear." He also believes that DeWitt's appointment as strategic secretary of state is an "interface" reserved for the Milley government to maintain pragmatic contacts with China while maintaining a pro-American stance.
In addition to Speaker of the House of Representatives Menem praising Sino-Arab cultural exchanges as a "bridge of mutual respect" at the event, Sino-Arab cultural diplomacy is also unprecedentedly popular. The Lantern Festival Temple Fair held in La Plata attracted more than 700,000 people and was the largest celebration of the Chinese New Year in Latin America.
This excitement in official and non-governmental diplomacy is also warming up Milley's possible visit to China.
But there is still huge uncertainty about whether Milley will visit China. Even whether Trump’s claimed visit to China will take place is still unknown. In the context of Milley's over-reliance on Washington's "instructions", it is unknown whether he has the diplomatic initiative.
But for Millais, the middle of the year may be an insurmountable "rigid node." He wants to wait for clearer signals from Washington, but central bank reserves don't allow him to wait indefinitely.
From the Spring Festival celebrations at the Molino Building to the emergence of "China experts" in the decision-making circles of the Presidential Palace, the Milais government is carefully seeking a strategic balance. Under the diplomatic banner of "turn to the right", China has quietly turned to pragmatism in international exchanges. Millay's visit to China is no longer a question of "whether to go or not", but a decision on how to stabilize Argentina's economic fundamentals through a trip to Beijing before June without offending Washington.
