On the eve of the Spring Festival in 2026, a political earthquake suddenly erupted in Kyrgyzstan, China’s close neighbor in Central Asia.
On this day, Kamchibek Tashiev, the country’s “number two man” and the powerful chairman of the National Security Council, was undergoing a routine physical examination in a hospital in Germany. He may be lying on the hospital bed enjoying a rare moment of comfort, or he may be thinking about how to flex his muscles when he returns to China after recovery. However, thousands of miles away in the capital Bishkek, a presidential decree was quietly issued – he was dismissed from all positions, including deputy prime minister.
Kamchibek Tashiyev Source: Internet
When the news spread, the whole country was in uproar. Immediately afterwards, a series of chain reactions occurred in the Kyrgyz political arena: Speaker Turgunbek Ulu announced his resignation on the grounds of "certain political differences in the country"; several senior ministerial officials in transportation, environment, and emergencies who were considered allies of Tashiyev were kicked out one after another. A sudden "political earthquake" pushed this Central Asian country with a population of more than 6 million to the forefront.
The person who took action was none other than the current president of Kyrgyzstan, Sadr Zhaparov. This grassroots president, who had been in prison and was "robbed" from prison by his supporters, personally beheaded his once most staunch comrade-in-arms and his strongest right-hand man.
Kamchibek Tashiyev (left) and Sadr Zhaparov (right)
From Prisoner to President: The Fantastic Life of a Grassroots Politician
If Sadr Zhaparov's life was made into a movie, even the most daring screenwriters would complain that it was "too magical".
In 1968, Zhaparov was born in an ordinary farming family in the mountainous area of northern Kyrgyzstan near the border between China and Kyrgyzstan. He came from a poor family since he was a child. He attended the National Institute of Physical Education in his early years and worked as a radio operator in the Soviet army. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, he switched jobs and became a policeman. Later, he went into business and worked hard all the way. Later, he transitioned into politics and was elected as a member of Congress in 2005. However, at that time, he was just an inconspicuous member among many members and had no sense of existence.
Sadr Zhaparov Source: Internet
The turning point in his life occurred in 2012.
At that time, in response to the "fraud" of foreign investors in the Kumtor gold mine and the corruption of government officials, Zhaparov teamed up with another member of parliament, Kamchibek Tashiyev from the south, to organize rallies that lasted for several days and shouted the slogan "nationalization of gold mines." These actions angered the authorities and led to both men being arrested and jailed.
Sadr Zhaparov Source: Internet
After staying in prison for about a year, Zhaparov was released from prison and was forced to take his family into exile in Russia, Poland, Cyprus and other places. In 2017, he was homesick and eager to return to his hometown. However, as soon as he landed, he was thrown into prison again.
A twist of fate came in October 2020: large-scale protests broke out in Kyrgyzstan, and the political situation was out of control. Supporters actually rushed directly into the prison and rescued Zhaparov. Even Shuangwen dared not write about the following plot: In just a few months after being released from prison, he rose to become the prime minister and acting president of the country, until he was elected as the official president with a high vote in the general election in January 2021, completing a shocking reversal from "prisoner" to "head of state".
Sadr Zhaparov Source: Internet
From prisoner to head of state, the 52-year-old took only a few months. Without a prominent family or a top-level resume, he relied on the slogan of "anti-corruption and serving the people" to win nearly 80% of the votes and became the most legendary "grassroots strongman" in this Central Asian country.
The two heroes of the North and the South: a pair of prisoners, ruling the world together
Zhaparov's ability to secure the presidential throne was inseparable from the strong support of one person – his former comrade-in-arms and prisoner Tashiyev.
Tashiev was born in the southern Jalal-Abad region in 1968, a few months younger than Zhaparov. The two met during the protests in 2012 and were thrown into prison at the same time, thus forming a deep "inmate" friendship. After Zhaparov was rescued from prison by supporters in 2020, Tashiyev quickly stood by his side and became his strongest ally.
Kamchibek Tashiyev Source: Internet
More importantly: Zhaparov is from the north and Tashiyev is from the south.
Since Kyrgyzstan became independent, the biggest stubborn problem has been the division between north and south. The north, close to the capital Bishkek, has a good economy and a large concentration of elites; the south has strong clan power, strong folk customs, and complex ethnic relations, and has long been at odds with the north. All previous coups and turmoil have their roots in the North-South rivalry.
Source: Internet
Zhaparov is from the north, Tashiyev is from the south. This combination strikes a delicate balance to a certain extent: a northerner serves as the president, and a southerner controls the real power departments.
During the first few years of Zhaparov's administration, Tashiyev served as chairman of the National Security Council and was awarded the rank of lieutenant general. This position is similar to the combination of the director of the FBI and the director of the CIA in the United States, with great power. In the following years, a series of major anti-corruption cases led by Tahiyev were launched one after another. From the former deputy customs commissioner to the former prime minister, anyone who was suspected of corruption, no matter how high the level, could not escape investigation. For a time, Tahiyev was so powerful that he was recognized by the outside world as Kyrgyzstan's "number two man." There were even claims that he and Zhaparov were not essentially superiors and subordinates, but had a "co-governing" relationship.
Source: Internet
Zhaparov once quoted Deng Xiaoping's famous saying in an interview: "It doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice, it is a good cat." In his context, the black cat refers to the northerners, and the white cat refers to the southerners. As long as the country can be governed well, all can occupy a place in the government regardless of north or south. And Tahiyev is the "white cat" who catches mice for him.
However, when the cat grew stronger than its owner, the owner began to have trouble sleeping.
Game of Thrones: An elaborate surgical operation
On February 10, 2026, while undergoing a medical examination at a hospital in Munich, Germany, Tashiyev received news from Bishkek that he had been dismissed.
According to Tashiev himself, the news came as a "surprise" to him. But anyone with a discerning eye can see that this was by no means a spur-of-the-moment idea, but a carefully planned "surgical" political action.
The presidential press secretary’s explanation was high-sounding: “This move is aimed at preventing divisions in society, including divisions between government agencies, and promoting unity.” Zhaparov himself put it more bluntly in an interview: “I will neither allow a coup nor tolerate divisions.”
Why did you attack your former comrades? Outside analysis is limited to three possibilities.
The first possibility: Expansion of power and great achievements will shock the master. Tashiyev holds security power, with tentacles covering the economy, parliament, and local governments. He is so powerful that he is said to be the "de facto leader." There are even people who have signed a petition for early elections. In this regard, Zhaparov must strike first.
The second possibility: the battle for power transfer in the 2027 general election. There have long been rumors in the political arena: The two had agreed to "take turns taking charge", and Zhaparov would hand over power to Tashiyev at the end of the term. But those who hold the most power are rarely willing to let go. Zhaparov may have used this move to directly deny the agreement and cut off the other party's thoughts.
The third possibility: divergence in external lines. Tashiyev has become strongly nationalistic in recent years and favors Western forces such as Turkey and the United Kingdom. Zhaparov is clearly aware that Russia and China are Kyrgyzstan’s core security and economic partners, and he must slam on the brakes to avoid offending the two big brothers, China and Russia.
Source: Internet
However, no matter what the reason is, it means that the former brothers of life and death have become threats that must be eliminated.
Conclusion: Aftershocks and the Future
On February 16, Zhaparov said something meaningful in an interview: "Tashiyev is my friend, but he will not return to public office. I told him: rest well and take care of yourself."
Tashiyev remained silent after being dismissed, expressing his compliance with the decision. But this does not mean that domestic political risks have completely disappeared. Tashiyev has been operating in the south for a long time and has deep roots. Kyrgyzstan has had three revolutions in more than 30 years and is one of the most politically unstable countries in Central Asia. If you are not careful, another crisis may break out.
Zhaparov obviously has concerns about this. In an interview, he revealed that he is leading the implementation of a series of long-term measures aimed at eliminating the "North-South divide": 100% rotation of district chiefs, judges, and heads of security departments – there is no southern district chief in the south, all are from the north; and vice versa. Starting from September 2026, students enjoying budget quotas will also undergo north-south rotation, with northern students studying in the south and southern students studying in the north.
"In twenty or thirty years, the 'North-South divide' will disappear." Zhaparov promised.
This is a grand social project and a huge gamble. It will take a generation to reshape the national identity. If he succeeds, he is very likely to become the greatest president in the history of Kyrgyzstan; if he fails, the rift between the north and the south may further deepen and even tear this already fragile country apart.
For China, Kyrgyzstan is not a distant and unfamiliar country, but a key node of the Belt and Road Initiative, an important member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and a core participant in the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. In 2025, the trade volume between China and Kyrgyzstan will be US$27.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%. The stability of this mountainous country is directly related to the security and stability of China's northwest frontier.
Image source: bilibili@panoramic historical geography
In the short term, after Zhaparov consolidates his power, the agreements and policies he signs may be more enforceable, which will help promote the implementation of major projects such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan is the rotating chairman of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization this year, and the concentration of power is conducive to improving cooperation efficiency.
But in the long term, risks still exist.
Tashiyev's dismissal upset the political balance between North and South. If the southern region becomes unstable or even causes local unrest, it may affect the construction and operating environment of the southern section of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. What's even more terrible is that the Fergana region has always been a hotbed of extremist forces in history. If political instability causes society to lose control, the "three evil forces" may take the opportunity to rise and directly threaten the security of China's northwest border.
In this sense, the outcome of Zhaparov’s power game is not only related to Kyrgyzstan’s future, but also to China’s interests. We sincerely hope to see a stable neighbor, but we should also be prepared for possible instability.
