At the beginning of 2026, the real estate market will usher in key policy adjustments – the central government has made it clear that it will "focus on stabilizing the real estate market" and promote the purchase and storage of existing commercial housing in many places for affordable housing, talent housing, resettlement housing, etc. At the same time, personal tax rebates for house exchanges will be continued, credit and transaction processes will be optimized, and the policy combination will clearly point to "stabilizing expectations, destocking, optimizing supply, and protecting people's livelihood." For ordinary families, this year and the next two years will no longer be a cycle of "buying with eyes closed and selling blindly", but a stage of making precise decisions based on the city, the housing supply, and their own needs. Based on official policies and market data, this article uses popular language to explain policy logic, buying and selling boundaries, and practical suggestions to help everyone avoid misunderstandings and make rational decisions.
1. Official house repossession is not “rescuing the market for real estate speculation”. The core is to stabilize the market and provide security.
Many people mistakenly think that house prices are going to rise sharply when they see "official house closings". This is a misunderstanding of the policy. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 set the tone. The focus of real estate work in 2026 is to implement city-specific policies to control growth, destock, and optimize supply, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing to focus on affordable housing. This is a key measure to build a new model of real estate development, and is not to stimulate rising housing prices.
Judging from the implementation situation, Shanghai, Chongqing, Jinan, Haikou, Hunan, Henan and other places have introduced specific plans. The acquisition entities are mainly local state-owned enterprises and urban investment platforms. The funds come from special bonds, self-raised by state-owned enterprises and low-interest bank loans. The acquisition criteria are clear: priority is given to moderately sized apartments, The stock of commercial housing with convenient locations and qualified quality will be mainly converted into guaranteed rent housing, talent housing, staff dormitories, and resettlement housing. This will quickly digest the excess inventory in the market without requiring new land for construction, reduce the cost of affordable housing, and at the same time underpin the second-hand housing market and avoid irrational price declines.
The core functions of official purchase and reserve have three points: first, to resolve existing risks, help real estate companies withdraw funds, and reduce the risk of unfinished projects; second, to improve housing security and solve the housing problems of new citizens, young people, and industrial talents; third, to stabilize market expectations, set reasonable floor prices for second-hand housing, and avoid panic price cuts. What needs to be made clear is that the purchase and storage does not cover houses that are old and broken, have no supporting facilities in the outer suburbs, have oversized apartments, and have substandard quality. Such houses still face poor liquidity and depreciation pressure, and market differentiation will further intensify.
2. Core policies for the property market in 2026: Dividends can be enjoyed by those who are in urgent need, improve or replace
In addition to official purchase and reserve, national property market policies have been intensively implemented this year, covering the four major dimensions of taxation, credit, transactions, and guaranteed delivery of buildings. All of them are oriented to real living needs, and the bottom line of "housing is for living, not for speculation" is firmly adhered to. The specific dividends can be clearly checked:
1. The individual tax refund for house exchanges will be extended: According to the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation’s Announcement No. 3 of 2026, from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, if the old house is sold and a new house is purchased within one year, if the total price of the new house ≥ the transfer price of the old house, the full individual tax refund will be given; if the total price of the new house is < the transfer price of the old house, the tax will be refunded in proportion, limited to self-owned houses in the same city, and accurately covering improved families.
2. Transaction tax reduction: According to Announcement No. 17 of 2025 by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, starting from January 1, 2026, the value-added tax for individuals selling houses less than 2 years old will be reduced from 5% to 3%, and the value-added tax for more than 2 years (including 2 years) will still be exempted. The transaction cost of second-hand houses has dropped significantly.
3. Mortgage interest rates are at historically low levels: Provident fund interest rates for first homes over 5 years are 2.6%, and interest rates for second homes are 3.075%. Commercial loan interest rates for first homes are generally in the range of 3.05%-3.2%. A loan of RMB 1.2 million with equal principal and interest over 30 years can save nearly 60,000 yuan in interest compared to before.
4. Guaranteed delivery of housing is in place: As of October 2025, more than 7.5 million units of difficult-to-deliver housing have been delivered across the country, the real estate financing coordination mechanism has approved loans exceeding 7 trillion yuan, pre-sale funds have been 100% supervised, existing home sales have gradually advanced, and the risk of home purchase and delivery has been significantly reduced.
5. Transaction process optimization: "Transfer with mortgage" for second-hand houses has become popular across the country. The transfer can be completed without paying off the loan first. The processing efficiency is increased by more than 50%, effectively solving the capital turnover problem of replacement households.
These policies do not have any "room for real estate speculation". They are all aimed at reducing housing costs and smoothing the replacement cycle, so that real needs can be afforded, improvements can be exchanged, and the market can be stabilized. They are real dividends for people's livelihood.
3. Should I buy a house this year or next? Give clear answers to three categories of people
When buying a house, don't follow the trend. Just look at the three core factors of your own needs, affordability, and city fundamentals. If the following conditions are met, you can safely buy a house this year; if not, don't forcefully increase leverage.
1. If you just need to live in your own home: If you meet the conditions, this year is the safe window period
Immediate demand refers to people who live in their first home, live for a long time (more than 5 years), and have a fixed work and life, such as getting married, raising children, and returning to their hometown to settle down. They can buy it as long as they meet three conditions: first, they have a stable income, sufficient down payment, and the monthly payment does not exceed 50% of the family's monthly income; second, they choose housing in main urban areas of core cities, along subways, and with mature facilities, giving priority to existing houses or houses that have been capped off-plan; third, they do not pursue one-stop development, giving priority to small units and low total prices to reduce the pressure of life.
If you are in urgent need in core cities (first-tier, strong second-tier), you don’t need to hesitate too much. There are sufficient housing stocks with policy bonuses, so you can easily choose. In third- and fourth-tier cities, if you are in urgent need, you only need to buy core suites in the main urban areas, and stay away from large-scale suburban and cultural tourism projects. This type of housing has poor liquidity and will be difficult to sell in the future.
2. Improve replacement: sell old and buy new, and take advantage of policy dividends to optimize assets
Improving the family is the biggest beneficiary of this year's policy. The triple benefits of tax rebates, low interest rates, and mortgage transfers make it suitable to sell low-quality houses and replace them with high-quality houses: for example, sell old and small houses in outer suburbs and exchange them for large three-bedroom apartments in urban areas, elevator rooms, and residential areas with good properties; sell multiple sets of non-core houses and concentrate on holding one high-quality house in a core location.
Suggested rhythm: first lock in the target housing supply, then sell the old house through formal channels, and use the tax rebate policy to reduce costs, which not only optimizes the quality of living, but also reduces holding costs and improves the quality of household assets.
3. Investing in real estate speculation: I strongly do not recommend it. If you live in a house and do not speculate, you will not be shaken.
The policy clearly states that "real estate will not be used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy." The era of soaring housing prices is over. At present, the cost of holding real estate is high, liquidity is divided, and the population trend is stabilizing. Investment real estate is not only difficult to appreciate in value, but may also face the risk of depreciation and difficulty in realizing cash. Steady financial management and long-term savings are more reliable than blindly buying a house. Don't enter the market with the idea of "making money by speculating in real estate."
4. Should I sell my house this year or next? It is recommended to sell these three types of houses, and it is recommended to hold these three types of houses.
When selling a house, you don't look at "market ups and downs." You only look at the value of the house, your own needs, and the use of funds. Clearly distinguish between "should be sold" and "should be kept" to avoid suffering a loss if you sell wrongly and depreciate if you keep it.
Three types of houses recommended for timely sale
1. Houses in third- and fourth-tier outer suburbs without supporting facilities and purely for investment purposes: outflow of population, high inventory, no industry, no transportation, and no school district. Even the official purchase and reserve does not cover them. The longer they are held, the harder it will be to sell them, so they must be liquidated as soon as possible to withdraw funds.
2. Houses that are over 20 years old, have no real estate, and have no school district: no demolition expectations, poor living experience, limited loans, and continuous decline in liquidity. Take advantage of the market support to make timely investments.
3. Houses with multiple holdings, vacant properties and low rental income: the holding costs (property fees, heating fees, maintenance costs) are higher than the income and occupy a large amount of funds. It is better to optimize the asset allocation after selling.
Three types of houses recommended to be held with peace of mind
1. Real-time/improved housing in core areas of core cities with mature supporting facilities: complete transportation, school districts, commerce, and medical care, with strong liquidity and strong resilience, which are the "ballast stones" of family assets.
2. High-quality housing around the industrial park and for commuting on the subway: driven by industry-city integration, rental demand is stable, suitable for both owner-occupancy and rental, and long-term value is stable.
3. Sub-new houses with new age, good properties and high-quality floor plans: meet the standards of "good houses" and have high market recognition. They can maintain stable value even if the market adjusts.
Practical reminder for selling a house: Give priority to regular intermediaries and official purchase and storage channels, do not sell at low prices, do not panic, and set reasonable prices; if you are in urgent need of capital turnover, clear the property rights in advance to speed up the transaction process.
5. 5 practical rules for ordinary people to buy and sell houses to avoid 90% of pitfalls
1. Do not buy high-risk properties: Do not buy unqualified real estate companies, uncapped off-plan properties, suburban cultural and tourism properties, or residential properties converted from commercial offices. Prioritize existing properties and projects from whitelisted real estate companies.
2. Do not overleverage: Do not use up all your savings for the down payment, set aside funds for decoration and emergency, the monthly payment does not exceed 50% of the family income, and do not borrow consumer loans or business loans to buy a house.
3. Pay attention to urban differentiation: The market in core cities is stable, and third- and fourth-tier cities should be carefully selected. When buying a house, you only buy in areas with "people, industries, and supporting facilities" and do not engage in conceptual speculation of real estate.
4. According to demand and not according to expectations: when buying a house for self-occupation, it depends on comfort, and when selling a house for cash, it depends on liquidity. Do not bet on the rise or fall of house prices, and return to the essence of housing and living.
5. Follow the formal procedures: when buying a house, check the property rights, inspect the house, and check the fund supervision account; when selling the house, sign a formal contract, clarify the sharing of taxes and fees, ensure the safety of funds, and do not conduct private transactions.
6. Summary: In the property market in 2026, stability is the priority and rationality is king.
The official purchase and reserve and a series of new policies are not to make the real estate market "surge and plummet", but to return real estate to the attributes of residence and people's livelihood, bid farewell to the era of speculation, and enter a new stage of stable and healthy development. The core logic for this year and next is very simple: buy when you need it, replace it when it is time to improve it, and never invest in it; sell low-quality houses as soon as possible, and keep high-quality houses safely.
There is no absolute "best time", only the decision that suits you. Based on your own needs, act according to your ability, choose the right housing, and abide by the rules, you can protect your assets and live with peace of mind during the real estate market adjustment period.
Warm reminder: The content of this article is for policy interpretation and reference only. Specific house purchase, sale, taxes, and loan policies shall be subject to the latest official notices from the local housing and construction department, tax department, and bank.
#TopicDiscussion# Has your city introduced an official housing collection policy? Do you plan to buy or sell a house this year, or continue to wait and see? Welcome to share your situation and thoughts in the comment area and communicate rationally together!
