The order of the years is renewed, and the horse sets off. On the occasion of the 2026 New Year of the Horse, I would like to extend my sincere New Year greetings to all investors and friends, and wish you all good luck in the Year of the Horse, prosperous careers, and smooth investment!
The New Year contains new changes and opportunities. The impact of the current external environment is deepening, the growth momentum of the world economy is diverging, trade barriers are increasing, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments in major economies. The challenges of unstable overseas geopolitical environments and weak domestic supply and demand require us to respond actively and steadily.
Looking forward to 2026, my country will demonstrate its solid foundation and strong potential in the complex landscape of the global economy, give full play to the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, increase counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments, improve the efficiency of macroeconomic governance, fully empower high-quality development with technological innovation, accelerate the conversion of old and new driving forces, and continue to deepen reform and opening up. On this basis, my country's economy is expected to achieve reasonable quantitative growth and effective qualitative improvement, providing investors with abundant opportunities.
In terms of expanding domestic demand, we expect that the endogenous potential of the economy will be fully released in the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan", proactive fiscal policies will improve quality and efficiency, moderately loose monetary policies will maintain sufficient liquidity, industrial policies will develop new productive forces in accordance with local conditions, and promote the optimization of supply and the expansion of demand to promote each other, and other policies will also work at the same time. In 2025, commercial housing sales will be close to the long-term equilibrium level. In 2026, real estate will accelerate the construction of a new development model. The marginal impact of development investment on the economy will gradually decrease. Real estate-related financial risks will be effectively resolved, creating new hope for the recovery of the economic cycle. Promoting consumption upgrading through service consumption will become the key to expanding domestic demand. Implementing plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents and developing service trade will also open up new horizons for consumption. We predict that in 2026, the economy will achieve stable production, excellent structure, resilient external demand, and expanding domestic demand. The PPI decline is expected to narrow significantly. The consumption of core goods and services will support the stable CPI. The overall price will rebound reasonably. The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to rise to around 4.5%, laying a solid foundation for the development of the capital market.
In terms of building a modern industrial system, scientific and technological innovation will continue to give full play to its strategic supporting role in China's modernization drive. As breakthroughs in hard technology are made from point to point, new technologies, new products, and new scenarios continue to emerge, and the accelerated integration of the innovation chain, industrial chain, and talent chain will create greater market space. The country implements a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains to strengthen the role of enterprises as the main innovation body, deepen the expansion of "artificial intelligence +", and enhance total factor productivity with technological empowerment. As an important part of the modern industrial system, the service industry will be deeply integrated with the manufacturing industry to promote the flow of resource factors and inject new impetus into economic growth and employment security. Driven by a high level of opening up, my country's service industry will also provide more and better Chinese services to the world.
In terms of major asset allocation strategies, bond investment pays attention to the signals of money market liquidity, participates in interest rate bonds with a range-bound approach, and strengthens the use of derivatives strategies. The short-term allocation value of credit bonds is relatively good, but you need to be wary of the risks of long-term credit bonds; equity investment grasps the industrial boom, profit restoration and reasonable valuation under the long-term bull and slow-bull pattern, explores the value of high-quality listed companies, and seizes the two main lines of technological growth and expanding domestic demand.
With bond interest rates falling and stock market indexes recovering, it becomes more difficult to achieve steady wealth appreciation through a single asset and a single strategy. Pengyang Fund deeply grasps the goal of finance for the people, practices the value of customer first and the purpose of professional and stable business operations, builds a platform-based, industrialized, and team-based investment research system, builds four major business lines of active fixed income, active equity, index quantification, and multi-asset, and lays out a product matrix along the risk-return curve. We will continue to improve the absolute return investment capabilities of active fixed income, the in-depth industry research and value discovery capabilities of active equity, the investment collaboration capabilities of multi-asset and multi-strategies, and the innovation capabilities of index quantitative investment. We will effectively give full play to the function of public funds as social wealth managers, serve the needs of the real economy, support the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and enhance investors’ sense of gain.
Spring opens a new chapter, and the horse travels far. In the face of the complex and ever-changing market environment, we hope that we will continue to move forward like a horse, discern opportunities with keen eyes, and plan for the future with a steady heart. I sincerely wish China’s capital market to ride on the momentum in the Year of the Horse, anchor the construction of a financial power, and seize the opportunity to deepen reform; I wish China’s economy to make rapid and steady progress, and continue to write new brilliance on the road of high-quality development; I wish all investors and friends a healthy new year, happiness to their families, and everything goes well, to embark on a new journey in the Year of the Horse, and to draw a new blueprint for investment!
About the author
Mr. Yang Aibin graduated from Fudan University in 1998 with a major in international finance and a master's degree in economics. He is currently the general manager of Pengyang Fund Management Co., Ltd. He started investing in bonds in 1999. He was one of the first practitioners of the inter-bank bond market. He served as a member of the first bond market committee of the China Inter-bank Dealers Association and witnessed the leap in the size of my country's bond market from 200 billion to 200 trillion. He once worked for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Ping An Insurance, and China Asset Management. Founded Pengyang Fund in 2016. In 2018, he was awarded the "Best Fund Manager of the 20th Anniversary of China's Fund Industry" by China Fund News.
