Financial News Agency, February 27 (Editor Shi Zhengcheng) Industry research organization IDC warned in its latest report that the global smartphone market will usher in an "unprecedented crisis" in 2026 due to memory shortages.
IDC has significantly lowered its forecast for smartphone shipments in 2026 to about 1.1 billion units, which is far lower than last year's figure of 1.26 billion. This means that the smartphone market may experience a record year-on-year decline of 13% this year.
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, said bluntly: "Compared with the memory crisis, the tariff chaos and the impact of the epidemic pale into insignificance. At the end of the current crisis, the smartphone market will experience a dramatic transformation in size, average selling price, and competitive landscape. We do not expect the situation to ease until at least mid-2027."
Analysis points out that in the face of sharp price increases in the cost of key components, mobile phone manufacturers can only respond by tightening configurations, eliminating unprofitable entry-level models, and pushing consumers to switch to higher-end devices. IDC believes that in the past few years, the entry-level devices launched by many manufacturers in order to compete for market share are more vulnerable to cost pressures because memory prices account for a larger proportion of the overall material cost.
Of course, compared to rising prices, the more serious problem faced by smartphone manufacturers is the inability to buy enough chips. Qualcomm CEO Amon said after releasing the financial report this week: "The problem now is not only the price, but also the availability of supply. I think how much memory manufacturers can get will determine the overall size of the mobile phone market."
Interestingly, anecdotes about Apple negotiating with Samsung Electronics to purchase LPDDR5X memory were also reported in the market on Thursday: Samsung originally only wanted to increase the price by 60%, so it initially tentatively offered a price increase of 100%, but Apple agreed to it in order to ensure supply. Even so, Apple's memory supply for the second half of this year has not yet been secured.
This news will obviously not be officially confirmed, but Apple, as the "supply chain master", has also been forced into such a situation, and other manufacturers are likely to be facing the same troubles.
IDC further stated that even if the memory shortage eases after 2027, the smartphone market is unlikely to return to its previous pricing structure.
Popal said: "The era of low-priced smartphones is over, and even if the memory crisis eases, we do not expect memory prices to return to 2025 levels."
IDC pointed out that approximately 170 million smartphones priced under $100 were shipped last year, and this segment is now unprofitable.
(Shi Zhengcheng of Financial Associated Press)
