On April 9, WTI crude oil futures hit $100 per barrel, rising by more than 5% during the day. Brent crude oil rose more than 3% to US$98.429 per barrel. At the same time, London silver rose by more than 1% to US$74.549 per ounce; London gold rose by 0.86% to US$4754.680 per ounce.
On the news, according to Xinhua News Agency, senior Iranian sources said that during the ceasefire period, Iran will allow no more than 15 ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. The source also said Iran's demands include the United States unfreezing Iranian assets within two weeks.
In addition, CCTV Finance reported that after a small number of ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 8, Israel attacked Lebanon that day, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz suddenly became tense. Iranian media said that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely closed and some tankers have been forced to return. According to relevant data, about 100-120 commercial ships passed through every day before the conflict, and about 72 ships passed through during the week from March 30 to April 5. It was the busiest week since the conflict, but it was still about 90% lower than normal levels.
Analysts pointed out that Gulf security risks still dominate shipping decisions. Maersk stated on April 8 that it welcomed the ceasefire but had limited information and had not yet fully restored certainty. It would remain cautious and not adjust routes for the time being.
The market is paying attention to whether follow-up negotiations can lead to a long-term peace agreement. Roger Altman, founder of Evercore, an independent US investment bank, believes that for complex issues like the Iran conflict, a real peace agreement usually takes one to two years instead of two weeks. It is unrealistic to reach a comprehensive agreement within two weeks, but it may lead to the extension of the ceasefire agreement.
China Post Securities stated that the precious metals industry has shown strong defensiveness and anti-cyclicality in the current economic environment. Resource companies, relying on their stable cash flow and resource reserve advantages, are expected to maintain relatively stable performance amid market fluctuations. As global inflation expectations rise and geopolitical uncertainty increases, the value of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven assets has become more prominent, and related industry chain companies have long-term investment value.
Glapinski, Governor of the Central Bank of Poland, said that the Central Bank of Poland continues to purchase gold. Reaffirming the goal of increasing gold reserves to 700 tons, the Polish central bank currently holds 580 tons of gold.
