In-depth analysis of Sinoma Technology: performance elasticity, doubling cycle and valuation positioning
As of April 3, 2026, the closing price of Sinoma Technology A shares was 39.72 yuan, with a total market value of 66.66 billion yuan. As a leading enterprise in the field of new materials in China, the company focuses on the three core areas of wind power blades, glass fiber and lithium film. It is the global leader in wind power blades and the top three in the domestic glass fiber industry. It has also deployed in the field of new energy materials and formed a "wind power + glass fiber + lithium film" diversified coordinated development pattern. Benefiting from the explosion of global wind power installations, the emergence of supply and demand inflection points in the glass fiber industry, AI and new energy vehicles driving the growth of glass fiber demand and the industry's self-discipline "anti-involution" policy, the current valuation and growth space have attracted market attention. Based on the latest forecasts from domestic and foreign institutions, this article estimates the period required for the stock price to double, and uses mainstream valuation methods to determine whether the current pricing is undervalued or in the bubble range. Follow Niu Xiaowu
1. Institutional performance and target price prediction: How long will it take for the stock price to double? 1. Core performance forecast (2026-2028)
In 2025, Sinoma Technology will achieve revenue of 24.86 billion yuan (+58.2%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.83 billion yuan (+143%), non-net profit after deducting 2.79 billion yuan (+145.3%), and adjusted net profit of 2.81 billion yuan (+144 .1%), performance achieved explosive growth and hit a record high, mainly benefiting from the increased demand for wind turbine blades, the cyclical recovery of the fiberglass industry and product price increases, and the steady contribution of the lithium film business. At the same time, the company's core business competitiveness continued to improve, and its industry position was further consolidated. In 2025, the company's wind power blade business revenue will account for approximately 48.2%, glass fiber business will account for approximately 42.5%, and lithium film and other businesses will account for approximately 9.3%. Among them, the gross profit margin of the glass fiber business increased by 8.7 percentage points year-on-year to 29.5%, and the gross profit margin of the wind power blade business remained at 28.3%. The profitability of the core business has improved significantly. The company's core advantage lies in its global market share of wind turbine blades, which ranks among the top three in the country. Its glass fiber business ranks among the top three in the country (market share 17%). The cumulative wind turbine blade orders on hand exceed 80GW. Within 90 days, a total of 9 institutions gave ratings, of which 8 were buys and 1 was increase.
2. Institutional target price and doubling cycle calculation
The current stock price is 39.72 yuan, and the doubled target price is 79.44 yuan, corresponding to a total market value of 133.32 billion yuan.
Target price of international institutions:
Doubling period calculation (three scenarios):
Optimistic scenario: performance growth rate of 48%+, valuation restored to 28 times PE (the recovery of the fiberglass industry + the high prosperity of wind power, the reasonable valuation range of leading companies, in line with the upward logic of the industry cycle) net profit in 2027 is 5.15 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value of 144.20 billion yuan (≈86.2 yuan), doubling in about 1.8-2.1 years. Neutral scenario: Performance growth rate of 36%, valuation maintained at 24 times. PE's net profit in 2027 is 4.92 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value of 118.08 billion yuan (≈70.6 yuan). Net profit in 2028 is 5.85 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value of 140.40 billion yuan (≈84.0 yuan), doubling in about 2.6-2.9 years. Conservative scenario: performance growth rate of 25%-30%, valuation of 20 times, PE's net profit in 2027 is 4.53 billion yuan, corresponding to a market value of 90.60 billion yuan (≈54.2 yuan), and net profit in 2028 is 5.44 billion yuan yuan, corresponding to a market value of 108.80 billion yuan (≈65.1 yuan), and a net profit of 6.80 billion yuan in 2029, corresponding to a market value of 136.00 billion yuan (≈81.4 yuan), doubling in about 3.8-4.2 years.
Core conclusion: With the combined force of the elastic release of performance + the inflection point of supply and demand in the fiberglass industry + the explosion of wind power installed capacity, Sinoma Technology's stock price has a neutral expectation of 2.6-2.9 years and an optimistic expectation that it can double in 1.8-2.1 years; if fiberglass prices fall, wind power installed capacity falls short of expectations, or industry competition intensifies, the cycle will be extended to more than 5.0 years.
2. Mainstream valuation methods: Is the current stock price undervalued or a bubble? 1. Price-to-earnings ratio (PE) valuation method (the core)
Comparison baseline:
Judgment: Reasonable valuation, no bubble. The dynamic PE is lower than the industry average and is highly consistent with the 36% performance compound growth rate. As the wind power blades and fiberglass businesses continue to increase in volume and performance elasticity is released in 2026, the PE is expected to fall back to about 13.55 times in 2027. The valuation matches the growth pace and there is no obvious bubble. It is in line with the cyclical recovery of the fiberglass industry and the characteristics of the wind power boom.
2. Price-to-book ratio (PB) valuation method 3. Price-to-sales ratio (PS) valuation method 4. Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method 5. Segment valuation (SOTP) method 3. Comprehensive judgment and core logic 1. Valuation positioning: reasonably low, no bubble 2. Core support logic 3. Risk warning 4. Summary
Sinoma Technology's current market value of 39.72 yuan and 66.66 billion is in a reasonably low range, and there is no bubble risk. Based on the consensus forecast of institutions, the stock price is expected to double in 2.6-2.9 years under the neutral scenario and 1.8-2.1 years under the optimistic scenario. As a global leader in wind power blades and a leader in domestic fiberglass, the company has benefited from the cyclical recovery of the fiberglass industry, the explosion of wind power installed capacity and the synergy of diversified businesses. It has considerable performance flexibility, has room for slight correction in valuation, and has outstanding medium and long-term investment value. Follow Niu Xiaowu to get more in-depth analysis of high-quality stocks.
