On the first day of construction in the Year of the Horse, China launched a "combination punch" against the "seven inches" of Japanese militarism.
The Ministry of Commerce has put 20 Japanese military industry centers such as Mitsubishi Shipbuilding on the export control list. In addition, it has also added 20 Japanese entities such as Subaru Co., Ltd. that cannot verify the end users and end uses of dual-use items on the watch list, comprehensively cutting off the supply of dual-use items, and clearly aiming to stop Japan's "remilitarization."
Precision strike
Taking a closer look at these two lists, precision is their biggest feature.
Take the Japanese aerospace industry as an example. From the "national team" Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to the major heavy industry giants that dominate the manufacturing of launch vehicles and satellites, almost all of them are listed.
JAXA is responsible for coordinating all government-led aerospace projects in Japan, including satellite development and launch missions. This direct “cut off” supply of dual-use items means that all space projects led by it will face great resistance in obtaining key components and materials from my country.
Japan's rocket manufacturing is highly dependent on several major heavy industry companies. Their aerospace department was accurately included in the control list this time. For example, there are 6 companies in the IHI (Ishikawashima Harima Heavy Industries) system on the list. Among them, IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd. is the main contractor of Japan's solid launch vehicle "Epsilon" and is also the manufacturer of the H3 liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen rocket solid booster.
In addition, Kawasaki Heavy Industries Aerospace Systems Co., Ltd., which is on the list, is involved in the manufacturing of Japanese launch vehicle fairings and satellite payload docking systems, and is also an important builder of the space station module. Fujitsu is involved in software and hardware support for aerospace measurement and control, encrypted communications and satellite ground systems.
In the "Watch List", we see Subaru Aerospace Division, Fuji Aerospace Technology, Mitsui & Co. Aerospace, Itochu Aviation, etc. Of particular note is NOF Corporation, which is one of the few companies in Japan that can provide key raw materials for high-performance rocket solid propellants; in addition, TDK, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Nitto Denko, etc. control the precision electronic components, special sensors and advanced materials required for spacecraft.
Playing style has changed
It is worth mentioning that looking at this list, China’s countermeasures have ushered in a qualitative change at a strategic level, from usage restrictions to precise blacklisting.
In the past, our control measures were more limited to the use restriction stage to prevent specific items from flowing into uncontrollable areas. This model often requires a large amount of administrative resources to track the final flow of materials, and it is easy to have certain lags and room for avoidance in actual operations.
This time, the Ministry of Commerce directly named Mitsubishi Shipbuilding and other established military industry giants and affiliated companies into a double blacklist for control and attention, marking the realization of a fundamental change in countermeasures from physical defense to human defense. This precise surgical strike completely cut off Japan's attempts to obtain key dual-use technology and equipment through shell companies or civilian cover.
This is not only a sign that China’s export control legal system is increasingly improving, but also a mature manifestation of my country’s coordinated development and security in accordance with the law and its proficiency in using internationally accepted rules to safeguard the country’s core interests. From passive defense to active blacklisting, China has shown more and more methods and confidence.
Of course, China's export control measures only target a few Japanese entities, and relevant measures only target dual-use items and will not affect normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan. Honest and law-abiding Japanese entities have nothing to worry about.
In fact, China has always been Japan's important trading partner, and the two sides have extensive cooperation in the economic and trade field. China hopes that by adopting export control measures, Japan will face up to history, abide by the "Peace Constitution", adhere to the path of peaceful development, and create favorable conditions for the healthy and stable development of Sino-Japanese relations.
Can it awaken Japan’s dream of military expansion?
Although Japan has advanced precision manufacturing capabilities, it is still highly dependent on China's huge supply chain system in many key upstream materials, rare metal processing, and cutting-edge electronic components.
This structural dependence has become an excellent entry point for China to implement precise countermeasures.
In the short term, the production efficiency of Japan's defense industry will decline significantly, and it is a foregone conclusion that military projects will be delayed and costs will rise. In the medium term, although Japan is trying to reduce its dependence on China through import substitution and overseas cooperation, finding alternative sources means rising costs, and it will take time to ramp up production capacity.
The reaction of the capital market is also the most real. After the announcement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' stock price directly gave up its early gains. The market's voting with its feet reflected investors' concerns about future development.
Once they are included in the control list, it means that these core Japanese military industrial entities will face a crisis of supply cuts. Whether it is Mitsubishi Shipbuilding's advanced ship research and development or Subaru's military helicopter project, they will fall into a desperate situation of stagnating production capacity or soaring costs due to the loss of source of vitality, and the entire weapon research and development cycle will be forced to be significantly lengthened.
Economic countermeasures are only a means, and resolutely curbing the restoration of militarism is the ultimate foundation. When some politicians are obsessed with the old dream of military expansion, a tight export control network has made them realize the cruel reality.
The old path of militarism will not work, and provoking China will only lead to bitter consequences. Stepping back from the brink is the only way out for Japan.
