Canadian Prime Minister Carney is launching a diplomatic breakout in the Asia-Pacific region.
Starting from February 27, he will visit India, Australia and Japan. In his first stop in India, the Prime Minister appeared in New Delhi and Mumbai as an "icebreaker", trying to repair the relationship between India and Canada that had once fallen to a freezing point.
Faced with this scene, some Indian media lamented: "This visit was simply unimaginable a year ago."
What strategic considerations are hidden behind this dramatic change?
In September 2023, the assassination of Canadian Sikh leader Nijar was like a political bomb, causing Indo-Canadian relations to take a sharp turn.
The then Prime Minister Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of being involved in the case, but India flatly denied it. The two sides expelled diplomats from each other, the trade agreement negotiations came to an abrupt end, and bilateral relations fell into a low ebb.
But the direction of international politics is not dominated by emotions.
After Carney took office last year, he sent a clear signal: Canada is accelerating its "Look East."
Much of this push comes from our southern neighbor—Trump set off a trade protectionist storm after returning to the White House, threatening to impose tariffs on all imported goods.
The United States is Canada's largest trading partner and an important export market for India, which makes both Ottawa and New Delhi feel chilly.
Therefore, moderation becomes an inevitable option. In November last year, India and Canada announced the resumption of previously stalled trade agreement negotiations, with the goal of achieving bilateral trade volume of more than 50 billion US dollars by 2030, doubling the current level.
Carney said bluntly at the Davos Forum at the beginning of the year: "The middle powers must act together, otherwise they will become the targets of being slaughtered."
Such a "two-way trip" contributed to Carney's official visit to India.
India's reception this time was quite grand: the airport was greeted with flowers on the red carpet, and Carney was also arranged to have a discussion with the directors of Tata, India's largest conglomerate.
Carney also gave positive feedback, calling India a "natural partner" and saying that the two countries are expected to reach a comprehensive economic partnership agreement before the end of the year, which may be signed at the G20 summit in December.
According to the latest news, during this visit, the two sides not only signed a key uranium supply agreement, but also agreed to formally launch the final stage of free trade negotiations.
A closer look at the itinerary shows that Kani spent more time in Mumbai than New Delhi. Prioritizing the commercial center over the political center is a statement in itself.
In Mumbai, Carney conducted intensive "business exchanges" and met with Indian business people. The governors of the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and New Brunswick also participated.
After discussing business, Carney went to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Trump's protectionist policies were one of the topics they wanted to discuss.
At present, India and China's strengthening of cooperation is not impulsive, but is supported by data.
In 2024, India has become Canada's seventh largest trading partner in goods and services, with annual bilateral trade volume reaching US$30.8 billion.
Let’s look at the trade structure: In terms of trade in goods, Canada is in deficit with India, and its exports are mainly energy and minerals, while India’s exports to Canada are mainly pharmaceuticals and jewelry; in terms of trade in services, Canada’s surplus with India is as high as 15.2 billion Canadian dollars, of which “education-related travel” accounts for the majority, with nearly 400,000 Indian students studying in Canada.
what does that mean? India needs Canada's resources and educational opportunities, and Canada needs India's market and talents.
For India, Canada's uranium, oil, and natural gas mean diversifying energy imports and reducing dependence on specific regions; Canada wants to "export more oil to India." Currently, most of its oil is exported to the United States, and it urgently needs to open up new markets.
Outsiders pointed out that Carney's Asia-Pacific trip is intended to get rid of economic dependence on the United States. This trip also has different focuses: with Japan it focuses on "value coordination", with Australia it focuses on "competition coordination", and with India it is necessary to "break the ice" and "find increments." Because of this, India is regarded as "the most important and difficult stop."
Of course, India also has plans to play.
In terms of energy security, Canada has the third largest oil reserves in the world and the country is stable. The two sides have reached a nuclear energy cooperation agreement, and Canada will provide uranium to India, which will greatly enhance India's energy independence.
In terms of educational dividends, this visit led to the signing of agreements between the Association of Canadian Universities and 13 Indian universities to promote research cooperation and student exchange projects, which will cultivate more high-end talents in India.
Geopolitically, when the United States is pursuing protectionism and the global trading system is in turmoil, Canada has taken the initiative to show its goodwill, giving India another card besides the United States.
From “unthinkable” in the past to “natural partners” today, Carney is trying to rewrite the narrative of Indo-Canadian relations. Behind this "ice-breaking" is Canada's strategic breakthrough in its eagerness to get rid of its dependence on the United States. It is also a low-cost, high-return strategic bet by India.
(Editor’s email: ylq@jfdaily.com)
