Xinhua News Agency Beijing/Cairo reported on March 1 that the Iranian government confirmed on March 1 that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an attack by the United States and Israel. Iranian President Pezhiziyan said later the same day that Iran's interim leadership council would begin work that day until a new supreme leader was elected.
Since the 1980s, Khamenei has served as Iran's president and supreme leader. His murder will have an important impact on the situation in Iran. Can Iran's leadership transition stably after losing Khamenei? Will Iran retaliate more violently, and will the conflict become more intense and protracted? How will the pattern of the Middle East be affected?
Will Iran's political situation be stable?
Iranian media said that Khamenei "died on his job in the leader's office." Khamenei was born in 1939. He was elected president in 1981 and served until 1989. He took over as supreme leader in June 1989. As supreme leader, Khamenei has the final say in state affairs and direct control of the military. He advocated the development of national defense and nuclear programs, supported "resistance fronts" in many countries in the Middle East, and proposed a "resistance economy" strategy to deal with sanctions and domestic economic pressure.
This is a file photo of Khamenei voting in Iran’s 14th presidential election in Tehran on June 28, 2024. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shadati
Khamenei, who has been in power for a long time, has a profound impact on the Iranian regime. His murder is undoubtedly a blow to Iran. Khamenei's successor has not yet been determined. However, experts believe that Khamenei's murder will not necessarily lead to violent political instability in Iran. Iranian officials said Iran has made plans for the period after Khamenei's martyrdom.
Experts such as Ali Hashim, a scholar at the University of London, analyzed that Iran's constitution and system have corresponding arrangements for successors and crisis management. Khamenei's murder may unite national sentiment in the short term, and the Iranian regime may also be stabilized and become tougher under external threats. At the same time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may play a key role in the transitional stage of the regime.
Jon Altman, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, believes that Khamenei’s murder does not yet mean that the United States and Israel have achieved the goal of “regime change.” “It is difficult to change the minds of the Iranian regime and Iranians with air strikes alone.”
Will the war escalate?
Khamenei's murder will also affect the next step in the conflict. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on the 1st that it would launch "the most violent attack in history" against the United States and Israel. U.S. President Trump responded by saying that the U.S. military would respond with an "unprecedented" response.
Experts believe that after Khamenei was killed in the attack, Iran's hardliners may be significantly more willing to further fight back against the United States and Israel under the dual pressure of external revenge and internal stability. However, given the gap in military power between Iran and the United States and Israel, Iran's counterattack may be characterized by high intensity and limited interweaving. At the same time, it will launch counterattacks in non-traditional security fields such as networks and energy. The conflict may evolve into a "war of attrition" superimposed on multiple domains.
This is the scene of a missile attack filmed in Beit Shemesh, a town west of Jerusalem, on March 1. Published by Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Jamal Awad)
James Stavridis, the former top military chief of NATO, analyzed that if Iran is forced into a "desperate situation", it will not rule out "retaliating more harshly". Bao Chengzhang, an associate researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the loss of its core leadership may lead Iran to take more intense retaliatory actions to maintain the legitimacy of the regime and domestic cohesion, so the region still faces the risk of conflict escalation.
However, the scale and effect of Iran's subsequent retaliation against the United States and Israel will be limited by its military reserves and war damage. U.S. and British military experts have analyzed that it is currently uncertain how many ballistic missiles Iran still has in stock. Its large-scale counterattack capability may only last a few days, while a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group can perform hundreds of attack missions in a single day and can continue operations for several weeks.
Stavridis and many other experts believe that in addition to direct military retaliation, Iran has "many cards" in its hands, including mobilizing regional forces such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi armed forces to expand its front, continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, an energy channel, and launching attacks on U.S. personnel in the Middle East.
Bao Chengzhang said that Iran's current military retaliation against the United States and Israel and its announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz indicate that its retaliation mechanism is operating and that the conflict may continue until its arms are exhausted or diplomatic mediation occurs. At the same time, changes in Iran's political situation will also affect the duration of the conflict. The possibility of Iran seeking a compromise with the United States in order to reduce losses cannot be ruled out.
How will the landscape of the Middle East change?
The murder of Khamenei and the further weakening of Iran's strength will also have an impact on the political landscape of the Middle East.
The National Public Radio article analyzed that Israel has continued to weaken Iran's proxy power in the region in recent years, and the United States and Israel's concentrated attacks on Iran's leadership will undoubtedly severely damage the anti-American and anti-Israel camps in the Middle East. Experts on Middle East issues believe that as the influence of the "Resistance Front" led by Iran has significantly weakened, Israel's geographical advantage in the Middle East may be consolidated.
This is a plume of smoke taken in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on March 1. Xinhua News Agency/AP
Bao Chengzhang believes that after Khamenei's death, Iran will most likely continue to retaliate against US military bases in countries in the Middle East. This will arouse dissatisfaction in relevant countries and may deepen the latter's security dependence on the United States.
Mark Lynch, a professor of international politics at George Washington University in the United States, believes that Iran has previously built a proxy network in the Middle East and developed grievances with neighboring countries, which is an important reason why some regional countries rely on the United States. If Iran adjusts its policies in the future, the peripheral countries' perception of Iran's threat will decline, and their concerns about U.S. policy uncertainty will deepen, which will weaken the security ties between the Gulf countries and the United States.
Experts believe that the current conflict is still ongoing and full of variables. If it slides into a protracted and uncertain regional war, it will not only endanger the security and stability of the Middle East, but may also cause far-reaching changes in the regional structure. "Trump ignored all warnings and will have to face the consequences of this gamble," said Max Butt, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank.
