The latest news comes that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an attack. Some people are asking: What will happen next for Iran? Will you stop resisting?
First of all, does anyone think that after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran will have no choice but to compromise with the United States and Israel?
We don’t even need to look too far for an example, look at Venezuela.
Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the United States. Have they completely turned to the United States?
Judging from public information:
Venezuela did have its first contact with the United States since 2019.
However, Venezuela still insists on demanding the release of Maduro and still adheres to pluralistic diplomacy.
The situation that some people imagined did not happen at all.
Secondly, let’s look at the specifics of the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran.
Israel is obviously targeting many high-level people in Iran. For example, according to the United States and Israel’s own sources,
Israel also attacked Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
If I remember correctly, these two top Iranian officials basically maintained at least a relatively open attitude towards the United States and the West.
But Israel also attacks such people, which shows its attitude towards Iran.
In addition, there are also Israeli open source information accounts claiming that Israel has indeed carried out a comprehensive attack on Iran, even the Iranian navy, which is not that powerful in relative strength. The information that can be collected so far in this regard (not fully confirmed) is:
The Iranian frigate "Jamaran" was attacked by an air strike.
Iranian naval bases in Sistan and Balochistan were also attacked.
This comprehensive attack can at least prove a few points:
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be using military conflicts to continue his political career. Judging from some previous conflicts, Netanyahu can be said to be undecided and take the initiative to participate in or even initiate conflicts.
As long as the conflict continues, Netanyahu's position will endure.
Is US President Trump seeking prestige and results for his faction in the midterm elections?
It may be too early to say now, after all, the midterm elections are still some time away.
But there is an entry point that is very interesting.
It’s the trend of crude oil.
Near Iran is the Strait of Hormuz,
About 20% of the world’s crude oil transportation passes through here.
As long as there is conflict with Iran,
It will definitely affect the trend of crude oil.
For someone like Trump who creates economic trends and secretly makes money behind his back?
Would he let this opportunity pass?
So if Iran's direction is to stop and fight, it may be the most beneficial for Trump to make money for himself, but further observation is needed.
So how can Iran withstand the current situation?
I guess it depends on the intensity of Iran's "external operations".
Specifically, it is for the United States and Israel to weigh whether they can afford to be counterattacked by Iran.
Israel is a small country and obviously lacks depth.
Will their economy be able to withstand long-term air raids?
For the United States, they have many military bases near Iran, such as:
UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Judging from the news from the United States' own think tank, the Institute of War, Iran has indeed recently attacked these US military bases.
So in this round of confrontation,
It is the United States and Israel that are better able to intercept incoming drones and missiles from Iran, and then attack these weapons stored, produced and transported by Iran.
Or will Iran's attack first make the United States and Israel unbearable, forcing them to sit down at the negotiating table again?
This may be a better viewing angle.
