On the first trading day after the holiday, the onshore RMB hit a new high against the US dollar. On the 24th, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar opened slightly higher and rose strongly in the afternoon, driving the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to shift from depreciation to appreciation.
On the 24th, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar appreciated to a maximum of 6.8804, and the offshore RMB exchange rate to the U.S. dollar appreciated to a maximum of 6.8760, both continuing to hit their highest appreciation levels since April 28, 2023.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, analyzed that first of all, the improvement of the external environment is an important background for the strengthening of the renminbi. Since November 2025, Sino-US economic and trade relations have stabilized, and my country's overall external environment has tended to ease.
Secondly, the weakness of the US dollar opens up room for appreciation of non-US currencies. "Recently, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The independence of the Federal Reserve has been further impacted, and the U.S. dollar has been under pressure; the 'interest rate cut + balance sheet reduction' proposal of the new Federal Reserve Chairman has not yet reversed the decline of the U.S. dollar." Wang Qing said.
Third, the concentrated release of corporate foreign exchange settlement demand formed seasonal support. Wang Qing believes that as the RMB continues to strengthen, the demand for foreign exchange settlement accumulated during the previous high growth in exports is accelerating, which, coupled with the traditional peak season for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, jointly pushes up the exchange rate.
In addition, Wang Qing also said that with the offshore RMB leading the rise, the high sentiment in the foreign exchange market during this period has also become an important factor in boosting the stronger RMB trend.
The Huatai Futures research report pointed out that the recent performance of the RMB has been relatively stable, and it is not simply driven by the fluctuations of the US dollar, but endogenous pricing factors dominate. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the foreign exchange supply side remains stable; from the perspective of policy pricing, the central parity pricing deviation has gradually converged from negative to close to zero, which is more reflected in following market fluctuations.
Economic Daily WeChat Comprehensive 21st Century Economic Report, Beijing Business Daily
