Iran says it will complete draft nuclear deal within 3 days, US’s largest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier enters Mediterranean Sea
The day after the United States issued another "ultimatum" to Iran, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 20th that the draft of the nuclear agreement would be completed within 2 to 3 days and handed over to the United States after it is finally approved by Iranian leaders.
US President Trump confirmed on the same day that he was considering a "preliminary limited military strike" against Iraq. Some U.S. officials revealed that the U.S. strike against Iran may include targeted killings and promoting regime change in Tehran.
Although both sides have stated that they hope to reach an agreement, from a realistic perspective, the war between the United States and Iran is imminent. Analysts believe that if the United States uses force against Iraq, it will have unpredictable and extremely destructive chain consequences.
The United States again warns of pressure as the largest aircraft carrier approaches the Middle East
U.S. President Trump spoke twice about the Iranian issue on the 20th and increased pressure on Iran. U.S. officials claim that U.S. military planning for Iraq has entered a more advanced stage.
Trump confirms considering "limited" strike against Iran
On the 20th local time, Trump confirmed to the media before a working breakfast with U.S. governors at the White House that he was considering a "preliminary limited military strike" against Iran. But he did not elaborate on this.
The White House (file photo)
At the White House press conference that day, he issued a warning to Iran, saying that a "fair agreement" should be reached.
US official: Military planning upgrade may involve targeted killings
CCTV reporters learned on the 20th that two U.S. officials revealed that the U.S. military’s military planning against Iran has entered a more advanced stage, including carrying out targeted strikes on individual personnel and even promoting regime change in Tehran under the orders of President Trump.
The latest planning shows that the United States is formulating a more specific and targeted attack plan and is waiting for Trump's final decision.
A U.S. official mentioned that Israel’s targeted strikes during last year’s 12-day conflict with Iraq proved “the practicality of targeted elimination of command-level targets,” especially against members of the Revolutionary Guards’ command chain. But at the same time, it was emphasized that precision strikes require a high degree of intelligence support and may bring the risk of collateral casualties.
America’s largest aircraft carrier sails into Mediterranean Sea
At present, the US military has deployed a large number of military forces in the Middle East, mainly focusing on aircraft carrier battle groups and fighter formations. US mainland strategic bombers can also take part in the operation.
The USS Ford aircraft carrier has sailed into the Mediterranean (Source: BBC)
According to the latest news, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the United States, and an escort destroyer appeared near Gibraltar. The USS Ford aircraft carrier has passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean Sea.
The White House previously ordered the deployment of a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. The "Ford" aircraft carrier and its escort ships were dispatched from the Caribbean to the Middle East and will join the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf.
Iran: The only solution is diplomacy, "to finalize the draft agreement within three days"
On the 20th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that there is no military solution to Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, and the only solution is diplomacy.
“The draft agreement will be finalized within three days.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi (file photo)
Araghchi said that both Iran and the United States hope to reach an agreement as soon as possible, and the only problem is how to reach a "fair, win-win, and just" agreement.
He also said that Iran decided to draft a possible agreement to discuss the draft at the next negotiation and start negotiations on the text. "I believe it can be completed in two or three days." After final confirmation by high-level officials, the draft will be handed over to the special envoy of the U.S. President, Witkov.
Talk and prepare for war
While Iran is engaging in dialogue and negotiation with the United States, showing its willingness to resolve differences, it is also fully preparing for war, demonstrating its determination to defend itself and its ability to fight back.
As the United States continues to increase military pressure, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy held a real-force exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from the 16th to the 17th. Its warships launched new missiles and drone units conducted offensive drills.
On the 19th, the Iranian Navy and the Russian Navy held a one-day joint exercise in the Sea of Oman and the northern waters of the Indian Ocean.
The Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations stated in an official letter to the United Nations Security Council on the 19th that Iran does not seek tension or war, nor will it actively provoke war. In the event of military aggression, Iran will respond and all bases, facilities and assets of "hostile forces" in the region will become legal targets.
If the United States uses force against Iraq, it will lead to multiple responses
Analysts believe that the Trump administration is trying to use extreme military pressure to force Iran to make concessions in negotiations, that is, to "obtain maximum benefits at the minimum cost." If that fails, it may launch a military strike against Iran.
What will be the consequences if the United States uses force against Iran? The BBC cited several possibilities.
Several possibilities resulting from U.S. military operations:
1. The U.S. military’s naval and air forces carried out limited precision strikes against the military bases, ballistic missile launch and storage facilities of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its affiliated “Basij” militia, as well as Iran’s nuclear projects to overthrow the current Iranian regime.
2. The U.S. military’s strikes failed to overthrow the Iranian regime, but forced it to adjust its policies, reduce its support for armed forces in many regions of the Middle East, and stop or scale back its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
3. After the collapse of the current Iranian regime, a powerful military government led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will replace it.
Possible retaliatory measures by Iran:
1. Launch missile and drone attacks on some US military bases and targets in Israel and the Middle East.
2. Lay mines in the waters of the Persian Gulf.
3. Sink U.S. warships. A U.S. Navy officer said that if Iran uses a large number of drones and high-speed torpedo boats at once, no matter how powerful the U.S. shipboard defense system is, it will not be able to withstand such a saturation attack.
Overall, the United States' use of force against Iran may have unpredictable and extremely destructive chain consequences.
However, analysts say that the United States has not yet taken action because it has military considerations and multiple concerns.
First of all, the United States is still deploying more military forces, especially waiting for the second aircraft carrier strike group to arrive in the Middle East. Secondly, the United States is worried about triggering a long-term, large-scale conflict and consuming its strategic resources and energy. In addition, they are also worried about triggering violent fluctuations in the global energy market and harming their own economy.
Judging from domestic public opinion in the United States, a Quinnipiac University poll in January this year showed that 70% of American voters do not want the United States to use force against Iran. If the use of force against Iraq fails to achieve obvious "results" and instead attracts domestic and international criticism, and even hurts the U.S. economy, the Trump administration's domestic approval rating may further decline. This year is a midterm election year for the U.S. Congress, and this political cost is also an important concern for the Trump administration.
