UBS said that the strong rise in U.S. stocks in August 2025 was driven by EPS revisions, and the market faced a turning point in September. Although economic data shows no signs of slowing down yet, excessive positioning and reliance on Fed policy make the market vulnerable. Cyclical indices near all-time highs
The market is always in a game of long and short. The market sometimes rises strongly and sometimes falls sharply. You can't control the direction of the market. The only thing we can do is to preserve the principal. When the market is unclear, we can exit the position and wait and see. There is no need to consume your energy because of the unknown trend. Is the market going up or down? The most important thing to worry about is what countermeasures you will take in response to market changes, how much profit you can make when you are right, and how much profit you can make when you are wrong, and how you can avoid it immediately.
Today’s market news:
International gold prices fell slightly to a five-week low of US$1,203.96 per ounce on Thursday (March 9). Before the US non-farm payrolls report was released on Friday (March 10), the US dollar rose, putting pressure on gold prices. As of now, gold is trading at $1,205.30 per ounce, down slightly by 0.24%; the U.S. dollar index is running at 102.17, up slightly by 0.07%. Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for February to be released on Friday to gauge the state of the U.S. economy. Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed was ready to raise interest rates if employment and inflation remained firm.
Midnight gold market analysis:
Let’s take a look at the gold market first. The price of gold has been falling all the way recently, from the confirmed top at 1263 to the subsequent short selling and high altitude. When the top was initially determined, gold was still accelerating to break through 1245 US dollars. When the decline was officially established, many people were looking at 1300 US dollars or even higher. Who knew that the rapid decline of gold was a blow to the bulls. Yesterday, it continued the downward trend of the previous two consecutive days, and the market opened low at 121 in early trading. After reaching the position of 5.1, the market began to rise. After reaching the highest position of 1218.5, the market began to fall. From the 4-hour chart, the price of gold is in a downward price channel. It has closed for 7 consecutive negative days. The short positions have been arranged. Falling, so the teacher’s view on gold today is still high-altitude. The rebound is short at 1210-1212. The target is 1206 and 1200-1198. If it falls below, the competition for the 1192-1190 range is below.
Midnight silver market analysis:
Let’s look at the silver market again. The trend of silver is similar to that of gold. It has also entered a downward trend overdue. Looking at the daily chart, when the upper part touches the downward trend high pressure of 18.45 US dollars, a big negative line is pulled down. In the evening, it breaks the level and accelerates the decline. It reaches 17.20 US dollars, basically close to the 17 US dollars mark. However, It hasn't arrived yet, which means that silver still has room to fall, so today's operation is to wait for the market to rise to the high point of 17.21-17.30 to go short. It is not recommended that you directly pursue the short position. The defensive stop loss band can change its position at 17.5. The lower target is 17.193, and if it falls below, the 17 integer mark will be competed for.
Investment is risky, so be cautious when placing orders! The market is changing rapidly. Due to the delay between the publication time of the article and the current price, the above suggestions are for reference only. For more real-time entry points during the day, please contact the author He Yongming for intraday tips).
2017 is destined to be the foreign exchange market. It is the only investment market in the world in which everyone from the World Bank to the common people participates. The key reason why the United States can dominate the world depends on the hegemony of the US dollar. The exchange rate war has risen to the highest national financial war!
If you have the courage to invest, I have the strength to make you money. Teacher He’s circle of friends verification: jinding92035
According to CCTV news, on March 8, local time, representatives of the expert meeting of Mazandaran Province in Iran stated that the members of the expert meeting have fulfilled their duties and the successor to Khamenei’s legacy will be officially announced soon.
He pointed out that the expert meeting has never been under such intense pressure as now, with hostile forces trying to force the meeting to abandon its selected candidates, but members withstood external interference.
Previous news showed that the Iranian expert meeting had made a final decision on the candidate for the new supreme leader on the 8th, but the name of the new supreme leader was not disclosed.
Some analysts pointed out that the most important reason for the delay in announcing the final results was safety issues.
The Israel Defense Forces also issued a threat that day that it would continue to hold Khamenei's successor and anyone who tries to appoint him accountable, and would continue to target Khamenei's successor.
File photo of Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Source: Visual China
On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that there are currently many rumors about the next supreme leader, but we must wait for the expert meeting to be officially convened and the vote to be completed.
Araghchi said that Iran does not allow anyone to interfere in Iran's internal affairs. This is an internal matter for the Iranian people and has nothing to do with anyone else.
He also said that the United States and Israel need to explain why they started the war before they can talk about a ceasefire.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many of his relatives were killed in the attack.
Iran held a farewell ceremony for Khamenei on the evening of March 4, and the ceremony lasted for three days. Khamenei will be buried in Iran's holy city of Mashhad, with a funeral date yet to be announced.
UBS recently stated that the strong rise in the U.S. stock market in August 2025 was mainly driven by EPS revisions. However, with the advent of September - the most negative seasonal month in the history of the S&P 500 - the market faced a turning point. The bank warned that although the economic data showed no signs of slowing down, excessive positions and reliance on the Federal Reserve policy made the market vulnerable, and investors needed to be wary of systemic risks.
The strongest wave of EPS revisions since the COVID-19 pandemic not only pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 higher, but also significantly affected assets with unbalanced positions.
Cyclical growth impulses and Federal Reserve policy expectations further strengthened market optimism. A UBS report shows that the cyclical index (vs. defensive index) is near all-time highs, reflecting the market's pricing of economic growth impulses. Investor confidence stems from the impending enactment of the Big Beauty Act and the passing of weak non-farm payrolls data.
Economic indicators do not point to a material slowdown in growth. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish signal for a September interest rate cut became a key driver. Investors "romanticized" the dovish Fed in the context of positive growth and encouraged maintaining risk positions. The report pointed out that attempts to short risk assets have repeatedly failed recently, highlighting the strength of the current environment.
Risks continue to accumulate
UBS highlighted negative seasonal risks in September, the worst month in SPX history. The market is already at historical highs, but seasonal factors usually intensify after mid-September, coinciding with the FOMC meeting, increasing the probability of a correction.
Specific risks include: AI leading stocks (such as Nvidia) may "rest" after the earnings report, resulting in a lack of momentum in the market; the risk of non-farm payroll data or CPI data being less than expected (the bank's economics team predicts non-farm payrolls in September will be 70,000, lower than the consensus of 75,000). Any reading that questions growth may trigger a sharp decline in U.S. stocks; the level of positions has reached the highest point since April, especially systemic funds, which can easily trigger systemic selling.
UBS's early warning signals are no longer bullish, indicating accumulation of downside risks, with models predicting an increased chance of the S&P 500 falling more than 5% over the next month.
hedging strategy
UBS recommends a cautious defensive approach. Given that price action was affected by low liquidity in late August (with many people on vacation), the bank recommends reducing exposure ahead of non-farm payrolls data. Specific strategies include: buying put options on the Russell 2000 Index (IWM.US) as protection against Friday’s data event; buying gold ETF October call options; and going long the software sector rather than the semiconductor sector because of Nvidia’s weakness.
【1】Hospitals “dare not go out”, scientific research “can’t be done”, and patients “can’t get it”
Zhu Tongyu analyzed the problem and pointed out the causes of triple obstruction.
The first is that hospitals “don’t dare to go out”: compliance risks and liability avoidance. Current laws and regulations are extremely strict on accountability for medical data leaks. Hospitals lack the ability to distinguish between "original data" and "data value." It is difficult to judge which cooperation is compliant and can only choose the most conservative solution. In this high-pressure environment, hospital administrators' preferred strategy is to restrict data outflows "one size fits all."
The second is that scientific research is “impossible”: the governance chain is broken. The cross-organizational data retrieval rate is less than 15%, unstructured data accounts for more than 70%, and the data missing rate and incorrect coding rate exceeds 30%. Without professional data management, these "dirty data" cannot support high-quality AI model training. AI companies are difficult to enter, and hospitals themselves lack governance capabilities, creating an endless cycle.
Finally, patients “cannot get it”: obstacles to the realization of rights. Although policies encourage the expansion of the scope of openness of health and medical data to individuals, in practice, patients who want to obtain their complete electronic medical records often face problems such as cumbersome procedures, inconsistent formats, and even rejection.
【2】Comprehensive promotion of the “trusted data space” model
While pointing out the problem, he also proposed a solution, which is to build a "three-way win-win" mechanism.
First, use technology to break the situation and comprehensively promote the "trusted data space" model. The core idea is to change the traditional idea of "data relocation" and implement a new model in which "data does not leave the domain, knowledge can be circulated, and value can be shared".
Specifically, there are three points:
1. Building a trusted data space for the industry: Drawing on the successful experience of Guangzhou’s trusted data space for the health industry, the National Health Commission, in conjunction with the National Data Administration, will pilot the construction of a trusted medical data space in key cities and hospital groups.
2. Deploy privacy computing and intelligent computing power: Deploy technical facilities such as privacy computing and federated learning in the data space, and provide hospitals with intelligent computing power support. The algorithm models of AI companies run in the hospital, and the data are managed and trained locally. Only the parameters and results are taken away, and the original data always remains in the hospital.
3. Build a unified multi-modal common data model (SZCDM): It will greatly improve the efficiency of unstructured data processing and significantly reduce the cost of data cleaning.
The second is compliance protection, establishing hierarchical authorization and full-process traceability mechanisms. The core idea is to transform hospitals from "not daring to go out" to "going out in compliance with regulations." There must be clear rules and traceable technical guarantees.
There are also three specific suggestions:
1. Implement the minimum necessary principle and hierarchical management: follow the minimum available principle and clarify hierarchical access rights for different scenarios such as clinical diagnosis and treatment, scientific research, and teaching.
2. Introduce digital contracts and audit closed loop: Introduce a "digital contract" mechanism into the data space, sign a smart contract for each usage scenario, clarify the purpose, authority and time limit, and achieve full process traceability through blockchain technology.
3. Clarify data ownership and authorization mechanisms: Micro level: Medical and health data involving individuals is personal information, and applications must respect patients’ right to informed consent. For scientific research purposes, a dynamic and specific secondary consent mechanism needs to be established. Macro level: Medical institutions are responsible for application management of desensitized anonymized data, but they must be supervised by government departments.
The last step is to empower patients: get through the “last mile” of data acquisition. The core idea is that patients are the source of data, and they must be made the beneficiaries of data value release, rather than bystanders.
Specific suggestions include:
1. Build a unified patient data query and download platform: Relying on the national national health information platform, promote the construction of a unified "resident health record access portal" in all provinces and cities. After passing the real-name authentication, patients can download their complete electronic medical record data (including structured data and imaging materials) with one click, breaking the deadlock of "the data can be viewed but not taken".
2. Standardize data formats and interface standards: Mandate that patient export data provided by medical institutions comply with national health informatization standards to ensure that data can be identified and reused when patients are transferred between different hospitals.
3. Establish a data circulation mechanism authorized by patients: In scenarios such as patient diagnosis and treatment or commercial health insurance claims, patients are allowed to authorize their data to third-party organizations through authorization codes and other methods to achieve "data follows the patient". Beijing has proposed to explore the establishment of a medical insurance and medical data sharing mechanism to provide support for quick claims for commercial health insurance. This is a typical case of benefiting patients.
The value of medical data cannot be released at the expense of security, nor can innovation be hindered by wasting food. The key to solving the dilemma of "data not being discharged from the hospital" is to build a new data ecosystem with "technically controllable, clear rules, benefit sharing, and patient benefit". It is recommended that relevant departments introduce detailed policies as soon as possible to support the construction of a trusted data space and promote the transformation of medical data from a "sleeping asset" to a "flowing engine."
Reporting from Beijing by Jiupai News special correspondent Li Yang
Editor Wu Diwu Feifei
1. Can I get commission rebates when purchasing car insurance from PICC?
Answer: It is true that you can get rebates when purchasing PICC auto insurance, but the prerequisite is that you have not had a car accident in the previous year and have not applied for auto insurance claims before there will be rebates. If you have applied for auto insurance claims in the previous year, there will be no rebates.
1. PICC compulsory traffic insurance rebate:
In the first year, there is no discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 950 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 1,100 yuan.
In the second year, there is a 10% discount, the price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 855 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 990 yuan.
In the third year, there is a 20% discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 760 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 880 yuan.
For the fourth year and above, there is a 30% discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 665 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 770 yuan.
2. PICC commercial auto insurance rebate:
The maximum rebate for PICC commercial auto insurance is 30%, but usually no more than 30%.
Auto insurance rebates are divided into exact rebates and informal rebates.
Among them, formal rebates are discounts that can be enjoyed without claims, while informal rebates refer to car insurance sales staff rebates to customers in cash or other forms.
2. How much is the renewal price of PICC auto insurance in 2023?
My friend just bought PICC car insurance a few days ago. The car is 6 years old. Before the expiration of the car insurance contract, he accidentally got into two traffic accidents and made two claims. The detailed price of renewing PICC car insurance a few days ago is as follows:
After two accidents, the premium payable for 2023 PICC Auto Insurance was 2,921.92 yuan, with a rebate of 120 yuan, and the final actual payment was 2,801 yuan.
The guarantee content is as follows:
1. Motor vehicle loss insurance amount: 59526.40 yuan
2. Motor vehicle third party liability insurance coverage: 1,500,000 yuan
3. Complimentary value-added services:
Additional motor vehicle value-added service special terms (road assistance service): 7 times
Additional special terms for value-added motor vehicle services (driving service): 1 time
Additional special terms for motor vehicle value-added services (inspection delivery service): 1 time
To sum up, PICC auto insurance is still very user-friendly. Generally, auto insurance has made claims and there is no commission rebate when renewing the insurance. However, PICC will still give car owners part of the rebate for commercial auto insurance, which shows that PICC auto insurance is most beneficial to car owners.
And I heard from my friend that the service of PICC Auto Insurance is also very good!
① Support the "extremely fast" service of paying compensation first and repairing the car later; the "double-free" service that eliminates the need to fill in documents and accident explanations; and provide one-hour notice for compensation for cases of less than 10,000 yuan.
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③Because there are insurance service outlets all over the country, and the service coverage can reach villages, it supports national general compensation and exclusive electronic survey and claim settlement; nationwide 24/7 survey and claims consulting services; and free 50-kilometer rescue service for broken down vehicles nationwide (except for some traffic management sections) (excluding material costs).
If you are interested in the "People's Insurance Company Auto Insurance 2023 Latest Quotation Form" and want to know more, you can click "Consult now and get a free plan", and customer service will provide free consultation and free quotation.
China News Service, Beijing, March 8 (Reporters: Zhang Ni, Liu Meiling, Chang Tao, Chen Wentao) More than 33 million families in China receive child care subsidies. The central and local governments have invested more than 100 billion yuan in child care subsidies, with a total of 6.6 million child care places.
During the National Two Sessions, this heart-warming data about family well-being attracted attention. Behind this is the fact that China is focusing on building a child-friendly society during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
How can ordinary families dare to have children, be able to raise them, and raise them well? Zheng Gongcheng, deputy to the National People's Congress and president of the China Society of Social Security, expressed concern for "mothers". He noted that although childbirth has been included in medical insurance, only female employees who have participated in maternity insurance are eligible to receive maternity benefits, and some women who have given birth have not enjoyed it. "This situation needs to change as soon as possible."
Zheng Gongcheng also suggested the establishment of a "mother's pension" system, which would treat the time of raising a baby (such as one or two years) as payment time to ensure that the pension benefits of women who give birth are not affected by childcare. "This system design links fertility contribution with security in later life, which reflects the institutional recognition of the social value of women's fertility."
"Infants aged 0 to 3 years old in rural areas face difficult problems such as 'no one to take care of them' and 'not taking care of them properly.'" Fu Qingmei, deputy to the National People's Congress and deputy head of Hezhang County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, called attention to the "parenting dilemma" faced by grassroots rural areas.
Fu Qingmei believes that infant care services in rural areas face problems such as resource shortages, talent shortages, and lack of standards. She recommends promoting the construction of a rural infant care service system so that rural infants aged 0 to 3 can grow and develop in a scientific, standardized, and reasonable nurturing environment.
In response to social concerns, the draft outline of the "15th Five-Year Plan" has included content such as "expanding the coverage of the maternity insurance system" and "accelerating the construction of an inclusive child care service system", and clearly proposes "optimizing fertility support policies and incentives to effectively reduce the cost of family fertility, childcare and education."
"In the past, everyone was concerned about whether they could afford to have children, but now they are more concerned about whether they can raise children well and whether they can be supported." Yao Jinbo, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman and CEO of 58.com, believes that fertility support depends on system design and building a comprehensive support system covering the growth cycle from 0 to 18 years old. Supporting every aspect of marriage, pregnancy and parenting can make families more confident and more predictable when making fertility decisions.
Zheng Gongcheng said that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for establishing and improving the policy system for childbirth and childcare. Sharing childbirth costs and resolving childcare anxiety with the help of the system can provide a solid foundation for every family to "dare to have children and be able to raise children." (over)
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