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The Draft Of The 15th Five-Year Plan Of The National Two Sessions Has Many Highlights, And People’s Livelihood Indicators Have Attracted Much Attention-Lijin Finance

The Draft Of The 15th Five-Year Plan Of The National Two Sessions Has Many Highlights, And People’s Livelihood Indicators Have Attracted Much Attention

Building an employment-friendly development model, reducing the cost of childbirth and education for families, plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents, expanding high-quality higher education resources, strengthening the medical and health base, and high-quality insurance participation... During this year's national "Two Sessions"

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Newsflash

  • UBS Warns: Negative Seasonal Risks In September May Cause SPX Correction, Investors Need To Be Vigilant

    UBS recently stated that the strong rise in the U.S. stock market in August 2025 was mainly driven by EPS revisions. However, with the advent of September - the most negative seasonal month in the history of the S&P 500 - the market faced a turning point. The bank warned that although the economic data showed no signs of slowing down, excessive positions and reliance on the Federal Reserve policy made the market vulnerable, and investors needed to be wary of systemic risks.

    spx_S&P 500 Seasonal Risk_US Stock Market EPS Correction

    The strongest wave of EPS revisions since the COVID-19 pandemic not only pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 higher, but also significantly affected assets with unbalanced positions.

    Cyclical growth impulses and Federal Reserve policy expectations further strengthened market optimism. A UBS report shows that the cyclical index (vs. defensive index) is near all-time highs, reflecting the market's pricing of economic growth impulses. Investor confidence stems from the impending enactment of the Big Beauty Act and the passing of weak non-farm payrolls data.

    Economic indicators do not point to a material slowdown in growth. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish signal for a September interest rate cut became a key driver. Investors "romanticized" the dovish Fed in the context of positive growth and encouraged maintaining risk positions. The report pointed out that attempts to short risk assets have repeatedly failed recently, highlighting the strength of the current environment.

    Risks continue to accumulate

    UBS highlighted negative seasonal risks in September, the worst month in SPX history. The market is already at historical highs, but seasonal factors usually intensify after mid-September, coinciding with the FOMC meeting, increasing the probability of a correction.

    Specific risks include: AI leading stocks (such as Nvidia) may "rest" after the earnings report, resulting in a lack of momentum in the market; the risk of non-farm payroll data or CPI data being less than expected (the bank's economics team predicts non-farm payrolls in September will be 70,000, lower than the consensus of 75,000). Any reading that questions growth may trigger a sharp decline in U.S. stocks; the level of positions has reached the highest point since April, especially systemic funds, which can easily trigger systemic selling.

    UBS's early warning signals are no longer bullish, indicating accumulation of downside risks, with models predicting an increased chance of the S&P 500 falling more than 5% over the next month.

    hedging strategy

    UBS recommends a cautious defensive approach. Given that price action was affected by low liquidity in late August (with many people on vacation), the bank recommends reducing exposure ahead of non-farm payrolls data. Specific strategies include: buying put options on the Russell 2000 Index (IWM.US) as protection against Friday’s data event; buying gold ETF October call options; and going long the software sector rather than the semiconductor sector because of Nvidia’s weakness.

  • Hospitals, Scientific Research, And Patients Face Data Problems, And Trusted Data Space Models Can Solve The Problem

    【1】Hospitals “dare not go out”, scientific research “can’t be done”, and patients “can’t get it”

    Zhu Tongyu analyzed the problem and pointed out the causes of triple obstruction.

    The first is that hospitals “don’t dare to go out”: compliance risks and liability avoidance. Current laws and regulations are extremely strict on accountability for medical data leaks. Hospitals lack the ability to distinguish between "original data" and "data value." It is difficult to judge which cooperation is compliant and can only choose the most conservative solution. In this high-pressure environment, hospital administrators' preferred strategy is to restrict data outflows "one size fits all."

    The second is that scientific research is “impossible”: the governance chain is broken. The cross-organizational data retrieval rate is less than 15%, unstructured data accounts for more than 70%, and the data missing rate and incorrect coding rate exceeds 30%. Without professional data management, these "dirty data" cannot support high-quality AI model training. AI companies are difficult to enter, and hospitals themselves lack governance capabilities, creating an endless cycle.

    Finally, patients “cannot get it”: obstacles to the realization of rights. Although policies encourage the expansion of the scope of openness of health and medical data to individuals, in practice, patients who want to obtain their complete electronic medical records often face problems such as cumbersome procedures, inconsistent formats, and even rejection.

    【2】Comprehensive promotion of the “trusted data space” model

    While pointing out the problem, he also proposed a solution, which is to build a "three-way win-win" mechanism.

    First, use technology to break the situation and comprehensively promote the "trusted data space" model. The core idea is to change the traditional idea of ​​"data relocation" and implement a new model in which "data does not leave the domain, knowledge can be circulated, and value can be shared".

    Specifically, there are three points:

    1. Building a trusted data space for the industry: Drawing on the successful experience of Guangzhou’s trusted data space for the health industry, the National Health Commission, in conjunction with the National Data Administration, will pilot the construction of a trusted medical data space in key cities and hospital groups.

    2. Deploy privacy computing and intelligent computing power: Deploy technical facilities such as privacy computing and federated learning in the data space, and provide hospitals with intelligent computing power support. The algorithm models of AI companies run in the hospital, and the data are managed and trained locally. Only the parameters and results are taken away, and the original data always remains in the hospital.

    3. Build a unified multi-modal common data model (SZCDM): It will greatly improve the efficiency of unstructured data processing and significantly reduce the cost of data cleaning.

    The second is compliance protection, establishing hierarchical authorization and full-process traceability mechanisms. The core idea is to transform hospitals from "not daring to go out" to "going out in compliance with regulations." There must be clear rules and traceable technical guarantees.

    There are also three specific suggestions:

    1. Implement the minimum necessary principle and hierarchical management: follow the minimum available principle and clarify hierarchical access rights for different scenarios such as clinical diagnosis and treatment, scientific research, and teaching.

    2. Introduce digital contracts and audit closed loop: Introduce a "digital contract" mechanism into the data space, sign a smart contract for each usage scenario, clarify the purpose, authority and time limit, and achieve full process traceability through blockchain technology.

    3. Clarify data ownership and authorization mechanisms: Micro level: Medical and health data involving individuals is personal information, and applications must respect patients’ right to informed consent. For scientific research purposes, a dynamic and specific secondary consent mechanism needs to be established. Macro level: Medical institutions are responsible for application management of desensitized anonymized data, but they must be supervised by government departments.

    The last step is to empower patients: get through the “last mile” of data acquisition. The core idea is that patients are the source of data, and they must be made the beneficiaries of data value release, rather than bystanders.

    Specific suggestions include:

    1. Build a unified patient data query and download platform: Relying on the national national health information platform, promote the construction of a unified "resident health record access portal" in all provinces and cities. After passing the real-name authentication, patients can download their complete electronic medical record data (including structured data and imaging materials) with one click, breaking the deadlock of "the data can be viewed but not taken".

    2. Standardize data formats and interface standards: Mandate that patient export data provided by medical institutions comply with national health informatization standards to ensure that data can be identified and reused when patients are transferred between different hospitals.

    3. Establish a data circulation mechanism authorized by patients: In scenarios such as patient diagnosis and treatment or commercial health insurance claims, patients are allowed to authorize their data to third-party organizations through authorization codes and other methods to achieve "data follows the patient". Beijing has proposed to explore the establishment of a medical insurance and medical data sharing mechanism to provide support for quick claims for commercial health insurance. This is a typical case of benefiting patients.

    The value of medical data cannot be released at the expense of security, nor can innovation be hindered by wasting food. The key to solving the dilemma of "data not being discharged from the hospital" is to build a new data ecosystem with "technically controllable, clear rules, benefit sharing, and patient benefit". It is recommended that relevant departments introduce detailed policies as soon as possible to support the construction of a trusted data space and promote the transformation of medical data from a "sleeping asset" to a "flowing engine."

    Reporting from Beijing by Jiupai News special correspondent Li Yang

    Editor Wu Diwu Feifei

  • Is There Any Commission When Purchasing PICC Auto Insurance? Introduction To 2023 Renewal Prices And Rebate Details

    1. Can I get commission rebates when purchasing car insurance from PICC?

    Answer: It is true that you can get rebates when purchasing PICC auto insurance, but the prerequisite is that you have not had a car accident in the previous year and have not applied for auto insurance claims before there will be rebates. If you have applied for auto insurance claims in the previous year, there will be no rebates.

    1. PICC compulsory traffic insurance rebate:

    In the first year, there is no discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 950 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 1,100 yuan.

    In the second year, there is a 10% discount, the price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 855 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 990 yuan.

    In the third year, there is a 20% discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 760 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 880 yuan.

    For the fourth year and above, there is a 30% discount. The price of compulsory traffic insurance for cars with less than 6 seats is 665 yuan, and the price for cars with 6 seats or more is 770 yuan.

    2. PICC commercial auto insurance rebate:

    The maximum rebate for PICC commercial auto insurance is 30%, but usually no more than 30%.

    Auto insurance rebates are divided into exact rebates and informal rebates.

    Among them, formal rebates are discounts that can be enjoyed without claims, while informal rebates refer to car insurance sales staff rebates to customers in cash or other forms.

    2. How much is the renewal price of PICC auto insurance in 2023?

    My friend just bought PICC car insurance a few days ago. The car is 6 years old. Before the expiration of the car insurance contract, he accidentally got into two traffic accidents and made two claims. The detailed price of renewing PICC car insurance a few days ago is as follows:

    After two accidents, the premium payable for 2023 PICC Auto Insurance was 2,921.92 yuan, with a rebate of 120 yuan, and the final actual payment was 2,801 yuan.

    The guarantee content is as follows:

    1. Motor vehicle loss insurance amount: 59526.40 yuan

    2. Motor vehicle third party liability insurance coverage: 1,500,000 yuan

    3. Complimentary value-added services:

    Additional motor vehicle value-added service special terms (road assistance service): 7 times

    Additional special terms for value-added motor vehicle services (driving service): 1 time

    Additional special terms for motor vehicle value-added services (inspection delivery service): 1 time

    To sum up, PICC auto insurance is still very user-friendly. Generally, auto insurance has made claims and there is no commission rebate when renewing the insurance. However, PICC will still give car owners part of the rebate for commercial auto insurance, which shows that PICC auto insurance is most beneficial to car owners.

    And I heard from my friend that the service of PICC Auto Insurance is also very good!

    ① Support the "extremely fast" service of paying compensation first and repairing the car later; the "double-free" service that eliminates the need to fill in documents and accident explanations; and provide one-hour notice for compensation for cases of less than 10,000 yuan.

    ② Worry-free compensation for personal injury is more "peaceful". Specialists will mediate on-site; notify the compensation on the spot; and handle it quickly at one time.

    ③Because there are insurance service outlets all over the country, and the service coverage can reach villages, it supports national general compensation and exclusive electronic survey and claim settlement; nationwide 24/7 survey and claims consulting services; and free 50-kilometer rescue service for broken down vehicles nationwide (except for some traffic management sections) (excluding material costs).

    If you are interested in the "People's Insurance Company Auto Insurance 2023 Latest Quotation Form" and want to know more, you can click "Consult now and get a free plan", and customer service will provide free consultation and free quotation.

  • China's Childcare Subsidy Exceeds 100 Billion, The Two Sessions Focus On Fertility-friendliness And The Plight Of Rural Childcare

    China News Service, Beijing, March 8 (Reporters: Zhang Ni, Liu Meiling, Chang Tao, Chen Wentao) More than 33 million families in China receive child care subsidies. The central and local governments have invested more than 100 billion yuan in child care subsidies, with a total of 6.6 million child care places.

    During the National Two Sessions, this heart-warming data about family well-being attracted attention. Behind this is the fact that China is focusing on building a child-friendly society during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

    How can ordinary families dare to have children, be able to raise them, and raise them well? Zheng Gongcheng, deputy to the National People's Congress and president of the China Society of Social Security, expressed concern for "mothers". He noted that although childbirth has been included in medical insurance, only female employees who have participated in maternity insurance are eligible to receive maternity benefits, and some women who have given birth have not enjoyed it. "This situation needs to change as soon as possible."

    Zheng Gongcheng also suggested the establishment of a "mother's pension" system, which would treat the time of raising a baby (such as one or two years) as payment time to ensure that the pension benefits of women who give birth are not affected by childcare. "This system design links fertility contribution with security in later life, which reflects the institutional recognition of the social value of women's fertility."

    "Infants aged 0 to 3 years old in rural areas face difficult problems such as 'no one to take care of them' and 'not taking care of them properly.'" Fu Qingmei, deputy to the National People's Congress and deputy head of Hezhang County, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, called attention to the "parenting dilemma" faced by grassroots rural areas.

    Fu Qingmei believes that infant care services in rural areas face problems such as resource shortages, talent shortages, and lack of standards. She recommends promoting the construction of a rural infant care service system so that rural infants aged 0 to 3 can grow and develop in a scientific, standardized, and reasonable nurturing environment.

    In response to social concerns, the draft outline of the "15th Five-Year Plan" has included content such as "expanding the coverage of the maternity insurance system" and "accelerating the construction of an inclusive child care service system", and clearly proposes "optimizing fertility support policies and incentives to effectively reduce the cost of family fertility, childcare and education."

    "In the past, everyone was concerned about whether they could afford to have children, but now they are more concerned about whether they can raise children well and whether they can be supported." Yao Jinbo, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman and CEO of 58.com, believes that fertility support depends on system design and building a comprehensive support system covering the growth cycle from 0 to 18 years old. Supporting every aspect of marriage, pregnancy and parenting can make families more confident and more predictable when making fertility decisions.

    Zheng Gongcheng said that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for establishing and improving the policy system for childbirth and childcare. Sharing childbirth costs and resolving childcare anxiety with the help of the system can provide a solid foundation for every family to "dare to have children and be able to raise children." (over)

  • U.S. Stocks Opened Higher And Moved Lower On November 20. Technology Stocks Led The Decline. Follow Up Trends And Industry Analysis.

    Zhitong Finance APP learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the overall U.S. stock market will fluctuate slightly until the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 10-11, and funds will shift from technology to defensive medical utilities. Afterwards, Trump is expected to nominate a new candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and trading expectations for monetary policy are expected to become looser. Therefore, U.S. stocks may begin to rebound in the second half of December. Resident tax cuts will also begin on January 1 next year. Fundamentals will also provide certain support for employment and consumption. At the industry level, it is recommended to pay attention to: 1) the technology industry in the U.S. stock market, where valuations and performance are more consistent; 2) manufacturing, mid-to-upstream resource products, and energy infrastructure (especially nuclear power) that benefit from the reindustrialization process and favorable policies; 3) the military industry with increased fiscal spending; 4) Internet diagnostics that are benefiting from cuts in medical expenditures; 5) the financial industry (especially banks) during the interest rate cut cycle.

    event:

    On November 20, U.S. stocks opened higher and moved lower as a whole, especially technology stocks, which suffered significant declines. The Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.4% and 4.8% respectively. In particular, some technology stocks (more than 50%) that have experienced significant gains since the beginning of the year, including Micron, AMD, Lam Research, Palantir, etc., have all fallen by more than 5%. However, after Nvidia disclosed its better-than-expected third-quarter report and future guidance, CITIC Securities judged that the overnight decline was more driven by profit-taking driven by macro factors, rather than actual panic selling by investors regarding the bursting of the AI ​​bubble.

    After the release of new U.S. non-farm payrolls data in September, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials heightened expectations for monetary tightening.

    Released on November 20, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in September was 119,000, exceeding market expectations of 51,000. The new non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, coupled with recent hawkish remarks by many Federal Reserve officials, further boosting market expectations for tightening monetary policy. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr said that since the current inflation level is still hovering around 3%, which is still far from the 2% target, interest rate cutting decisions need to be more prudent; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated his stance against further interest rate cuts; even Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who had previously been relatively neutral, expressed uneasiness about further cutting interest rates in December. The hawkish statements of Federal Reserve officials have jointly promoted the market's expectations for re-pricing the path of monetary policy. That is, the Federal Reserve will be more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level rather than cut interest rates at the December interest rate meeting. Even before inflation shows a clear downward trend, it may maintain the current interest rate level for a long time.

    However, the marginal weakening trend of the U.S. job market has not changed, and the market's "hawkish panic" trade in monetary policy may be nearing its peak.

    Judging from labor market data, the U3 unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, while the U6 unemployment rate, which reflects broad unemployment and marginal labor conditions, fell from 8.1% to 8.0%, while the labor force participation rate rebounded to 62.4%. The coexistence of new jobs, rising participation rates and rising unemployment rates indicates that improvements in labor supply and job replacement may occur at the same time. However, the higher-than-expected non-farm employment data does not mean that the U.S. labor market is once again fully prosperous. Considering that the total number of non-farm employment in July and August this year was revised down by 33,000, continuing the downward revision trend this year, the possibility of further downward revision of non-farm employment data from August to September cannot be ruled out in the future. Therefore, the substantial weakening of the U.S. job market may have been masked by the hawkish statements of Federal Reserve officials.

    Looking forward to the market outlook, CITIC Securities predicts that the December Fed interest rate meeting may be the peak of this round of "hawkish panic", and then the main line of market trading may turn to Trump's nomination game for the new Fed chairman; by then, unless a relatively hawkish candidate like Kevin Warsh who does not support QE is nominated, the market is expected to return to the logic of trading loose monetary policy after the dust settles on the new Fed chairman.

    The extreme narrative of the “AI bubble” bursting may be difficult to see in the short term.

    On the demand side, the diversified competitive landscape of China and the United States promotes model iteration and full-stack innovation. According to Google’s performance meeting, Google The monthly Token processing volume soared from 9.7 trillion in April 2024 to 1300 trillion in October 2025. Under the neutral assumption, it is expected that global monthly Token consumption will still increase by 3 times by the end of 2026 compared with the current level, 203 In 2000, with the popularization of multi-modal and AI agents, the capacity may be expanded by 20 times, while supply-side chip and system performance upgrades continue to reduce unit computing power costs, providing support for demand release, and there are still bottlenecks in many links of the supply chain, and concerns about overcapacity are not yet established. At the commercialization level, there is currently a disconnect between token consumption and commercial returns. However, the three major scenarios of advertising placement, Agent Commerce, and enterprise-level solutions are gradually implemented, promoting the transformation of the industry from "scale growth" to "value growth". It is expected that the commercialization breakthrough of SaaS manufacturers in the short and medium term will become the key.

    On the financial side, according to various company performance exchange meetings, the CAPEX of the world's four major technology giants in 2025Q3 totaled +74% year-on-year, and they have revised their guidance upwards. Strong cash flow and policy and tax incentives provide financial support. In terms of risks, CITIC Securities believes that the AI ​​search penetration rate is about to hit the ceiling. Subsequent token growth depends on C-side scenarios and Agent implementation. Debt financing risks are concentrated in small and medium-sized cloud service providers. Ecological cooperation between OpenAI and NVIDIA is difficult to falsify in the short term. Overall, it does not constitute an inducement for the industry bubble to burst.

    U.S. stock performance expectations continue to be revised upward, and valuations have narrowed.

    Since the end of October, U.S. stock performance expectations have continued to be revised upwards, with the upward revisions concentrated in information technology and health care. At the same time, price retracements in the index and multiple sectors combined with profit increases have caused dynamic valuations to narrow to a large extent. According to LSEG data, as of November 21, the SPX500's 2025/2026 revenue growth expectations were revised upwards by 0.1pcts/0.4pcts respectively compared with the end of October, and the profit growth expectations were revised upwards by 0.03pcts/1.0pcts respectively. However, during the same period, the S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 fell 4.2%/6.5% respectively, resulting in a rapid decline in both PE/PEG of US stocks.

    From a structural point of view, the upward revision of revenue growth expectations in 2025 is mainly concentrated in the information technology and financial sectors, with an upward revision of 0.4pcts/0.4pcts respectively; the upward revision of profit growth expectations is mainly concentrated in the real estate, information technology and energy sectors, with an upward revision of 0.7pcts/0.5pcts/0 respectively. .5pcts; the upward revision of revenue growth expectations in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the medical care and communication services sectors, with an upward revision of 1.7pcts/0.8pcts respectively; the upward revision of profit growth expectations is mainly concentrated in the medical care and daily consumption sectors, with an upward revision of 3.6pcts/2.2pcts respectively. During the same period, information technology/non-core consumption/industrial decline and valuation (PE TTM) fell the most. CITIC Securities believes that the recent retracement of U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, is mainly driven by the contraction of valuation multiples rather than the deterioration of profit expectations.

    U.S. stock market outlook: After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December, U.S. stocks are expected to resume their upward trend.

    In the short term, the trading participation of U.S. institutional investors is expected to gradually decline after Thanksgiving on November 27 this year, which may correspond to an increase in retail trading. As for expectations for monetary policy, there may not be any important new economic data disclosed before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December. The CPI data originally planned to be disclosed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor on December 10 will be postponed to December 18. The U.S. Department of Commerce also said that the PCE price index originally planned to be disclosed on November 26 will also be "disclosed at another date." The third-quarter reports of U.S. heavyweights were also expected to be disclosed previously.

    Therefore, CITIC Securities predicts that the overall U.S. stock market will fluctuate slightly until the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 10-11, with funds diverted from technology to defensive medical utilities. Afterwards, Trump is expected to nominate a new candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and trading expectations for monetary policy are expected to become looser. Therefore, U.S. stocks may begin to rebound in the second half of December. Resident tax cuts will also begin on January 1 next year. Fundamentals will also provide certain support for employment and consumption.

    At the industry level, CITIC Securities recommends focusing on: 1) the technology industry in the U.S. stock market, where valuations are more consistent with performance; 2) manufacturing, mid-to-upstream resource products, and energy infrastructure (especially nuclear power) that benefit from the reindustrialization process and favorable policies; 3) military industry with increased fiscal spending; 4) Internet diagnostics that benefit from cuts in medical expenditures; 5) the financial industry (especially banks) during the interest rate cut cycle.

  • Transportation Bottlenecks Impact The Gold Market. How Will The Geopolitical Situation And Price Fluctuations Be Affected?

    Transportation Bottlenecks and the Price of Gold

    Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by about 20%, and once hit a record high above $5,595 per ounce in late January. Ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, have combined to support gold demand.

    However, in Hu Jie's view, before this round of relevant situations escalates, "this round of emotional resonance spurred by geopolitical turmoil is coming to an end. On the one hand, the price of gold is at a high level, and on the other hand, the previous geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, including the relative calm of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the possibility of easing the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. When the intensity of this macro narrative weakens, the market's emotional resonance will show weakness."

    Now, the resurgence of the situation in the Middle East has added various unexpected variables to this decline in sentiment.

    As mentioned earlier, the situation in the Middle East has led to the interruption of air transportation in and out of Dubai, and global gold and silver circulation is suffering a major impact. Traders believe the move could exacerbate precious metals prices that have been volatile this year.

    According to reports, as a global gold transportation hub, Dubai carried about 20% of global gold circulation last year. This includes both gold refined in the UAE and the Eurasian gold trade transiting there.

    Traders and analysts believe that a prolonged disruption to gold and silver shipments could push up regional prices in Asian markets and exacerbate recent volatility in the precious metals market.

    There are also signs that refiners are facing challenges in sourcing semi-refined gold bars that are typically minted at mines. Samit Guha, CEO and managing director of MMTC-PAMP, India's largest precious metal refiner, said that about 10% of the company's gold ingots come from a mine in the Middle East, but the supply has been interrupted. He said logistics costs for new contracts sourced from other regions have soared by 60% to 70% since the conflict began.

    John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, said: "After the grounding of flights in the Middle East, gold supply issues have caused concerns. This is the reason for the sharp fluctuations in domestic gold prices in India."

    Data shows that Dubai will be the world's second largest gold exporter in 2024, and India will be its largest export destination. Rhona O'Connell, director of market analysis at StoneX, also believes that India may be most affected by the disruption in Dubai, as Dubai is a key transit point for precious metals shipped to India.

    "In the short term, people can still manage to cope, but if it lasts for too long, everything will be unpredictable." O'Connell said.

    Chirag Sheth, chief consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus, an analysis agency, believes that in India, one of the largest consumers of gold in Dubai, local buyers still have room to wait. Its recent demand is relatively weak, and large imports in January have inflated inventories. "But if transportation delays continue for several months, problems will emerge."

    There is still a lot of gold blocked

    Since the outbreak of this round of conflicts in the Middle East, most commercial flights in the Gulf region have been suspended. Although a small number of passenger flights took off from Dubai on the 3rd, people familiar with the matter revealed that these flights did not carry gold, and perishable cargo was given priority. As of the 6th, there was still a large amount of gold transportation blocked, although some gold had been loaded onto departure flights in mid-week.

    As mentioned earlier, transportation bottlenecks have caused gold prices to fall further, with the spot price of Dubai Good Delivery standard gold last trading at around US$5,172 per ounce. According to people familiar with the matter, many gold buyers have suspended new orders because they cannot ensure timely delivery and the cost of transportation insurance is too high. To avoid bearing storage and financing costs indefinitely, gold traders are offering a discount of $30 an ounce to London's global benchmark price.

    However, China Business News specifically asked a local resident in Dubai that the prices of gold jewelry she saw in gold stores were the same as before, and the above-mentioned "discount" behavior did not appear on the consumer side.

    As a gold refining and export hub in Asia, the UAE also undertakes gold transportation from Switzerland, the United Kingdom and many African countries. Gold is usually transported in the cargo hold of passenger aircraft. Even though flights in the United Arab Emirates are severely restricted, traders and logistics companies are still reluctant to transfer high-value goods by land to airports in Saudi Arabia, Oman and other countries because of the risks and complicated procedures involved, especially when crossing land borders.

    “There is currently no gold that can be transported by air,” one gold trader said, adding he hoped the disruption would not last long. Gold is usually transported as cargo on passenger planes, with a single transport volume of up to 5 tons, worth approximately US$830 million at current prices.

    Some logistics carriers say they are busy processing gold cargo that has been delivered to airlines at London Heathrow Airport because airlines have been unable to transport the cargo, which has resulted in a large number of "blocked export cargo", that is, cargo that has been submitted for customs clearance but must be formally withdrawn before it can be rerouted.

    Looking forward to the market outlook, Hu Jie told reporters that whether recent emergencies will inject new excitement into the geopolitical narrative is still a matter of debate. "If the conflict becomes protracted, the previous expectations of calm in the conflict area will be subverted; but on the other hand, if this conflict can be resolved in some form in the short term, the market's perception of global instability may change."

    Specifically, some analysts pointed out that if the key waterway in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, the obstruction of shipping and the contraction of energy supply will form a dual drive of risk aversion and inflation, pushing the price of gold to a breakthrough upward, denying that the impact of this fluctuation on the overall inflation and macroeconomic situation will be small, and the market hedging premium will also retreat.

    "It can be seen that the key to the problem is not short-term fluctuations, but the duration of the conflict. The current focus is whether the oil output channel of the Strait of Hormuz will be substantially cut off." Hu Jie explained that although news of the blockade has been spread, the actual impact on the crude oil market is still mainly expected changes at the psychological level, and there has not yet been a price surge directly caused by supply interruption. However, once the strait blockade becomes a reality and becomes long-term, it will inevitably cause a periodic shortage of crude oil supply, thus driving up substantial price increases.

    He also emphasized that, therefore, there are three core variables in the current situation: first, the duration of the conflict; second, whether it will directly impact crude oil supply; third, how long the supply shortage will last. If the superposition of these three factors leads to long-term high oil prices, then a series of subsequent chain problems will be self-evident. At that time, the Fed's policy path must be re-evaluated, including the previously expected two interest rate cuts during the year, which may need to be comprehensively sorted out and adjusted based on inflationary pressures. (Reporter Gao Ya also contributed to this article)

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