Life is difficult and life is not easy. Everyone has their own sufferings and indescribable feelings. People who suffer know best. After rebirth, Teacher Ye Tan changed a lot and became able to endure hardships, both his own and others'.
About 20 years ago, there was a fascinating "magic newspaper" in the movie "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone". The characters in the newspaper pictures will move and the text content will automatically refresh. The plots in science fiction movies at that time have become reality today. We see the pictures and texts in WeChat and the content in handheld readers every day, and we don’t think it is very magical.
This is an interesting topic. The various communication media that people rely on for their lives are actually changing all the time. From handwriting and drawings to electronic diaries, from family photo albums to photo waterfalls in "moments", from theater viewing to video logs on mobile phones, the current media communication conditions and media usage status are no longer what they used to be, and the presentation of literature and art is also constantly changing.
New media literature and art have reshaped our way of life
The changes in the media environment surrounding our work, communication, and entertainment are, in a general sense, a logic of technological evolution. Just as mechanical printing and the postal system gave birth to modern newspapers and magazines, electricity and radio technology gave birth to radio and television, mobile Internet, 5G communications, artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing are the technical basis for all video software and social application scenarios today.
If we carefully consider the above process, we can find that when new media is applied to society, from a time perspective, there are both leap-forward iterations, such as mobile phones replacing wired phones, and gradual changes, such as the resolution of mobile phone screens getting higher and higher. Only when we look back can we realize how far we have come. From a spatial perspective, the diffusion trajectory of new media in the field of literature and art is not like a spoonful of sugar sprinkled into water, which will soon be evenly distributed and invisible. It is more like a drop of ink dripping into water, with a process of spreading out.
At any point in time, we will encounter new ways of playing with new media. As far as the attitude is concerned, those who enjoy it will enjoy it as if they are sweetmeats, while those who resent it will abandon it like a piece of shit. From the printing era to the film era, and then to the radio and television era, this has also happened. The key issues are two: the speed and status of new media literature and art adapting to society, and the speed and status of everyone adapting to new media literature and art.
The staff tasted mountain delicacies at a pastoral table in the woods of Xinsha Island, and conducted a "cloud live broadcast" through a mobile phone live broadcast platform. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Yu
How does new media literature and art adapt to society? In the laboratory and on the drawings, technology is neutral, but once it is among different groups, the use of technology will inevitably be biased. For example, social software is used all over the world, but the content shared by members of different cultural backgrounds on social software has its own characteristics. The various "online articles" that Chinese people are used to and the "eating and broadcasting videos" that are popular among young people in East Asia have obvious regional and cultural characteristics.
Take Kuaishou as an example. In 2011, "GIF Kuaishou", a free software for making and sharing GIF animations, was launched; in 2013, "GIF Kuaishou" transformed from a tool software into a short video community; and now, "Internet celebrity live broadcast" and "live streaming with goods" have become its main profit models. The development trajectory of "Kuaishou" reflects some characteristics of the integration of Chinese new media and literature and art, and also reflects some of the current trends in popular literature and art.
Develop your own ability to adapt to and use new media
How do each of us adapt to new media? This and the previous question are actually two sides of the same coin. On the whole, the speed at which new media spreads in a society depends on the acceptance of a large number of individuals. Since people have different endowments and habits, each individual’s preferences and choices for new media are also different. However, as long as everyone agrees with the view that “new media will replace old media, just as new media in the future will inevitably replace today’s new media,” they should cultivate their own ability to adapt to and use new media.
This kind of adaptation is not unique to today. At the end of the 19th century, with the maturity of photography, mankind entered the age of images, which broke the long-term text tradition. Different from the relatively single and linear communication method of reading text, the communication form in the image era is more diversified and non-linear. Lenses and pictures have become an important part of social culture and people's lives. Information acquisition, knowledge mastery, entertainment and leisure are all increasingly related to the viewing of images. Therefore, our ancestors a hundred years ago overcame their fear of photography and learned to watch movies, and today we learn to shoot videos, which are essentially adaptations to the media ecology.
It was also since the second half of the 19th century that the concept of "adaptation" in biology was introduced into the research field of early Western sociology. The psychological adaptation of individuals in the interaction with the social living environment, that is, the response to culture, values, and lifestyles, is called "social adaptation." Since the 1960s, with the rise of the media industry and media research, individual adaptation to the media ecology has become an important part of "social adaptation". Later, a concept called "media literacy" was created.
Media literacy is a topic that is often talked about and is always new. With the changes of media, new connotations and requirements are constantly emerging. Back then we watched plays in theaters, but in the future more plays will be broadcast on mobile phones. Search for content about "Peking Opera" and "Kunqu Opera" on "Douyin", and you can find a large number of enthusiasts and fans. It can be said that "who said opera does not have TikTok". For another example, if a young person tells you unfamiliar terms such as "barrage", "one-click triple connection", "luzhuanfan", etc., you might as well search for it, learn more about it, or even give it a try. The new media ecology calls for everyone's new media literacy. The literary and artistic ecology under the new media background must also match the new media literacy of the mainstream people.
Let new media cross the technical threshold and become more warm and humane
The social changes brought about by changes in communication methods are by no means limited to the content they convey, but rather the social relations and social structures they affect. New media literature and art has reshaped our lifestyle and reconstructed the media environment including the symbolic environment and the perceptual environment. The process of new media literature and art adapting to society is the process of new media integrating and transforming the existing media ecosystem, thereby forming a symbiotic media ecosystem and literature and art ecosystem.
New media blurs the strict "sender-receiver" relationship in the past, reduces the cost of personal creation and expression, and empowers everyone. If we can correctly understand and handle the relationship between new media and national policies, commercial capital, and public attitudes, and use new media to expand cognitive resources, extend social scenes, inherit excellent culture, and convey true feelings, we can cross the technical threshold and transform new media from a binary digital existence into a warmer and more humane one.
The technical content of mobile phones is getting higher and higher, and the creative functions are becoming more and more powerful. The picture shows consumers experiencing 5G mobile phones. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shen Bohan
Some people say that new media has fragmented time, brought about "fragmented" usage habits of users, led to people's "de-depth" thinking, and made it difficult to distinguish between "virtual" and "reality"... These expressions point directly to the key points of new media. But we must also see that the entire modernization of human society is a process of redefining and recoordinating time and space. As a tool that emerged in the process of modernization, new media has changed the original space-time environment of communication. Our activity space has expanded from offline to online, and new situations such as "cognitive surplus" and "absent presence" have emerged, which essentially promotes people's cooperation and communication. Furthermore, precious ideas are scarce in every era. Rather than saying that new media leads to "de-depth" thinking, it is better to say that human beings will always have to overcome external and internal obstacles to maintain the depth and sharpness of thinking. The "Li Ziqi Video Series" are very short, but they convey the yearning for pastoral life among users around the world. Who can deny its significance?
“Magic newspapers” have become a thing of the past, what will be the next new media? In the short term, it will be wearable devices and more intelligent media. In the long term, it may be further integration of chips and the human body. We have to wait and see what the media will look like in the future, but human literary and artistic activities will always continue to adapt to technology and the communication ecology created by technology.
(Author: Chen Yi is a professor at the School of Communication of Soochow University and a researcher at the Soochow Think Tank of Soochow University)
After deflation for so long, long-awaited inflation is coming?
On March 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced inflation in February 2026. The results showed that China's CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year in February, a new high in the past three years.
This result far exceeded market expectations. Previously, Bloomberg’s survey of domestic and foreign institutions concluded that the CPI was expected to grow by 0.9% year-on-year.
You should know that the data for February does not include the impact of the US-Iran incident on oil prices. In other words, without high oil prices being transmitted to the country, CPI has begun to rise.
Even more staggering is the core CPI. According to calculations by Huatai Securities, after excluding the impact of food and energy prices, the core CPI in February rose sharply to 1.8% year-on-year.
Combining the month-on-month growth rate in January and February, after excluding the Spring Festival effect, it hit the highest value since 2015.
What is the fundamental reason for the rise in CPI?
Deflation has been going on for such a long time, and I feel really uncomfortable seeing such changes in CPI. Why?
Figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that in February, the CPI for urban residents increased by 1.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 0.9% for rural residents.
Friends who have been following Yetan Finance for a long time may still remember that according to our long-term tracking, the CPI in rural areas has been better than that in urban areas for a long time in the past.
The reasons are nothing more than two points:
First, due to a period of sluggish housing prices, urban residents' balance sheets have been more seriously damaged and their willingness to consume is not strong; second, people's livelihood and industrial policies are more tilted towards rural areas, and the channel of Internet + commercial real estate is sinking, which has stimulated the consumption desire of non-urban residents.
What happened in 2026 to cause such a big urban-rural reversal in CPI?
Excluding base effects, some signs may already be there.
We often take Shanghai as an example. Before the second quarter of 2025, Shanghai was still competing with Beijing to see whose consumption was worse. However, with the rise of the stock market, Shanghai's consumption began to pick up in the third quarter, and its performance in the fourth quarter even exceeded the national average.
As the impact of housing prices weakens and the impact of the stock market becomes stronger, I believe more and more cities will move closer to Shanghai.
In addition, the 2026 Spring Festival has a very distinctive feature - the reverse New Year, that is, the children do not return to their hometown, but bring their parents to the city for reunion. This will directly affect urban and rural consumption, causing one to wax and wane.
From the perspective of consumer goods and services, rising prices can be said to be global.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in February, food prices increased by 1.7%, non-food prices increased by 1.3%; consumer goods prices increased by 1.1%, and service prices increased by 1.6%.
Among food, categories such as tobacco, alcohol, and catering have the greatest impact (heaviest weight) on CPI, driving up CPI by 0.41 percentage points with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The price of fresh vegetables increased by more than 10%, leading the CPI to rise by 0.19 percentage points.
Among the main food products in February, eggs, pork and other categories were still lagging behind, and the total dropped the CPI by nearly 0.3 percentage points.
In addition to food, the remaining six categories, 4 rising and 2 falling, and services related to tourism and jewelry consumption all performed outstandingly. Among them, other supplies and services including hotel accommodation, hairdressing and bathing surged 15.4%.
Other supplies and services are also categories that we have been tracking for a long time. We expected that the performance would be good, but we did not expect it to be so good, with a growth rate of 15.4%.
You know, in February 2025, other supplies and services were already at a high base, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%. At the end of 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of this category soared to 17.4%.
In February 2026, other supplies and services will still see double-digit price increases, which shows the popularity of consumer industries such as tourism and bathing.
To sum up, if domestic consumption does not decrease in 2026 and supply is controlled, CPI may indeed exceed expectations.
Compared with CPI, PPI is relatively weaker, but it is also in line with expectations, and there is no "normalized" weakness that is lower than expected.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in February 2026, China's PPI fell by 0.9% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 0.5 percentage points, continuing the past recovery trend; month-on-month, PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in February, which was the same as the increase in January, and also maintained price inertia.
The PPI in February, whether year-on-year or month-on-month, was close to the forecasts of domestic and foreign institutions, which is a rare phenomenon in recent years.
PPI was in line with expectations, CPI far exceeded expectations, and the overall performance of China's price index was outstanding.
According to a March 9 report from GF Securities, the simulated (price) deflator with a CPI and PPI weight of 64 turned positive for the first time in 36 months. This is 3 months earlier than GF had expected.
Will oil prices really cause inflation to rise in China?
Regarding inflation, one unexpected factor that cannot be ignored is oil prices.
Because of Lao Chuan's recklessness, the crude oil market has experienced a huge shock since March. It only took one week to rise from 60+ US dollars to 120 US dollars, and it took less than two days to fall back from 120 US dollars to 80+ US dollars.
With oil prices so stimulating, investors are hedging on a large scale, taking advantage of the fire. For those engaged in economic analysis, such large fluctuations in oil prices are a time to challenge their professional abilities.
If you believe that the conflict will become long-term, oil prices will become the decisive factor in inflation, thus affecting all aspects such as monetary policy, consumption willingness, and market sentiment. If you believe that the conflict is short-term, everything will be bands and pulses, and will not form a long-term climate. Regardless of the economy or policy, it will eventually return to the established path.
How to deal with it? The bottom line principle may be a more appropriate way to respond.
The so-called bottom line is what will happen to inflation in the worst-case scenario.
Recently, many domestic and foreign institutions have made calculations on the correlation between oil prices and inflation, and the conclusions reached are not very different.
Huachuang Securities estimates that every 10% increase in oil prices will boost PPI by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points and CPI by 0.14 percentage points.
The model of West China Securities shows that every 10% increase in domestic oil prices will directly boost PPI by about 0.6 percentage points month-on-month.
At the end of March, if the oil price reaches US$120, the PPI will reach 3% in 2026; if the oil price falls to US$100, the PPI will be around 2%; if the oil price is US$90, the PPI will be between 1.5% and 2%.
Founder Securities said that in 2026, even if the central price of oil prices is US$110, China's CPI will be pulled to 1.1%. Of course, the PPI will be higher, close to 4%.
It is not difficult to see that domestic institutions generally believe that even under the most exaggerated circumstances of oil prices, CPI will not reach the ideal level of 2%. The stimulation of oil prices will help China's inflation return to normal to a certain extent.
Foreign institutions have a more straightforward view.
JP Morgan believes that as the status of new energy continues to improve, the oil consumption of the Chinese economy has dropped significantly in recent years. It is estimated that the transmission coefficient of oil prices to China’s consumer price index is only 0.1.
Deutsche Bank even believes that a sharp rise in oil prices will be a reward for the Chinese economy.
According to Deutsche Bank's estimates, if oil prices rise by 50%, China's PPI can change from a long-term negative number to a healthy range of 3% in one fell swoop, allowing China's industrial sector to quickly achieve reflation and get out of the haze of losses.
The problem of overcapacity can also be solved, because global demand for green energy will surge again.
To sum up, this round of rising oil prices will make the Chinese economy better, rather than making it worse.
The "bottom line" is this, what else is unacceptable?
Of course, there is always a gap between reality and expectations, especially in the time and space where Lao Chuan lives, expectations have long become empty assumptions.
Before March 9, domestic and foreign media seemed to believe that the conflict would become protracted. But on March 10, Lao Chuan suddenly jumped sideways, indicating that everything might end soon. Subsequently, Al Jazeera reported that Tehran's first condition for a ceasefire is that "there will be no further acts of aggression."
As soon as the two pieces of news came out, international oil prices began to plummet.
Almost at the same time, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait announced cuts in oil production, with a total reduction of up to 6.7 million barrels per day. The Group of Seven countries, which had previously been preparing to release oil reserves, also announced that they would not release strategic oil reserves for the time being.
It seems crude oil is no longer an issue.
Too fast.
But, this is Lao Chuan, isn’t it?
Looking at oil prices from Lao Chuan's perspective, everything is logical. In the past, as long as the U.S. stock market was in turmoil, Lao Chuan would change his tune. As long as core voters began to complain and structural support began to loosen, Lao Chuan would stop.
Veteran actors are used to old scripts and can't get out of their comfort zone.
On March 9, before Laochuan jumped, the U.S. stock market hit a key point. Taking Nasdaq as an example, since September 2025, as long as it falls to 22,000 points, Lao Chuan will "rescue the market", and it has worked repeatedly.
On March 9, it reached 22,000 again, and Lao Chuan couldn’t sit still.
In addition, on the trading day before March 9 (March 6), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a very dismal employment data, which may accelerate Lao Chuan's change in attitude.
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. non-farm employment fell by 92,000 in February, significantly lower than market expectations for a growth of 59,000.
AI's impact on employment is becoming increasingly severe, with medical care, information, transportation, and manufacturing being the areas hardest hit by unemployment. The employment situation has deteriorated. If oil prices rise sharply, it is easy to imagine the electoral success of Lao Chuan and the Republican Party.
In fact, the conflict between the United States and Iran that Lao Chuan advocated failed to produce the "gathering of flags" effect he expected.
According to an article in The Economist on March 8, the Gulf War in 1991 caused George Bush's approval rating to soar from 64% to 82%; during the "War on Terror" in 2001, Bush's approval rating soared from 51% to 90%.
Where is Lao Chuan? Since the outbreak of the war, it has been only 38%. The median voter, who can most influence the outcome of the election, has only 25% support.
This result may be beyond Laochuan's expectation and is also the core factor in his inability to fight for a long time.
Of course, Lao Chuan won, after all, victory can be defined by oneself.
The right to call a stop is indeed in Lao Chuan's hands. If the United States doesn't fight, and other countries fight, does it still make sense?
Therefore, it is neither ethical nor realistic to expect long-term rises in oil prices to help China emerge from deflation. Domestic problems must be solved by the country itself.
Still worried about your children’s English reading? Every parent knows the exhaustion of sorting out wrong questions and looking for materials late at night while watching their children learn English while being busy with work. Qisu English Shiwen Reading APP uses AI intelligent companionship and scientific learning closed loop to completely free up parents' hands, allowing children to learn independently and efficiently. In 15 minutes a day, English reading can easily improve their scores.
Say goodbye to blind coaching, AI accurately adapts to every step
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For children with weak foundations, we will match short, simple articles with solid vocabulary foundation to gradually consolidate their foundation; for children with intermediate level, we will push adapted articles with intensive test points to quickly improve their problem-solving ability; for children who are academically advanced, we will push in-depth long articles and advanced question types to expand their thinking boundaries. What's more considerate is that the system will optimize the push in real time based on the child's question performance and learning progress, and dynamically adjust the difficulty, so that every reading is accurate and effective, and parents do not need to bother to filter the materials.
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According to Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" report on March 16, Fu Zhiwei, a representative of the National People's Congress and chairman of Xuzhou Bokang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., a domestic leader in photoresist, revealed during the two sessions that China's photoresist industry is moving from "single breakthrough" to "system development" and will enter a critical stage of accelerating breakthroughs and large-scale applications in the next few years. He said that the company plans to achieve mass production of multiple advanced process core photoresists within five years. At present, it has conquered the entire chain of mid-to-high-end photoresist technologies in KrF and ArF. The products have been verified by the head wafer factory and are gradually starting to increase in volume.
On February 24, 2026, the 2026 Guangdong High-Quality Development Conference was held in Guangzhou. The picture shows the chip products displayed at the conference. IC Photo by China News Service reporter Chen Jimin
Photoresist is an organic chemical material that is sensitive to light. It is coated on the surface of the wafer during the photolithography process and forms a patterned film through exposure and development. It is used as a mask for processes such as etching or ion implantation. It is the core basic material for chip manufacturing. The material is classified according to exposure wavelength, including G line, I line, KrF, ArF, EUV and electron beam, among which KrF, ArF and EUV belong to the most advanced technology categories.
The importance of photoresist is self-evident, but the high-end market has been monopolized by Japanese and American companies for a long time: 95% of the photoresist market for integrated circuits is occupied by Japanese and American companies. Major companies include Japan's JSR, Shin-Etsu Chemical, TOK, Sumitomo Chemical, and DuPont of the United States. Among them, JSR and TOK hold monopoly positions in the field of high-end EUV photoresist.
However, domestic companies have also accelerated their layout in recent years, striving for local substitution.
Fu Zhiwei said in an interview with the South China Morning Post during the National Two Sessions last week that the photoresist industry, as the core material of the photolithography process, will enter a critical stage of "accelerating breakthroughs and large-scale applications" in the next few years. The company's goal is to achieve mass production of multiple advanced process core photoresists within five years.
Fu Zhiwei said that with increased investment, the domestic photoresist industry is moving from "single breakthrough" to "system development."
He said that Xuzhou Bokang's core goal is to overcome key technologies in "stuck" fields such as KrF and ArF photoresist.
"We will mobilize our core resources to focus on the research and development of high-end photoresist for more advanced process nodes."
Fu Zhiwei revealed that the company has achieved independence in the entire industry chain from monomers, resins, photoacid to final photoresist products. Among them, KrF and ArF mid-to-high-end products have been verified by the head wafer factory and are gradually being mass-produced.
The report described that at a time when competition in advanced semiconductor technology between China and the United States is intensifying, the above statement highlights China's latest move to strengthen its chip independence strategy in accordance with the "15th Five-Year Plan".
In recent years, my country has continued to make efforts on the policy front to promote the localization of photoresist. The "15th Five-Year Plan" outline clearly states that the integrated circuit industry requires refined and mature processes, improves advanced process manufacturing capabilities, accelerates the development of key equipment, materials and components, and develops high-performance processors and high-density memories.
According to a research report released by Caitong Securities, many domestic companies in ArF/ArFi photoresist are in the development and verification stage.
For example, Dinglong Co., Ltd.’s Qianjiang Phase II high-end KrF/ArF wafer photoresist mass production line with an annual output of 300 tons has entered the trial operation stage as planned. The current overall rhythm is good. Its Qianjiang Phase I 30-ton KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresist production line has mass production and supply capabilities; Shanghai Xinyang has built I-line, KrF, A A complete R&D and production platform for various types of rF dry and ArF immersion photoresists, and has achieved mass sales; Tongcheng New Materials subsidiary Beijing Kehua's multiple KrF photoresist products have passed mainstream wafer factory and storage plant certification and entered the batch supply stage; Nanda Optoelectronics' three ArF photoresists in 2024 have achieved revenue of tens of millions of yuan.
She has long regarded Xi'an as her real home, but the family still tenaciously maintains the Persian traditions of incestuous marriage, chanting scriptures, and worshiping fire.
They spoke Chang'an dialect, and the men often wore robes to worship fire and recite scriptures. They were soldiers or businessmen by profession. They opened rows of shops in the East and West Markets of Chang'an. Ma Xishi's clothes and home furnishings must have been filled with carpets, spices, jewelry, and clothing materials from Persia.
The magnificence of the tolerant Tang Dynasty not only allowed a group of Persians to find a second home, but also allowed Chinese civilization to integrate into global civilization and gain a new life.
When the young girl passed away, her tomb seamlessly blended Tang Dynasty and Persian styles:
The walls are painted with images of flying apsaras, and Persian silver coins are placed in the corners. Craftsmen carved bilingual inscriptions with a Sasanian crown pattern cast on the surface; a Persian-style oil lamp with flame patterns engraved on the body to highlight their faith;
Speaking of the Persian Sassanid Dynasty that the Persians of the Tang Dynasty keep in mind, people are full of emotions.
This was the last pre-Islamic empire in Persian history and one of the pinnacles of ancient Persian civilization. From 224 to 651, it lasted more than 400 years.
The silverware of the Sassanid Dynasty is world-famous. Gilt silver plates and stained glass became daily necessities in the Tang Dynasty. Sasanian silver coins and silverware were scattered like pearls on the oases of the Silk Road.
The Sassanid Dynasty was one of the centers of world civilization at that time. It had an "Academy of Wisdom" that originated from a library as large as Alexandria in Egypt. It also had an academic center like the Academy of Athens in ancient Greece, integrating Greek, Indian, and Persian knowledge. It is an indispensable and important memory in the history of human civilization.
Human greed makes it difficult for a certain civilization to last forever.
On the Central Asia Road, northwest of Kabul, the Bamiyan Buddhas, which are more than a thousand years old, were blown up by artillery fire. The artillery fire that fell on Tehran in 2026 destroyed the Rose Palace, a world civilization heritage in Iran, and covered the floor with glass.
When people praise the magnificence of war, I prefer to praise ordinary happiness and the openness and comfort in the blending of cultures.
War is inevitable, but war is not worthy of praise.
During the Five Dynasties, Li Xun, a descendant of the Persian Sasanian royal family and a famous poet, wrote the famous line, "The west wind looks back with sadness, and the evening rain sprinkles the empty temple", which expresses the desolation of history.
The development of mankind is accompanied by countless wars. This time, what will happen on the land of Persia? What will happen in the future?
Quick victory is just a fantasy, we will see the real story in a month
On March 9, 2026, the US-Israeli military strike against Iran entered its 10th day.
Lao Chuan's war bet became inconsistent.
On March 7, Lao Chuan made a high-profile statement at the Western Hemisphere Leaders' Meeting in Miami that the US military operation was very successful. At the same time, he adjusted his remarks about the war.
From the initial attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime, to the subsequent efforts to destroy Iran's missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, and prevent it from possessing nuclear weapons, to US Defense Secretary Hegseth's clarification that it was not a regime change war.
Both sides are likely to get stuck in the quagmire.
On March 9, Phoenix News client chief writer Tang Pihu analyzed the battle losses on both sides. The reality is cruel: Iran's military counterattack capabilities are shrinking at a faster rate than the "Twelve-Day War" in 2025.
Iran's average daily launch volume of ballistic missiles dropped off a cliff: 350 on the first day, 175 on the second day, 120 on the third day, 50 on the fourth day, 40 on the fifth day, 32 on the sixth day, 28 on the seventh day, and only 15 on the eighth day.
The number of suicide drones launched by Iran dropped from the initial 540 to only 12.
Importantly, most of the missile transport and launch vehicles (TEL) were destroyed. The Israeli army announced that it had destroyed more than 300 vehicles. Before the war, there were only about 400 vehicles left in Iran. Iran has more than 800 medium-range missiles and more than 200 short-range missiles remaining in stock, and is unable to use them.
Moreover, because they are monitored in real time by drones and infrared satellites, Iran's missile forces are trapped in the dilemma of being "destroyed upon launch".
So, is it time for the United States and Israel to declare victory? The situation is not that simple.
The development of a region cannot be solved by a decapitation operation or a war. Afghanistan and Palestine are examples of this.
Although the U.S. weapons inventory is abundant, it is temporarily unable to meet the needs of extreme warfare.
Tang Pihu estimated that if the United States and Israel wanted to destroy Iran just as the Kosovo War destroyed Yugoslavia, based on the same military density of "dropping 2,300 bombs per 10,000 soldiers", 104,000 ammunition would be needed against Iran's 450,000 troops (equivalent to 4.5 Kosovo Wars).
Taking into account the fact that almost 100% of modern ammunition is precision-guided munitions (only 35% in Kosovo), 36,000 precision-guided munitions are needed.
According to the BBC report, the U.S. inventory of precision-guided missiles is extremely depleted. On March 6, Lao Chuan held an emergency meeting and asked military industrial companies to expand production to meet the requirement of "nearly unlimited supply."
In response, the U.S. military industry sector responded, but not strongly.
Back to square one, war is a confrontation between economic and technological power.
We-media IPP comments quoted an analysis article published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on March 5. In the first 100 hours, the total cost was estimated to be approximately US$3.7 billion, with an average daily cost of approximately US$891 million.
According to some people's estimates, if the war lasts for one month, the cost will be about 30 billion US dollars. If it enters a ground war, the cost will be even higher.
Of the $3.7 billion in costs, only $200 million has been included in the budget, and the remaining $3.5 billion is unbudgeted expenses that need to be filled by the Pentagon through supplementary appropriations bills or budget reconciliation bills.
It's not that easy to get taxpayers to foot the bill. Although the U.S. Department of Defense's defense budget for fiscal year 2026 is as high as US$1.01 trillion, the funding gap for the Iran war needs to go through legal procedures.
The war further tore American society apart.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on March 1 showed that only a quarter of Americans support the use of force against Iran. According to history, the longer the war lasts, the lower the support.
However, a poll conducted by NBC News on March 8 showed that 90% of MAGA supported Lao Chuan’s use of force against Iran. Supporters and opponents are incompatible.
If this was Lao Chuan's purpose, to disrupt the country so that he could go against common sense in the midterm elections, then he succeeded.
If the war situation is not clear by the end of March, the problem will be serious.
The market is calm, this is an illusion
On the surface, global markets are relatively calm.
At 7 pm Beijing time on March 9, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell from their morning highs of around US$116 per barrel.
On March 9, the Zero Hedge website published an article by Tony Pasquarillo, head of Goldman Sachs’ hedge fund business, pointing out that market calm is an illusion.
Since the outbreak of war in Iran on February 28, the S&P 500 has fallen only 2%, masking an undercurrent of chaos and panic.
The article is very long, so I found a graph that best illustrates the problem. Take a look at the oil price volatility below, which is the fear index for WTI crude oil.
Global oil prices are unstable and the economy cannot be stable.
Another piece of data also showed the illusion of market calm. Goldman Sachs pointed out in another analysis article that although the maximum retracement of the S&P 500 index was only -3.4%, the Goldman Sachs U.S. Volatility Fear Index closed at 9.72 on March 6.
The internal pressure is huge, the index is calm, and the gap is huge. In our first analysis article after the war, we pointed out that such illusions currently exist in both domestic and external markets.
Judging from the data, the market is extremely volatile, the leverage ratio is high, and only a handful of people are making big money. Many investors want to take advantage of the war to make a fortune.
Sure enough, wealth is often stained with blood.
In the face of a possible energy crisis, China has become a rare safe haven, with the smallest decline, which can be regarded as a win. In the past, we always compared A-shares to men's football. When the international market rises, it falls, and when it falls, it also falls. But this time we are tough. Why?
Because China's manufacturing is not what it used to be. The more turbulent it is, the more resilient it is.
According to statistics from Zhongtai Securities, the conflict that began in 2022 became an opportunity for manufacturing in China. Since then, the proportion of China's exports has continued to rise, and in 2025 it hit the highest record in history.
Will the conflict in 2026 be a repeat of the situation four years ago? At present, it is very possible.
Under the influence of the conflict, industries with high energy costs such as chemicals, metals, and ceramics are changing in a direction that is beneficial to Chinese manufacturing.
In the petrochemical field, the entire Middle East is falling into a wave of production shutdowns, and almost all upstream raw materials are experiencing sharp prices.
Europe suffered greatly from the round of changes in the petrochemical industry in 2022, and history is repeating itself this time.
Huntsman and other European petrochemical industry giants have already suffered losses due to rising raw material prices. The sudden outbreak in 2026 will make these giants even more uncomfortable. Simply raising prices is far from enough to make up for the losses caused by the lack of raw materials.
Chinese chemical companies, which have sufficient energy reserves and rely on coal as their core energy source, are gradually filling the market gaps created by their competitors.
Changes in oil prices often have an impact on agricultural products, partly due to changes in fertilizer prices.
The place where this round of conflict occurred is the core supply area of nitrogen, potash and phosphate fertilizers in the world. After the conflict, news of the suspension of production of related fertilizer production capacity continued to spread.
China is the world's largest producer of chemical fertilizers, with its production of nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers accounting for 26%, 30% and 14% of the global total respectively. Under the current circumstances, China Fertilizer will undoubtedly benefit greatly.
There are many categories similar to the petrochemical industry, such as electrolytic aluminum and ceramics.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused 90% of production capacity in India, the world's second largest ceramic producer, to be suspended.
The chairman of the Morbi Ceramics Manufacturing Association said that ceramics is a typical energy-intensive industry. India mainly relies on liquefied petroleum gas as raw materials. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the liquefied petroleum gas inventory of Indian ceramics can only last for 3 days.
As the world's largest ceramic supplier, Chinese companies are gearing up.
In 2022, Europe will be short of natural gas and other energy sources, leading to higher-than-expected energy storage demand.
Now it may happen again.
Before the conflict, Europe expected that energy storage capacity would increase by 55% in 2026. The sudden start of the war forced many dealers to stock up and place orders in advance.
According to Yangtze Securities, European energy storage demand is expected to improve across the board in the second quarter, and inverter shipments have begun to be revised upward. The production schedule of some companies in 26Q1 is close to the level of 2025.
On March 6, a domestic energy storage company signed a two-year 8.3GWh energy storage system supply agreement in Italy.
8.3GWh What is the concept? This is equivalent to the annual installed capacity of energy storage in a medium-sized European country.
No one knows when there will be a ceasefire and when the waterway will be unobstructed, but after experiencing so many turbulences, the strength of China's manufacturing industry can no longer be affected by turmoil.
I hope that today’s China will be as generous and open-minded as it was in the Tang Dynasty, providing shelter to the 26-year-old Persian girl and their tribe, and giving themselves a broader space for development.
No matter what the market says, one conclusion is certain, war causes suffering to civilians.
With the rapid development of information science, new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence have gradually become popular, and new concepts such as integrated media and Internet+ have taken root in the hearts of the people. All aspects of social life have undergone profound changes. Current literary and artistic creation and production have also shown many new trends and new characteristics. How to grasp the changing laws of culture and art in the Internet era, adjust the production methods of literary and artistic creation with the times, build a healthy and prosperous cultural ecology, and meet the people's growing and diverse cultural needs at multiple levels are important issues that the culture and art industry should strive to answer in the context of new media.
Technological progress unleashes the potential of literary and artistic production
New media is an ever-changing concept. The current new media mainly refers to network applications based on digital technology and Internet technology, such as Weibo, WeChat, short videos, webcasts, etc. New media are often products of compatibility and perfection of old media, such as the telegraph to letters, the radio to phonographs, and television to movies. When all or part of the functions of one medium are compatible with other media, the difference between the old and the new becomes apparent. Of course, old media may not necessarily disappear as a result. For example, features such as large movie screens, simulated sound fields, and collective viewing are beyond the reach of TV. Movies and TV still coexist today.
Historically, artistic innovation and technological progress have always gone hand in hand. The advent of papermaking, the invention of printing, the use of cameras, the rise of film and television, and every media innovation driven by new technologies have contributed to the liberation of literary and artistic productivity. At present, the new media of the Internet have not only given birth to many new literary and artistic forms, but also greatly improved the ability of literary and artistic innovation. While breaking through communication barriers and broadening creative horizons, new media also profoundly affects the theory and practice of literary and artistic production by promoting the in-depth integration of art and technology, and promoting the interactive gain of aesthetics and science.
First of all, the efficient and convenient characteristics of new media that transcend time and space have greatly lowered the threshold for literary and artistic creation and greatly liberated literary and artistic productivity. Internet writers, online singers, digital painters and other "internet-born artists" have emerged in large numbers. The number and rapid rise of new media literary and artistic communities is unprecedented. The full release of the potential of literary and artistic production by new media has changed the literary and artistic landscape of mankind.
Secondly, new media technology updates rapidly, which effectively promotes the reshaping of art and has a profound and lasting impact on the thinking patterns and aesthetic habits of literary and art producers and consumers. For example, artificial intelligence technology has shown its talents in the fields of literature, painting, sculpture, architecture, music, dance and other fields, bringing surprises to literary and artistic aesthetic innovation time and time again. The concept of "media is art" has gained more and more widespread recognition, and literary and artistic creation has become a cross-disciplinary comprehensive behavior that draws on the strengths of others with the help of new media.
Thirdly, new media has created a new platform for the production and consumption of literature and art, where humans and machines can work together, and has reaped huge rewards in terms of improving the quality of literary and art consumption, enriching categories, and improving the reception experience. Taking reading as an example, various reading software "conquer cities and territories", interesting digital publishing audio and video harmony, online reading human-computer interaction features and automatic retrieval functions give users the initiative and creativity to accept and use information. A series of text and audio-visual platforms make reading far-reaching and interesting.
New media not only changes the production methods of literary and artistic creation, but also changes the basis for the existence of literature and art. New media provide new creative tools and methods, new storage carriers and distribution channels for works. For audiences, new media has become an important channel for accepting literature and art. It can be said that new media is not only an important historical condition for the survival and development of literature and art, but also the main support for literature and art to realize social value.
Literary and artistic creation uses new media to upgrade and iterate
The all-round reshaping and influence of new media on creation and production have given the current literature and art many new characteristics and trends.
New types and forms of literary and artistic creation continue to emerge. For example, online literature is a new category of literature and art spawned by new media. Tens of thousands of online writers are updating 200 million words a day, creating an unprecedented scale of novel creation and a spectacle of literary communication. Some researchers pointed out that Chinese online literature is expected to become a global cultural phenomenon. In the field of video, new forms such as short videos, vertical screen dramas, and interactive dramas are emerging one after another, enriching people's literary and artistic lives.
Creators have a more accurate grasp of audience needs, and literary and artistic creations are more targeted. With the help of big data technology, accurately positioned information "narrowcasting" improves communication efficiency in all aspects; thanks to timely online interaction, creators can grasp the user's mentality and understand the needs of fans. Therefore, whether it is the precise content classification of video websites or the creative types of online literature, they can accurately match their audiences. Cross-media art consumption enhances in-depth experience. An excellent series of works can tailor and distribute content according to different media, effectively attracting the support of different audience groups.
Literary and artistic creation has become a comprehensive behavior spanning multiple art categories. Digital technology facilitates various art categories to learn from each other's strengths and learn from each other, leading to more comprehensive integration and innovation. The interdependence and mutual assistance between media make the cultural and artistic industry chain continuously extend and become more complete. For example, an excellent online novel can extend the value of the industry chain such as film and television adaptation, animation production, game development, and audio dissemination. After the publication of the novel "Du Lala's Promotion", various versions of derivatives have emerged one after another. Dramas, movies, and TV series have become popular, and there are countless related game adaptations and video remixes. In the context of new media, the development of the entire industry chain has become a conventional path for literary and artistic production. Each new text makes a unique and valuable contribution to the entire story.
Literary and artistic audiences widely participate in literary and artistic creative activities. Digital, multimedia, and interactive online art communication not only allows the audience to freely choose artistic works, but also express opinions at any time. Through online novel comments and video website barrages, audience autonomy and creativity are fully brought into play. More autonomous “user-generated content” means that everyone can publish content through a convenient digital platform. Internet authors, video bloggers, Internet celebrity anchors, these emerging industries are injecting endless vitality into literary and artistic creation. This gradual integration of the dual identities of "production and marketing" is also common in new technological art. The large-scale interactive drama "Dream Mirror" uses holographic projection, somatosensory interaction and other technologies to allow the audience to enter a dreamlike and mysterious theater through the induction wall. The "high interaction" experience between the actors and the audience is refreshing.
New media literary and artistic creation has broad prospects
Some believe that new media can simulate all existing media through digitalization. This power of "controlling everything with nothing" is opening up infinite space for artistic production, and beauty and art are constantly being integrated into reality with the help of new media.
It can be seen that media technology is still undergoing rapid upgrades and iterations, and new media technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality are expected to reshape art. The novel writing program "Computer Writer 2008" created "True Love" based on Tolstoy's 18 works, with a writing style that resembles Tolstoy's reincarnation; virtual reality works such as "Goodbye, Expression" apply computer graphics and other technologies and new media narrative methods to artistic production, producing shocking visual effects. New media is not only an innovative factor that affects art production, but also a technological force that constantly changes artistic concepts and aesthetic ideals. The era of man-machine coexistence is quietly coming.
New media breaks through the traditional production and communication model of literature and art, opening up broad prospects for sustainable development for the prosperity of contemporary literature and art. With the rapid expansion of the cultural and artistic industry chain, a new cultural and artistic ecology is about to emerge. Literary and artistic creation and production under new media conditions are also expected to be "innovative", "high-quality" and "new peaks". From the new trend to the emergence of masterpieces, new media literature and art still have a long way to go. At the same time, literary and artistic creation and production are facing new situations and challenges in terms of value guidance and aesthetic guidance. Giving full play to the advantages of new media and enabling literature and art to truly fulfill the task of "raising the spiritual flag, establishing spiritual pillars, and building a spiritual home" is the historical mission entrusted to us by the times.
(This article was published on page 20 of "People's Daily" on May 15, 2020. The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
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