As the smoke of the US-Iran conflict continues to fill the sky over the Middle East, the crisis in the two major energy channels has not yet been resolved, and another alarm that can shake up the global geopolitical structure has been sounded. Serbian President Vucic issued a serious warning publicly
BTC Price Prediction Technical Analysis: BTC Shows Short-Term Consolidation Signals
Bitcoin price is currently trading at 111,140 USDT, which is below the 20-day moving average of 116,583 USDT, indicating downward pressure in the short term. The MACD indicator shows negative momentum at -3,330.50, but the gap from the signal line is relatively small at -33.97. The Boolean Bands show that the price is moving towards the lower Boolean Bands, indicating potential support near 105,993 USDT. "Technical indicators point to a consolidation phase, with a clear break above the 20-day moving average needed to resume bullish momentum," said Olivia, an analyst at BTCC Financial.
Market Sentiment: Institutional interest remains supportive of BTC despite short-term volatility
The news cycle is sending mixed signals for Bitcoin. Some positive developments, such as Crédit Agricole’s plan to launch a Bitcoin ETN under the MiCA framework in 2026 and BlackRock’s continued capital injection into its IBIT fund, highlight the growing interest of institutional investors. Elon Musk's comments linking Bitcoin's value to energy scarcity and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's description of it as "digital gold" reinforce Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. However, expected remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as resistance at key price levels, are creating near-term uncertainty. Olivia, a financial analyst at BTCC, commented: “Adoption by institutional investors is advancing, but macroeconomic factors may cause short-term volatility.”
Factors Affecting BTC Price Tesla, Bitcoin, and Quantum Computing: Tech Giants Are Changing the Market
Bitcoin fell below $112,000, facing downward pressure, in stark contrast to Europe's breakthrough in quantum computing. IBM's Quantum System Two debuted in San Sebastian, equipped with a 156-qubit Heron processor, making the region a global quantum hub. The system's computing power transcends traditional infrastructure and marks a major change in technological capabilities.
Meanwhile, Tesla faces skepticism from analysts while Broadcom benefits from its partnership with OpenAI. The quantum race is intensifying as D-Wave joins the world's most powerful quantum alliance, the Italian Q-Alliance. Europe’s aggressive catch-up strategy is challenging the United States’ traditional dominance in this field.
Amundi plans to launch Bitcoin ETN under MiCA framework in 2026
Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, will launch Bitcoin exchange-traded notes (ETNs) in the first quarter of 2026 that are compliant with the EU Market for Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. The product will provide institutional and retail investors with regulated exposure to Bitcoin without the need for direct custody.
The ETN plans to launch in multiple European markets, with trading details such as trading venues and ticker symbols to be announced later this year. The unified MiCA transparency and investor protection standards mark a key step towards the legalization of crypto-assets in the traditional financial sector.
The move reflects growing demand for compliant Bitcoin products, similar to those offered by 21Shares and Bitwise. The addition of Amundi signals the deeper adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors as regulations become clearer.
Elon Musk ties Bitcoin's value to energy shortages due to rising demand for artificial intelligence
Elon Musk has reignited the debate over Bitcoin's fundamental value by portraying it as an energy-based asset that makes it immune to manipulation like fiat currencies. In response to concerns about the growing energy needs of artificial intelligence, Musk wrote on Twitter: "This is why Bitcoin is based on energy: you can issue fake fiat currency... but it is impossible to fake energy." This sentence emphasizes Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanism as a practical economic security.
Energy markets are facing unprecedented pressure as AI infrastructure projects could consume the equivalent of hundreds of nuclear power plants. Musk's comments positioned Bitcoin as a natural hedge against inflationary energy policies and drew an analogy between his Tesla energy plans and the cryptocurrency's physical underpinnings. Musk’s comments come as institutional investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a commodity-like alternative rather than just a speculative asset.
Bitcoin giant Strategy spends $27 million to acquire Bitcoin
Strategy, the world's largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, accumulated 220 Bitcoins at an average price of $123,561 per coin. The increase occurred between October 6 and 12, bringing the company’s total holdings to 640,250 Bitcoins, worth billions of dollars. The financing was achieved through the sale of $27.3 million worth of preferred stock, deliberately avoiding the issuance of common stock - which may indicate management concerns about valuation.
The company continues to maintain substantial cash reserves for future purchases, with $1.7 billion remaining under the STRF program and $20.37 billion remaining under the STRK program. This aggressive accumulation strategy highlights Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption, while also showcasing the sophisticated money management techniques increasingly common among public companies.
BlackRock’s IBIT continues to attract inflows into Bitcoin ETF despite market outflows
Despite outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to attract investor funds. On Monday, the sector experienced an outflow of US$326.4 million, marking the largest single-day correction since September; as the price of Bitcoin fell from US$122,000 to US$107,000, IBIT saw an inflow of US$134 million in two trading days.
The fund has now seen inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, although recent data shows the pace of inflows has slowed. In previous trading days, the fund's daily inflows once exceeded $200 million, but then fell to $74.2 million and $60.4 million respectively. This toughness is in stark contrast to similar products. During Bitcoin’s 20% correction from its all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, these products faced withdrawals or stagnant capital flows.
Historical data shows that IBIT's flows typically correlate with Bitcoin's price movements, but the fund has fallen out of this pattern during the recent downturn. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance during the U.S. trading session showed declining momentum, suggesting that institutional demand may be shifting towards specific investment vehicles such as IBIT rather than the broader market.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Where Will BTC Price Go Next?
Last week, Bitcoin fell to a three-month low of $102,500, leading to the liquidation of $20 billion worth of positions, before recovering slightly by 6%. As BTC fell 3% to $111,800, gains faded and whale short positions alerted traders.
Analyst Doctor Profit gave a staggered prediction: the short-term trend depends on the fluctuation of spot funds. The mid-term chart shows that gold prices will confirm a peak between US$115,000 and US$125,000, and long-term macroeconomic pressure is imminent. “The dead cat bounce will attract bulls,” he noted, “but the structural downside remains intact.”
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink changes stance on Bitcoin, calls it 'digital gold'
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has made a major shift in his stance on Bitcoin, now calling it “digital gold.” This marks a significant shift for the manager who once viewed cryptocurrencies as a purely speculative vehicle. BlackRock’s new bullish stance shows that institutional investors are increasingly accepting Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.
The asset management giant’s cryptocurrency arm appears to be making strategic moves in the digital asset space, although specific details of its new initiatives have not yet been disclosed. The move comes as Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its resilience and store-of-value capabilities amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency markets turn red ahead of Powell policy speech
Cryptocurrency markets suffered a broad sell-off on Tuesday as traders reduced risks ahead of an upcoming policy speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Bitcoin led the decline, with on-chain data showing large investors adding to short positions.
Market sentiment is cautious, with investors awaiting clarity on the direction of monetary policy. The pullback comes after the digital asset’s recent rally, with traders taking profits due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin recovery stalls at key resistance level
After Bitcoin’s sharp losses on Friday, its rebound momentum slowed down near the $116,000 resistance, with the price falling back to $112,000 after repeated resistance. Currently, the cryptocurrency’s rally hinges on key support levels, including the ascending trendline and support at $109,000.
Market technical analysts note that pullbacks follow a predictable pattern after a strong uptrend. The downward trend in the Stochastic RSI suggests the potential for further market consolidation, although bulls remain cautiously optimistic about holding key support areas.
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin’s recovery trend line is increasingly evident. With downside limited until a test of this key level, traders are eyeing confirmation of Bitcoin's ongoing recovery or signs of a fresh round of downward pressure.
BTC Price Prediction: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecast
Based on current technical indicators and market fundamentals, BTCC financial analyst Olivia makes the following predictions for Bitcoin’s price:
Annual Conservative Forecast (USDT) Medium Forecast (USDT) Optimistic Forecast (USDT)
2025
95,000-110,000
110,000-130,000
130,000-150,000
2030
200,000-300,000
300,000-500,000
500,000-750,000
2035
400,000-600,000
600,000-900,000
900,000-1.2 million
2040
750,000-1 million
1,000,000 - 1,500,000
1,500,000 - 2,000,000
Olivia emphasized: “These forecasts are based on continued institutional adoption, limited supply dynamics, and growing use as a store of value. However, short-term fluctuations cannot be ignored, especially given regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors.”
During the Spring Festival, riding on the historical craze caused by the historical drama "The Peaceful Year", the movie "The Bodyguard", which is set in the troubled times of the Western Regions in the late Sui Dynasty, also attracted a lot of attention. In the movie, the protagonists' action scenes with exciting moves and punches captured the attention of the audience, but what caught the author's attention was the powerful Sui Dynasty official Pei Shiju, who was hidden behind the scenes, playing tricks and only occasionally showing up in the middle of the plot. Thanks to actor Zhang Yi's penetrating portrayal, Pei Ju's image of a powerful official with a deep palace and sophisticated methods who manipulates various ethnic groups in the Western Regions is vividly displayed on the screen. He has become a rare and classic character in the entire film in addition to action stars, handsome men and beautiful women. As a historical figure who actually existed and played an important role in the late Sui Dynasty and early Tang Dynasty, Pei Ju, also known as Pei Shiju in the film, had considerable military and diplomatic talents, and to a large extent shaped the internal affairs and diplomatic pattern from the Sui Dynasty to the early Tang Dynasty.
Meritorious Service: A unified minister who has risen through the ranks
Pei Ju was born in the Pei family in Hedong, a well-known family in Hedong from the Northern Dynasties to the Sui and Tang Dynasties. His original name was Pei Shiju. In order to avoid the name taboo of Emperor Taizong Li Shimin of the Tang Dynasty, later generations deleted the word "Shi" and changed his name to Pei Ju. He was born at the end of the troubled times of the Southern and Northern Dynasties, and his fate was rough when he was young. His father Pei Nazhi was an official in the Northern Qi Dynasty. He was dismissed from the official position due to being implicated and died soon after. Pei Ju was raised by his uncle Pei Rangzhi. As an adult, Pei Ju was knowledgeable and scheming. The chaotic world affairs and ups and downs experiences jointly created his outstanding talents and understanding personality, which also laid a solid foundation for him to establish his achievements and become a great minister later.
After the Northern Zhou Dynasty was destroyed and the Northern Qi Dynasty unified the north, Pei Ju gained a relationship with Yang Jian, the upstart of the Northern Zhou Dynasty and the governor of Dingzhou, and became the secretary of the governor's office. He praised military aircraft and was deeply trusted. Yang Jian replaced Zhou Jian in the Sui Dynasty, and later sent Jin Wang Yang Guang to lead an army south to ping Chen. Pei Ju was appointed as the secretary of the Marshal's Mansion, and he rose to prominence and quickly became Yang Guang's confidant. After conquering the Chen Dynasty, Pei Ju and another important general Gao Jiong "collected the Chen books and returned them to the secret palace" ("Shui Shu Biography of Pei Ju"), making great contributions to the emerging Sui Dynasty. The next year, Pei Ju was ordered to patrol Lingnan. Before he even set out to Jiangnan, a rebellion launched by Gao Zhizhi and Wang Wenjin broke out. The rebellion was so powerful that "Wuyue Road was closed." At the same time, Wang Zhongxuan, the indigenous leader of Lingnan, supported his troops in rebellion and approached Guangzhou. His general Zhou Shiju besieged Donghengzhou, the gateway to Guangzhou. The situation was corrupt, and the entire southern region was in serious danger of losing what was gained. At this time, Pei Ju did not flinch, but insisted on moving quickly. After arriving in Nankang, Pei Ju defeated thousands of troops. Later, he joined forces with General Lu Yuan to defeat Dayu Ridge and Yuan Chang Ridge. They defeated Zhou Shiju, defeated Wang Zhongxuan, and recovered more than 20 states in Lingnan, achieving a complete victory. Yang Jian, Emperor Wen of the Sui Dynasty, lamented: "Wei Gu led 20,000 troops and could not even step into Lingnan, but Pei Ju went straight to the South China Sea with 3,000 weak soldiers. With such a minister, I have nothing to worry about!" Pei Ju was named the Duke of Wenxi County.
Pei Ju was not only good at civil and military affairs, but also quite diplomatic. At that time, the Turks were powerful, and Princess Dayi, the wife of Dulan Khan and the daughter of the clan of the Northern Zhou Dynasty, repeatedly encouraged the Turks to invade the border areas in order to avenge Yang Jian's usurpation of the Zhou Dynasty and the Sui Dynasty. In the thirteenth year of the founding of the Emperor, Pei Ju saw the information provided by Changsun Sheng that "Princess Dayi had an affair with her entourage", and immediately asked the Turks to send an envoy to report to Dulan Khan to alienate the Turks. As a result, Princess Dayi was killed. He also cooperated with the famous general Shi Wansui to successfully defeat the invading Turkic Datou Khan and stabilize northern Xinjiang.
As the Sui Dynasty unified the world and the Turkic forces were weakened, countries in the Western Regions gradually resumed trade with the Central Plains, and merchants gathered in Zhangye, an important town on the Silk Road. After Yang Jian's death, the newly succeeded Emperor Yang Guang of Sui Dynasty became ambitious and intended to expand the influence of the Sui Empire in the Western Regions. Pei Ju knew that Yang Guang and his father Yang Jian had a relatively simple life style and prudent foreign strategy. They liked extravagance and were "far-sighted and far-sighted", so he took advantage of the convenience of being in charge of trade with surrounding ethnic groups to induce the Hu people to talk about the mountains, rivers, customs and products of his hometown. Based on this, he compiled three volumes of the geographical monograph "Illustrated Records of the Western Regions", which introduced the forty-four countries in the Western Regions. Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty was overjoyed and summoned him every day for questioning. Pei Ju took the opportunity to introduce the treasures in the Western Regions, claiming that Tuyuhun was easy to annex, and advocated the use of foreign troops. Under Pei Ju's planning, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty visited the right side of the river. King Gaochang, Yiwushe and other 27 kings came to welcome him. He also defeated Tuyuhun and expanded the territory thousands of miles away. Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty visited Luoyang, the eastern capital. In order to show the strength of the "Celestial Kingdom" to the barbarians, Pei Ju suggested that 100,000 geishas from all over the world be searched and perform in Duanmen Street in gorgeous costumes for a month. He also asked the shops along the street to entertain the Tibetan people. Envoys and merchants from various countries all called China "the home of the Immortal Emperor" ("New Book of Tang Dynasty: Pei Ju's Biography"). Emperor Yang Guang of the Sui Dynasty greatly satisfied his vanity and praised Pei Ju, "If you don't serve the country wholeheartedly, how can it be evil?" The international reputation of the Sui Dynasty reached its peak, and Pei Ju's honor and favor also reached the extreme.
Ups and downs: unpredictable times and circumstances
In the seventh year of the Great Era, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty went on a tour to the north of the Great Wall. At the tent of the Turk Qimin Khan, he received a piece of news that shocked him extremely: Goguryeo, located on the northeastern border of the empire, actually communicated with the Turks without communicating with himself. This made him feel deeply damaged in his self-esteem. Pei Ju noticed the emperor's displeasure and immediately said: "Goguryeo was originally a Guzhu country, and it has been Chinese territory since ancient times, but now it does not surrender. How can your Majesty allow this inherent territory to remain the land of barbarians while your Majesty is in power?" He persuaded Emperor Yang to summon him to the court. If Goguryeo refused, "He should lead the Turks and kill them immediately." Pei Ju would not have thought that one of his suggestions would actually start the three-conquer Goguryeo war that led to the fall of the Sui Dynasty.
Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty failed to attack Goguryeo for a long time, but suffered heavy casualties and emptied the treasury, which aroused resentment among the people in the country. The hero Yang Xuangan rebelled. After finally pacifying it, Emperor Sui Yang was satisfied and visited Jiangdu. Pei Ju, as his favorite minister, could only follow him. It seemed that everything was still peaceful. However, at this time, the world was in constant turmoil and popular uprisings occurred. "The emperor's policy was weak and everyone was rebellious" ("Book of Sui: Biography of Pei Ju"). General Yu Wenshu of Zuo Yiwei, Minister of Internal Affairs Yu Shiji and other sycophants The entire court was courteous and courteous, and bribery was common. Pei Ju was worried that the Sui Dynasty, which was not yet stable, was in danger of overthrowing, so he could only take care of himself. "There is no sound of filth and filth, so it is known to the world."
In the thirteenth year of Emperor Yang's great career in the Sui Dynasty, Li Yuan, who stayed in Taiyuan, raised his troops and went south. In less than a year, he gathered hundreds of thousands of troops and captured Chang'an. He established the acting king Yang You as emperor, appointed himself prime minister, and actually took control of the situation in Guanzhong. Faced with the influx of urgent documents, Pei Ju felt that the crisis was imminent and asked Emperor Sui Yang to lead the Xiaoguo Army back to Guanzhong to have a showdown with Li Yuan. But at this time, Emperor Sui Yang had long lost the enthusiasm he had when he first succeeded to the throne, and remained indifferent. Seeing that the emperor was so depressed, the Xiaoguo army accompanying him was homesick, their hearts were in a state of confusion, and many of them fled. Emperor Sui Yang became anxious and asked Pei Ju what to do. Pei Ju took his savvy to the extreme and suggested marrying Jiangdu's widows and unmarried women to soldiers. Xiaoguojun was therefore grateful to Pei Ju. When Yu Wenhuaji used Xiaoguo's army to launch a palace uprising in Jiangdu and killed Emperor Yang of Sui Dynasty, Pei Ju was also captured. At the critical moment of life and death, Xiaoguojun was grateful for his kindness. Instead of killing him, he supported Pei Ju and became the right servant of Yu Wenhuaji. After Yu Wenhuaji was defeated by Dou Jiande, Pei Ju defected to Dou Jiande again, still served as a minister of the prime minister, and also helped Dou Jiande formulate the court etiquette. Then Li Shimin, Wang Shichong and Dou Jiande fought at Hulao Pass and "captured both kings in one battle", and Pei Ju surrendered to the Tang Dynasty. The following year, he became Prince Zuo's concubine and was soon promoted to Prince Zhan Shi and became the steward of Prince Li Jiancheng.
Pei Ju's wandering life journey did not end when he took refuge in Li Tang. The Xuanwu Gate Incident broke out, and King Li Shimin of Qin attacked and killed the brothers Li Jiancheng, the prince, and King Li Yuanji of Qi. However, the situation was not clear. Li Jiancheng's remnant party still occupied the palace city and wanted to fight the King of Qin decisively. Li Shimin sent Pei Ju to tell him that "the palace troops will be dispersed." Pei Ju, who was already eighty years old, brought this "Xuanwumen Revolution" to an end. Although he is old, Pei Ju is "refreshing" and is highly respected for his ability to learn stories. He has also become a high-ranking official like the Minister of the Ministry of Civil Affairs. When Taizong first came to the throne, he heard that some officials were bending the law for personal gain and seeking power to take bribes, so he started "fishing for law enforcement" and deliberately sent people to pay bribes. One of the ministers, Shi, accepted a piece of silk as a bribe. Emperor Taizong was furious and wanted to punish him with death. Pei Ju argued with reason: "This man should indeed be killed for accepting bribes, but this is the result of His Majesty's temptation to use property. If he is executed, it is the so-called setting someone up for a crime. If he follows the example, it may not be in line with the principle of guiding virtue and observing etiquette and law." Taizong listened to his opinion and called on all officials to follow Pei Ju as an example.
When Pei Ju died in the first year of Zhenguan, Emperor Taizong gave him the title of governor of Jiangzhou, with the posthumous title of Jing. Only then did Pei Ju complete his magnificent and magnificent life.
Long-cherished Wish: The Deep Plot of Dynasty Revival
Throughout his life, Pei Ju served six monarchs and heroes including Emperor Wen of the Sui Dynasty, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty, Yu Wenhuaji, Dou Jiande, Emperor Gaozu of the Tang Dynasty, and Emperor Taizong of the Tang Dynasty. He always held high positions and survived the complex political environment. Historians of the past dynasties believe that he relied on his extraordinary political sense and domestic and diplomatic skills to flexibly adjust his way of life according to the political environment and monarch preferences of different eras, so he could always remain invincible. A typical example is Sima Guang's comment that he was "sycophantic in the Sui Dynasty but loyal to the Tang Dynasty" ("Zi Zhi Tong Jian, Volume 129"), believing that this was not a change in nature, but that "if the king is evil and hears his faults, his loyalty will turn into a sycophancy; if the king is happy to hear his outspoken words, sycophancy will turn into a loyal one". The monarch is like a "table" (benchmark), and his ministers are like "shadows". If the watch moves, the shadow will follow. And Pei Ju perfectly interpreted the survival philosophy of "The Analects of Confucius" "If a state has the right, threatening words will endanger the deeds; if a state does not have the right, deeds will endanger the descendants" - only by being upright and courageous in admonishing when the political situation is clear, and being upright and prudent in speaking when the country is dark, can we maintain the foundation of a gentleman in troubled times.
This is certainly good, but I think it still misses the point.
Pei Ju's life was full of ups and downs, going through the Northern Qi, Northern Zhou, Sui, and Tang dynasties. He witnessed the changes from the end of the division of the Southern and Northern Dynasties to the unification of the world, and the Sui and Tang dynasties. He became an important participant and promoter during the period. He can be called a "living fossil" of Chinese history from great division and turmoil to great unification and great integration. Behind his life experiences and major choices are the historical thinking and collective demands of the political and cultural elites of that important era.
Different from the way that various regimes managed the Western Regions during the Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern Dynasties, Pei Ju not only divided, disintegrated, penetrated and integrated the various ethnic regimes in the Western Regions at the practical political and diplomatic levels, and strengthened economic and trade ties, he also focused on the theoretical level to systematically sort out and explain the Sino-foreign commercial exchanges since the Western Han Dynasty carved out the Western Regions, especially the central dynasty's governance of the Western Regions. He inspected historical materials, conducted interviews and research, and wrote the three-volume "Illustrated Records of the Western Regions", which records in detail the organizational history, geography and customs, religious culture, uniforms and products of various countries in the Western Regions, as well as the successes and failures of the central governments' management and control strategies in the Western Regions since the Western Han Dynasty, providing reference for the Sui Dynasty to strengthen its rule. He also described in the book "the appearance of kings and common people according to their country's costumes and manners, that is, the appearance of the king and the common people, that is, the painterly imitation". He also had in-depth understanding and on-the-spot investigation, and recorded in detail the three trade routes from Dunhuang in the east to the Mediterranean in the west. While allowing the monarchs and ministers of the Central Plains to gain a perceptual understanding of the far-off Western Regions, they also gained a panoramic understanding of the ancient Silk Road that lasted for more than 700 years, laying an important foundation for the smooth flow of goods during the Sui and Tang dynasties and the grand scene of the Celestial Dynasty where all nations came to congratulate them.
What's even more commendable is that according to the "Jingji Zhi" of "Old Tang Book", Pei Ju not only wrote "Illustrated Records of the Western Regions", he also wrote a volume of "Goryeo Customs"; and used the experience of quelling the Chen Dynasty as his The contents include twelve volumes of "The Record of Kaiping Pingchen"; ten volumes of "Stories of Yedu" based on his family's past as an official in the Northern Qi Dynasty; and co-authored with Yu Shinan of ten volumes of "Books of the Tang Dynasty", but unfortunately all of them have been lost. Pei Ju became a rare and famous official in the Sui and Tang dynasties who was both accomplished and well-known. It is conceivable that after three hundred years of great division and turmoil since the Wei and Jin Dynasties, Pei Ju was heartbroken by the history of the Five Husties that disrupted China and the decline of the dynasty. He deeply felt that unification and stability were hard-won, and was full of desire to rebuild the powerful dynasty that expanded thousands of miles and had ambitions in the Qin and Han Dynasties. Therefore, in a series of works, he showed a high degree of historical consciousness of learning from the past and the present, and carrying on the past and forging ahead into the future. As he made clear in the preface of "Illustrated Records of the Western Regions", the purpose of writing this book was to help the Sui Dynasty government to "raise banners over the Mongolian waters, and leap horses across Kunlun. It is as easy as flipping the palm of your hand, but there is nowhere to go." The unified and powerful Sui Dynasty also provided a solid foundation for the realization of this ideal.
Because of this grand long-cherished wish to revive the dynasty, when the Goguryeo envoys crossed the Sui Dynasty and sent envoys to the Turks, not only Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty, but also Pei Ju's self-esteem was greatly stimulated. Therefore, he advocated taking tough measures against Goguryeo, which directly led to Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty issuing an edict to conquer Goguryeo. It also inadvertently opened the prelude to the demise of the Sui Dynasty soon after unification.
Root cause: the collective choice of the elite of the era
In fact, if you examine this period of history, you will find that Pei Ju's actions and achievements are not an isolated case. It has become the collective consciousness of the political and cultural elites in this period to study the experiences and lessons of the rise and fall of past dynasties, to end hundreds of years of division and turmoil, and to rebuild a unified dynasty.
Not long after the establishment of the Sui Dynasty, unification had not yet been completed, and many wastes were waiting to be revitalized. Niu Hong, the regular servant of Sanqi and the secretary supervisor, presented the famous "List of Routes for Requesting the Presentation of Books", which listed the five major events in the history of Chinese classics, pictures and literature since the establishment of the Qin Dynasty. Catastrophes (i.e., the "Five Disasters"): the burning of books and entrapment of Confucian scholars, Wang Mang's Rebellion, Dong Zhuo's Rebellion, Yongjia Rebellion, and the Burning of Books in Jiangling. The continuous wars and continuous wars resulted in "all the tombs of the former kings were swept away" ("Book of Sui·Niu Hongzhuan"). After thousands of years, I still deeply feel the author's heartache and heartache. In the table, Niu Hong clearly pointed out that "the foundation of a country depends on Dian Mo. Nothing is more important than this before it is the foundation of the country." He earnestly hopes that the new dynasty can collect and organize the cultural classics scattered among the people, laying a cultural foundation for eliminating the gap between the north and the south, ending the division and turmoil, and welcoming the coming era of great unification. As soon as this is shown, Emperor Wen of the Sui Dynasty issued an order to all the people to "dedicate a volume of books and a piece of steel", so "in one or two years, the books were slightly prepared", which also became a major symbol of the cultural unification before the geographical unification of the north and the south.
Later, he moved to the Ministry of Rites, and Niu Hong integrated the northern and southern rituals and compiled one hundred volumes of "Five Rites" covering auspiciousness, misfortune, military, guest, and honor, which stipulated the basic rules of political and social life in the Sui Dynasty. Niu Hong also became a key figure in the "Profit and Loss of EMI" and the Lecheng Ceremony in the Sui Dynasty. In addition to etiquette, under the strong support of Yang Jian, Niu Hong, together with Su Wei, Pei Zheng and others, combined the essence of the criminal laws of the Cao Wei, Western Jin, Northern Qi, and Southern Liang dynasties, comprehensively considered light punishments and severe punishments, and adopted the principle of eclecticism to formulate new laws. It was later revised and made into the final text of "Kaihuang Code". Although the Sui Dynasty collapsed after two generations, the "Kaihuang Code" was respected by later historians as good law and good governance. Various basic systems were directly inherited by the "Yonghui Code" of the Tang Dynasty, becoming the direct cornerstone of the Tang Code. Later, it was used by the Song, Yuan, Ming and Qing dynasties. It played an important role in the history of Chinese legal system and had a profound impact on the legal system construction of ancient East and Southeast Asian countries.
A similar thing happened to the famous minister Yu Wenkai. As a master of urban planning and architectural design deeply trusted by Emperor Wen of the Sui Dynasty and Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty and his son, Yu Wenkai presided over the construction of the Daxing capital of Chang'an and the eastern capital of Luoyang. The two capitals were "extremely magnificent" and unprecedented in scale. When Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty visited the north, he built a large tent that could accommodate thousands of people. He even used ingenuity to build a movable "Guanfengxing Hall" that could accommodate hundreds of people. "The wheel and axle were placed... It was like a magical skill. When Rong Di saw it, everyone was horrified" ("Shui Shu·Yu Wenkai Biography"). Later generations often use this to prove that Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty was extremely extravagant and greedy for great achievements, and regarded Yu Wenkai as an accomplice and sycophantic ministers to criticize and criticize him. However, what is less known is that in order to establish the legitimacy of the rule of the Sui Dynasty, Yu Wenkai carried out an overall design for the Mingtang, a symbol of the etiquette of the dynasty's rule. Its main ideas are also reflected in Yu Wenkai's "Mingtang Meeting".
Since the beginning of Shennong and through the Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties, the Mingtang has been the core of the ritual system where "the king must reside" as a place for offering sacrifices, praying for crops, and administering government and bringing peace to the people. After the Yongjia Rebellion in the Western Jin Dynasty, Mingtang was abolished for nearly three hundred years. The Sui Dynasty unified the world and returned to unification. The reconstruction of Mingtang became a key measure to demonstrate its inheritance of Zhou and Han orthodoxy, complete the revival of rituals and music, and consolidate the legitimacy of its rule. Therefore, Yu Wenkai "examined the public records extensively" and gathered public opinions to systematically sort out the structure of the Mingtang from the Three Dynasties to the Wei and Jin Dynasties, refuted the assumptions of various Confucian scholars, established the Five Chambers Theory (Zheng Xuan Ancient Literature School), and opposed the Nine Chambers Theory (Jinwen Jingxue). Although the Mingtang Hall was not built in the Sui Dynasty, Yu Wenkai's research insights became the core of the politics and ritual system of the Sui Dynasty, demonstrating the Sui Dynasty's ambition to unify the world and revive rituals and music, and also provided a direct legacy for the construction of the ritual system of the Tang Dynasty. Yu Wenkai also preserved a large number of Mingtang documents from the third generation to the Wei and Jin Dynasties in the meeting table, providing precious historical materials for future generations to study the history of ancient Chinese rituals, architecture, and thought.
Tian Dong
The U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 18th and announced that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that from September to December last year, the Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, bringing it back to a reasonable range of the neutral interest rate forecast range. However, there is still uncertainty about the impact of the evolving situation in the Middle East on the U.S. economy. In the short term, rising energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is still too early to judge the breadth and duration of its potential impact on the economy.
Powell also said that the median participant predicted that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.4% by the end of this year and 3.1% by the end of next year. This forecast value remains consistent with the forecast in December last year. But Powell said, as always, these personal forecasts are uncertain and do not represent the committee's plans or decisions. There is no fixed path for monetary policy and the Fed will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Powell will end his term as Fed chairman in May this year. Powell said that if a successor has not been confirmed by the end of his term as Fed chairman, he will remain as "interim chairman" until a successor is formally confirmed.
Since taking office in January 2025, U.S. President Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's actions as always being "late and wrong." Powell has repeatedly stated that he is firmly committed to maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence. (CCTV reporter Xu Tao)
Deadly meningitis outbreak in UK nightclub
2 people died and 11 people are in critical condition
Most of the infected are students
A meningitis outbreak broke out in a nightclub in Kent, England. At least 13 people have been infected, 2 of whom have died and 11 are in critical condition. The infected people are mainly students at the University of Kent and nearby middle schools. The British health department is contacting more than 30,000 students and faculty members around the nightclub to conduct investigations.
According to friends of the two patients, the patient went to a nightclub in Canterbury called the "Chemical Club" for a party on March 6, and then began to develop related symptoms.
"Chemistry Club" opened in 1987, and its name means "social interaction sparks like a chemical reaction." The nightclub is a three-story building with a capacity of 1,600 people. It is one of the nightclubs most frequently visited by students from the University of Kent and surrounding universities.
The British Health and Safety Authority has confirmed that all 13 infected people were diagnosed with invasive meningococcal disease, and the cases were all reported between March 13 and 15. The two deceased were students from the University of Kent and a Grade 13 student at Elizabeth Grammar School; the remaining 11 patients were in critical condition, mostly young people aged 18-21, including many University of Kent students.
The British Health and Safety Authority is contacting more than 30,000 students, staff and family members around the nightclub to urgently provide preventive antibiotics to some close contacts. Currently, the University of Kent has suspended some offline activities and the campus is still open as normal. However, the school strongly urges students to follow the guidance of the British Health and Safety Administration and seek medical treatment immediately if they develop relevant symptoms.
Invasive meningococcal disease is caused by meningococci and is transmitted through close contact and respiratory droplets. It can cause both meningitis and sepsis. Symptoms of the disease can easily be confused with those of a cold, flu or alcohol-induced illness, and the disease progresses very quickly and can be fatal within hours.
The disease is prone to outbreaks in universities and other places where young people live, study and socialize intensively. In 1997, there was an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease in 6 cases of invasive meningococcal disease among first-year students at the University of Southampton in the UK, and 3 of them died. Investigations revealed that multiple patients had visited the same nightclub and the bacteria were spread through close contact. From 2021 to 2022, cases related to many universities in the UK increased significantly, and most of the infected were college students.
From 2013 to 2018, 10 meningococcal outbreaks occurred in many universities in the United States, with a total of 39 people infected and 2 dead.
Previously, two junior high school students in my country died of meningitis.
There have also been cases of death due to meningitis infection in our country. In 2024, the teachers and students of the No. 1 Middle School in Huangzhong District, Xining City, Qinghai Province were shrouded in sadness by a sudden disease. The news that two students of the school died of meningitis attracted the attention of the majority of netizens.
On July 3, 2024, the Huangzhong District Education Bureau and Huangzhong District Health Bureau of Xining City issued the "Notice on the Death of Two Students from Huangzhong District No. 1 Middle School due to illness." The notice stated that on June 5, Ma Moumou, a student in Class 5 (5) of the eighth grade of the No. 1 Middle School in Huangzhong District, died due to Neisseria meningitidis infection at the Qinghai Women and Children's Hospital. On June 26, Yan Moumou, a student in Class 5 (5) of the 8th grade of the No. 1 Middle School in Huangzhong District, also died of Neisseria meningitidis infection at the Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital.
Meningococcal infection:
A bacteria that can kill within 24 hours
Meningococcal infection is one of the most alarming acute infections in infectious diseases. The core risk lies in the rapid progression of the disease. In this regard, Professor Wang Xinyu, deputy director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, attending physician at the Travel Clinic of Huashan Hospital, and a member and certified physician of the International Society of Travel Medicine, pointed out: "The initial symptoms of meningococcal infection are almost the same as those of ordinary influenza, and it is easy to be dismissed as a common cold. However, it progresses very quickly, and can develop from a mild fever to severe illness within a few hours, and even life-threatening."
The patient initially only has a common fever, accompanied by flu-like symptoms such as headache and fatigue, but it will rapidly worsen in a short period of time, with typical symptoms such as high fever, severe headache, stiff neck, and confusion. Purple bleeding spots, also known as petechiae or purpura, will appear on the skin.
Once the bacteria invade the blood, it will cause meningococcal sepsis, and the patient will quickly go into shock and multiple organ failure. Even in countries with developed medical conditions such as the UK, the mortality rate of this disease can still reach 10%-15%. Some survivors will also have serious sequelae such as hearing damage, nerve damage, and even amputation. For this reason, meningococcal infection is classified as an acute bacterial infectious disease that requires high vigilance in the public health systems of various countries.
An even more surprising fact:
Many healthy people are carrying it
In fact, this kind of bacteria is not a rare pathogenic bacteria. Instead, it is widely lurking in the bodies of healthy people. Data shows that about 10% to 20% of people carry this kind of bacteria in the nasopharynx but have no symptoms at all. This kind of people are asymptomatic carriers and are also the main source of bacterial transmission.
Meningococci are mainly spread through oral secretions. Droplet spread, kissing, sharing water glasses or tableware, and close social contact may all lead to the spread of the bacteria. In most cases, the bacteria will only stay in the nasopharynx and will not cause disease. However, in rare cases, the bacteria will break through the mucosa and enter the bloodstream, causing invasive infection. This is also the core reason why meningococcal disease often develops suddenly and progresses rapidly.
Why are college students most susceptible to the epidemic?
Looking at the global meningococcal epidemic, we can find a very obvious pattern. Most of the clustered cases occur on university campuses. This Canterbury epidemic also accurately hit the student population. This is no accident.
Wang Xinyu analyzed that teenagers and young adults themselves are the population with the highest meningococcal infection rate. In a university environment, this proportion can even reach 20%-30%, which is the basic factor that makes campus susceptible to outbreaks.
Secondly, college students frequently socialize in daily activities, such as parties, nightclubs, and sharing drinks, which greatly increases the probability of the spread of droplets and oral secretions. In addition, most student dormitories are closed and crowded, and people are in close contact for a long time, which further creates favorable conditions for the spread of bacteria.
As the investigation of the epidemic deepened, many key details were gradually exposed, which also explained the core reason for the rapid spread of the epidemic. Laboratory test results show that the epidemic is mainly caused by meningococci group B (MenB). The MenACWY vaccine routinely vaccinated by British teenagers does not cover group B strains; and the group B vaccine is only included in the immunization plan for babies born after 2015, which means that the vast majority of college students currently do not have corresponding immune protection and have become a susceptible group to the epidemic.
In addition, the nightclub involved received more than 2,000 customers in three days from March 5 to 7, most of whom were students. During the investigation, it was also discovered that some students shared e-cigarettes that night. Anything put in the mouth and shared, such as water bottles, tableware, e-cigarettes, etc., may become a vector for the spread of meningococci.
Chinese students in the UK
How should we respond?
Judging from the spread of the epidemic, meningococcal cluster epidemics are usually limited to specific social networks or school environments. The risk of infection to the general public is not high. However, Chinese students studying in the UK still need to maintain basic vigilance and take daily protection.
Wang Xinyu reminded that we should try to avoid sharing various imported items in daily life, including water bottles, drink cups, straws, cigarettes, e-cigarettes and tableware. Many past university epidemic surveys have shown that sharing drinks is a common link of transmission.
Secondly, you must pay close attention to your own physical symptoms. Although the early symptoms are similar to those of the flu, once symptoms such as stiff neck, photophobia, confusion, and purple bleeding spots on the skin occur, you must seek medical treatment immediately. The core feature of this disease is that the earlier it is treated, the higher the survival rate.
In addition, many universities in the UK recommend that students receive the MenACWY vaccine. International students can make an appointment with their local family doctor for vaccination. If they receive relevant notices from the public health department indicating that they have visited the involved places or been exposed to cases, they must take preventive antibiotics. This is also an international standard measure to control meningococcal epidemics.
In recent years, the overall incidence of meningococcal disease in my country has dropped significantly, but occasional individual cases still cause social concern. As international travel increases, the number of overseas students expands, and urban population mobility increases, the bacterial transmission environment is also changing. The British epidemic has brought important enlightenment to my country's public health prevention and control.
Wang Xinyu said that schools are still potential high-risk places for such infectious diseases. In densely populated environments, asymptomatic carriers can easily cause rapid spread; secondly, domestic vaccination strategies need to continue to be optimized. Currently, my country mainly uses group A, group A+C, and ACYW multivalent vaccines, and the application of group B vaccine is limited. The mainstream pathogenic strains in Europe and the United States are group B, and subsequent adjustments need to be made in a timely manner based on the international epidemic situation; in addition, the public's disease recognition ability needs to be improved urgently. Meningococcal disease is one of the few acute bacterial infections that can be fatal within 24 hours. Early recognition of typical symptoms is the key to reducing mortality, severe illness, and sequelae.
"Of course, for the public, there is no need to panic or be careless. The truly effective way to respond is to understand the characteristics of the disease, recognize the risks, take precautions, and seek medical treatment promptly when symptoms occur. After all, in the process of fighting infectious diseases, scientific and accurate information is always the most powerful weapon." Wang Xinyu said.
Xinmin Evening News (reporter Zuo Yan), comprehensive Huashan Infection, Yangtze Evening News
As the smoke of the US-Iran conflict continues to fill the sky over the Middle East, the crisis in the two major energy channels has not yet been resolved, and another alarm that can shake up the global geopolitical structure has been sounded.
Serbian President Vucic publicly issued a heavy warning, pointing out that the authorities of Albania, Croatia and Kosovo are secretly colluding and coordinating actions, sharpening their knives and preparing for a joint attack on Serbia. The Balkan Peninsula, known as the "European powder keg", is once again standing on the precipice of war on the cusp of global turmoil.
The fuse in the powder keg has been lit: The Balkans are by no means an alarmist "crying wolf" story
Vucic's warning is by no means groundless, nor is it a political show by a politician, but an accurate prediction of the tense situation in the Balkans. A storm that can tear apart regional peace is quietly brewing. The Serbian president bluntly stated in a live broadcast on national radio and television: "They are forming an alliance to launch an attack on us. They are waiting for the opportunity for a major conflict to break out between the Europeans and Russia and a larger conflict in the Middle East. They want to wait for the right moment when the world falls into chaos to kill us." In a few words, Serbia's crisis situation was fully explained, and the sinister intentions of the three parties' joint containment were revealed.
The root cause of this crisis is the triple knot of historical grievances, ethnic conflicts and geopolitical competition, which have already laid hidden dangers that are difficult to resolve. The hatred between Serbia and Croatia, Albania and Kosovo has long been engraved in the national bone marrow: During World War II, the Independent State of Croatia supported by the Nazis carried out brutal ethnic cleansing against the Serbs, and tens of thousands of people were massacred. After the disintegration of Yugoslavia in 1991, the civil war between Serbia and Croatia lasted for four years. Tragedies such as the Siege of Dubrovnik and the Vukovar Massacre completely turned the two Slavic countries against each other. Now, as a member of NATO, Croatia maintains a high degree of vigilance and hostility towards Serbia. Kosovo is the "spiritual home" of Serbia. The Battle of Kosovo in the 14th century laid the foundation of Serbian civilization. However, due to the reversal of the population structure, more than 90% of the Albanians are obsessed with independence. Coupled with the support of Albania's "mother country", the concept of "Greater Albania" has made the two sides irreconcilable. NATO air strikes in 1999 and Kosovo's unilateral independence in 2008 have made the contradictions worse.
What is even more provocative is that in March 2025, the authorities of Albania, Croatia and Kosovo signed a defense cooperation declaration in Tirana, Albania, clearly proposing to "enhance defense capabilities, conduct joint exercises and training, and share intelligence information." This agreement was directly interpreted by the Serbian side as a military alliance against Serbia and a clear signal for the three parties to unite to contain.
Today, the Kosovo authorities continue to suppress the Serb people in the territory and promote the policy of "nationalizing" license plates and documents, constantly touching Serbia's bottom line; Croatia and Albania continue to strengthen their military support for Kosovo, and the military coordination among the three parties is becoming increasingly closer. At a time when the situation in the Middle East is out of control and global attention is distracted, this long-planned containment may break through the critical point at any time and completely detonate the "powder keg" of the Balkans. This is by no means alarmist.
Once the war breaks out: a geological disaster sweeping Europe and shaking the world
If the powder keg in the Balkans really explodes, the consequences will be far more disastrous than the conflict in the Middle East. It will not only plunge the region into bloody war, but also sweep the entire Europe, and even affect the global geopolitical structure, becoming another straw that crushes the global economic recovery. You know, the Balkan civil war in the 1990s caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of people displaced. But once the conflict breaks out today, the scale and destructive power will only be even greater.
For the Balkans, war will mean a repeat of humanitarian disaster. The conflicts between Serbia and the three parties are deep-rooted. Once a war breaks out, national hatred will be completely ignited. The tragedy of ethnic cleansing, civilian casualties, and destruction of homes will be staged again. The number of displaced people will increase exponentially, and people's livelihood in the already fragile region will completely collapse. What's even more deadly is that there are a large number of Serb enclaves in Kosovo. Once the conflict breaks out, these Serb people will be the first victims, and retaliatory attacks from both sides will fall into a vicious cycle that will be difficult to end.
For Europe, this conflict will be an unbearable "geoquake". As a member of NATO, Croatia's war with Serbia will directly involve NATO and force NATO to respond. However, differences within NATO on the Balkans issue have long existed. Countries such as Britain, France, and Germany are trapped in energy difficulties and economic recession, and are simply unable to deal with a large-scale regional war. This will further tear apart the NATO system and intensify divisions within Europe. At the same time, the Balkan Peninsula is located in the hinterland of Europe and is a transportation hub connecting Europe and Asia. Once the war spreads, it will interrupt Europe's energy and trade channels, push up the cost of energy and people's livelihood in Europe, and the European economy, which is already in the shadow of recession, will completely fall into the abyss, and social unrest will also intensify.
Globally, the war in the Balkans will make the already turbulent geopolitical situation even worse. The situation in the Middle East has not yet calmed down, and the crises in the two major energy channels are still ongoing. The outbreak of the Balkan conflict will form a dual turbulent pattern of "Middle East + Europe". The global energy market and financial market will be severely impacted. Oil and food prices will soar again, and the global inflation crisis will further intensify. What is even more alarming is that the intervention of external forces will escalate the conflict into a battlefield of great power competition. Russia maintains close relations with Serbia, while NATO is on the side of Croatia and Albania. The confrontation between the two sides will further escalate and may even trigger a larger-scale conflict, putting global peace under severe test.
China’s weapons and sword: more than enough deterrence, the key to stopping the war lies in its own resilience
Facing the dangerous situation of three-party containment, Serbia is not without the power to fight back. The recent purchase of a series of advanced weapons from China has become an important source of confidence for the Vucic government and an important bargaining chip to contain the crisis. Vucic recently publicly confirmed that Serbia has purchased the CM-400AKG supersonic air-to-ground ballistic missile from China, becoming the first user of this type of weapon in Europe. This missile has a maximum range of 400 kilometers and can carry a blasting or penetrating warhead. It is extremely powerful. Serbia has modified the Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jet so that it can mount the missile, forming a powerful air deterrent. In addition, Serbia has also purchased advanced equipment such as FK-3 air defense systems and CH-92A integrated surveillance and attack drones from China to build a complete air defense and ground strike system.
It is undeniable that the arrival of Chinese weapons has indeed injected a strong deterrent force into Serbia, making the authorities in Albania, Croatia and Kosovo dare not act rashly. The range of the CM-400AKG missile covers the core military facilities of the three parties. Once a war breaks out, Serbia can use this missile to carry out precise strikes against the three parties, causing them to pay a heavy price; the FK-3 air defense system can effectively resist aerial attacks by the three parties and protect Serbia's homeland security; the CH-92A integrated surveillance and strike drone can achieve all-weather monitoring, timely grasp the military trends of the three parties, and take the initiative on the battlefield. What's more worth mentioning is that this CM-400AKG missile was used in actual combat in the India-Pakistan conflict and successfully attacked the Indian S-400 air defense system. Its actual combat performance has long been verified. This "visible and tangible" deterrent is enough to make the three parties think twice before taking action.
But we must be soberly aware that Chinese weapons are only "deterrence weapons" rather than "miraculous weapons to stop war." The key to whether we can truly stop this crisis does not lie in the advanced level of weapons, but in Serbia's own strategic resilience and diplomatic wisdom. While strengthening military preparations and spending 2.6% of GDP on military expenditures, the Vucic government adheres to a policy of military neutrality and does not join any military alliance. At the same time, it actively engages in diplomatic mediation and summons the ambassadors of the three parties to ask for explanations. This "soft and hard" strategy is the key to containing the crisis.
More importantly, China's arms exports always adhere to the principles of peaceful use and maintenance of regional stability. The purpose is to help Serbia improve its self-defense capabilities and protect national sovereignty and territorial integrity, rather than intensify conflicts. Serbia possesses these advanced weapons not to actively provoke a war, but to have the confidence to "not be bullied" and gain more bargaining chips for peace negotiations. This is the core demand of the Vucic government and the key to resolving this crisis.
The war in the Middle East is still ongoing, the powder keg in the Balkans is on the verge of detonating, and the global geopolitical landscape is entering a period of unprecedented turmoil. The smoke of gunpowder in the Middle East has told us that there are no winners in wars, only endless pain. Once the Balkan "powder keg" detonates, no one will be able to survive alone. Only by completely abandoning hegemonic thinking, respecting the sovereignty and reasonable demands of all countries, and building an international order of equality, mutual benefit, fairness and justice, can we contain this coming disaster, protect peace and stability in Europe and even the world, completely extinguish the "powder keg", and save the people of the region from the suffering of war.
The Fed remains on hold as scheduled.
In the early morning of March 19, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with market expectations.
This is the Fed's second consecutive interest rate meeting to keep interest rates unchanged after January this year. This is also the second to last interest rate meeting before the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term in May. Another interest rate meeting will be held at the end of April. In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at three consecutive interest rate meetings in September, October, and December.
At this meeting, Fed Governor Milan voted against "as always" and he supported a 25 basis point interest rate cut at this meeting. The Federal Reserve has encountered dissenting votes in every interest rate meeting since the second half of 2025. Specifically, the dissenting votes for the interest rate resolutions in July, September, October, December, January and March of 2026 were 2 votes, 1 vote, 2 votes, 3 votes, 2 votes, and 1 vote respectively.
Fed Governor Waller, who like Milan voted against the rate cut at the January meeting, voted in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged.
Changes in the situation in the Middle East are the biggest new variable since the January meeting. The Federal Reserve stated in its interest rate statement that the impact of developments in the Middle East on the U.S. economy is uncertain.
Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the price of Brent crude oil has risen from more than 70 US dollars per barrel to more than 100 US dollars. Rising oil prices may push up inflation in the U.S. economy and undermine economic growth. The "oil crisis" in the 1970s caused the phenomenon of "stagflation" in developed economies such as the United States.
The latest dot plot disclosed by the Federal Reserve shows that Fed officials hinted that interest rates may be cut once in 2026 and 2027, consistent with the forecast in December last year. It is worth noting that the dot plot is the personal forecast of Fed officials and is not the Fed's established plan or resolution.
In the latest economic outlook, Federal Reserve officials raised their expectations for the U.S. inflation rate this year, predicting that personal consumption expenditure inflation will be 2.7% in 2026, compared with the 2.4% forecast in December last year. In terms of other major economic data, GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be 2.4%, compared with 2.3% predicted in December last year; the unemployment rate is 4.4%, compared with 4.4% predicted in December last year;
Attachment: Comparison between the March meeting statement and the January meeting statement (red is new)
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has changed little in recent months (January: the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing) and inflation remains high.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and 2 percent inflation goals over the long term. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the U.S. economy is uncertain. The Committee noted the risks on both sides of its dual mandate.
To support its objectives, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. In considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully evaluate future data, the changing outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee remains firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to its 2 percent objective.
The Committee will continue to monitor the impact of future economic data as it assesses the appropriate stance of monetary policy. The Committee will be prepared to adjust the appropriate stance of monetary policy if risks materialize that would impede achievement of the Committee's twin objectives. The Committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including labor market indicators, indicators of inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, and data on financial and international developments.
Those voting in favor include: FOMC Committee Chairman (Federal Reserve Chairman) Jerome H. Powell; Committee Vice Chairman (New York Fed President) John C. Williams; (Federal Reserve Governor) Michael S. Barr; (Federal Reserve Governor) Michelle W. Bowman; (Federal Reserve Governor) Lisa D. Cook; (Cleveland Fed President) Beth M. Hammack; (Federal Reserve Governor) Philip N. Jefferson; (Minneapolis Fed President) Neel Kashkari; (Dallas Fed President) Lorie K. Logan; (Philadelphia Fed President) Anna Paulson; (Fed Board Governor) Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was (Fed Governor) Stephen I. Miran
Removed and (Fed Governor) Christopher J. Waller
, he is inclined to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at this meeting.
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