In 2026, A-shares are generally considered to be still a bull market (slow bull/structural bull). The core is the resonance of the five major logics of policy + liquidity + profit + capital + industry. It has shifted from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" and has a more solid foundation. 1. Policy: strong support, stable expectations -
Author: Gao Fan is a distinguished researcher at the Shanghai Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Dean of the Institute of Marxism at Fudan University, and Professor at the School of Economics
The "Outline of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China" lists "adhering to the combination of effective markets and effective governments" as one of the major principles that must be firmly grasped for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, and proposes "the formation of an economic order that is both 'flexible' and 'well managed'." Forming an economic order that is both "flexible" and "well managed" is a practical issue proposed by our party regarding the relationship between the government and the market. It is an important achievement in understanding the regularity of economic development and an important guarantee for continuing to write a new chapter of the two miracles on the new journey. It is of great significance to deeply explore its background, connotation, characteristics and implementation path.
Deepening understanding of the relationship between government and market and its internal logic
Properly handling the relationship between the government and the market is the core issue of economic system reform. Since the reform and opening up, especially since the new era, the party has led the people to continuously deepen their understanding of the relationship between the government and the market through practical exploration and promote a better combination of effective markets and promising governments. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and better play the role of the government." The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized "making the market play a decisive role in resource allocation and better play the role of the government." The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to "give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and better play the role of the government.", 2024 The Central Economic Work Conference in 2016 proposed that "it is necessary to coordinate the relationship between the effective market and the effective government to form an economic order that is both 'flexible' and 'manageable'." The "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" adopted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed "the formation of an economic order that is both 'flexible' and 'well managed'." The expansion of the role of the market and the government to the role of the market, the government and the economic order marks the deepening of my country's characterization of the relationship between the government and the market from focusing on the economic operating mechanism to covering the operating mechanism, process and results at the same time; from "making the market play a decisive role in resource allocation" to "giving full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation", which means The policy focus has shifted from the stage of building and improving the market system to the stage of fully releasing the inherent functions and effectiveness of the market system; from being both "flexible" and "managed" to both "flexibly liberalized" and "managed well", it reflects that the government's management of economic operations has expanded from a dimension focused on risk prevention and order stability to a coordinated dimension of overall development and security.
From a theoretical logic perspective, the relationship between government and market has always been a core topic in economics research. Western theory often oscillates between "state intervention" and "laissez-faire." For example, mercantilism emphasizes state intervention, Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" emphasizes liberalism, the German Historical School emphasizes state intervention, Marshall's "Principles of Economics" emphasizes liberalism, Keynes's "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" emphasizes state regulation, and so on. This repeatedly swinging evolution process also shows that to understand the relationship between government and the market, we must go beyond the simple "dichotomy" framework and the "plate combination" paradigm, and focus on system integration and functional synergy.
From the perspective of historical logic, since the founding of New China, our country has created two miracles: rapid economic development and long-term social stability. The fundamental reason lies in adhering to the leadership of the party, giving full play to the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, and continuously promoting the adjustment of the relationship between the government and the market. Especially after the reform and opening up, the relationship between the government and the market has undergone profound changes: the economic options of micro-subjects have continued to expand, the role of market mechanisms has become increasingly prominent, and the government's strategic planning, macro-control, and industrial policy capabilities have also continued to improve, forming a positive interaction between the government and the market that empowers each other, and constitutes an important institutional advantage for the continued advancement of Chinese-style modernization.
From a practical logic point of view, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for basically realizing socialist modernization and connecting the past and the future. It has achieved remarkable results in benchmarking high-quality development and significantly improved the level of scientific and technological self-reliance. There are still some aspects that need to be improved in the current economic system, such as strengthening the construction of a unified national market and giving full play to the potential of domestic demand. In the new era and new journey, only by further handling the relationship between the government and the market can we form an economic order that is more consistent with strategic deployment and key tasks.
The connotative characteristics of an economic order that is both “flexible” and “well managed”
Adhering to the combination of effective markets and promising governments is expressed from the perspective of concepts and methods; forming an economic order that is both "flexible" and "well managed" is expressed from the perspective of performance and results. The goal of combining an effective market and a promising government is to form an economic order that is both "flexible" and "well managed". The ultimate goal is to promote high-quality economic development and promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. The connotation of forming an economic order that is both "flexible" and "well managed" can be understood from the following aspects:
"Let it go" emphasizes giving full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation. Its direction is to reduce the government's direct intervention in the market mechanism and strengthen the government's enabling role in market operation, thereby promoting a smoother flow of goods and factors, continuing to improve factor productivity and total factor productivity, stimulating the vitality of micro entities, and ultimately basing the underlying logic of economic growth on the continuous optimization of resource allocation efficiency. The development of my country's labor market provides a profound example of this. At this stage, my country's rural labor force mainly realizes large-scale non-agricultural transfer through migrant workers. This is essentially the market's response to the signal that "the labor productivity of the secondary and tertiary industries is significantly higher than that of the primary industry." However, there are still certain obstacles to the full flow of labor between urban and rural areas, regions, and industries, and the labor market has relatively obvious segmentation characteristics. In recent years, our country has continued to deepen reforms in related fields, eliminated institutional barriers to labor mobility, and empowered the market itself instead of directly allocating labor. This is the key practice of "liberalizing".
"Good governance" emphasizes giving better play to the government's role. The government's role is not only to make up for market failures and stabilize economic growth and social order, but also to provide strategic guidance and collaborative tools for economic operations based on overall and long-term goals. "Good management" not only means that the government can warn, prevent and respond to factors that may cause economic fluctuations, that is, "manage" possible risks in economic operation, but also means that the government can fully empower growth and leading factors, that is, "deduct" new growth points in economic operation. At this stage, my country's cultivation and expansion of new productive forces is closely related to its scientific and technological innovation capabilities. Scientific and technological innovation is a systematic project, which depends on the investment mechanism in the field of basic research and the transformation mechanism from basic research to applied research. Basic research is crucial to the self-reliance and self-reliance of science and technology, but it often has the characteristics of long cycle, large investment, high risk, and strong externality. It is necessary to give full play to the role of the government's "visible hand" and rely on the new national system to promote the development of basic research in an in-depth direction. At the same time, it relies on industrial policy, financial policy, and the integrated development of education, science and technology talents to improve the efficiency of basic research transformation. This has important practical value for my country to promote the construction of an innovative power and high-quality development.
Both "liberal release" and "good management" emphasize the dialectical unity and organic synergy of the roles of the government and the market. "Let loose" and "manage well" condition and empower each other. Only by "liberalizing" can we "manage well". Only when the market role is fully exerted and micro-entities are dynamic, can the government have stronger fiscal mobilization capabilities and a higher level of public product provision. Only by "managing it well" can it be "unregulated". Only by strengthening the public service function of the government can all kinds of micro entities form stable expectations for economic activities and create sufficient incentives for investment, innovation and consumption. As a country that implements a socialist system, has a very large economic volume and regional development differences, my country needs to simultaneously stimulate vitality and maintain order to achieve high-quality development. "Freedom" emphasizes that on the premise of strengthening top-level design, we should fully stimulate the initiative of local and market entities and promote economic development in accordance with local conditions. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization that brings prosperity to all people. "Good management" requires the government to better play its role and promote the economy to achieve a good combination of development, sharing and sustainability. The leadership of the Communist Party of China provides the fundamental guarantee for coordinating the relationship between the government and the market. Therefore, it is both realistically necessary and institutionally feasible for our country to form an economic order that is both “flexible” and “well managed.”
Practical requirements for forming an economic order that is both “flexible” and “well managed”
At the micro level, efforts should be made to deepen the market-oriented reform of factors. Deepen the reform of the household registration system, promote the citizenization of agricultural migrant workers, continue to improve the level of rural social security, and promote the spontaneous flow of urban and rural labor mainly based on price signals such as wages; deepen the reform of the rural land system, safeguard the land contract rights, homestead use rights, and collective income distribution rights of farmers who settle in cities in accordance with the law, explore ways to establish voluntary paid exit, and build a unified urban and rural construction land city market, improve the efficiency of land factor allocation; deepen the reform of the financial system, enrich the supply of financial products, strengthen the support of capital factors for various market entities, and reduce corporate financing costs; improve the data basic system, improve digital rights confirmation, pricing, transactions, governance and other institutional mechanisms, strengthen the enabling role of digital technology in resource allocation, and give full play to the positive role of digital technology in information docking and market expansion.
At the meso level, efforts are made to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. In order to achieve our economic and social development goals on the new journey, our country must promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. This not only requires governments at all levels to play a guarantee role in basic research investment and market order maintenance, but also requires various enterprises to carry out product innovation and technological innovation according to changes in market demand. In this process, the synergistic promotion effect of promising governments and effective markets must be maximized. Accelerate the improvement of government performance assessment and incentive mechanisms oriented towards high-quality development, place employment creation, innovation achievements, urban-rural integration, total factor productivity improvement and other factors in a more prominent position, and encourage local governments to not only focus on short-term growth, but also strive to cultivate regional long-term competitiveness and build a regional economic ecology that is both dynamic and well-regulated.
At the macro level, we should give full play to the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and uphold and improve the basic socialist economic system. Chinese-style modernization is socialist modernization led by the Communist Party of China. Our country’s promotion of economic development is essentially to serve the all-round development of people and the common prosperity of all people. To form an economic order that is both "flexible" and "well managed", we must always adhere to the leadership of the Communist Party of China, adhere to the socialist system, and give full play to the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics. In terms of strategic guidance and regional coordination, we rely on the organic combination of different types of planning to ensure the continuity and systematicness of development paths, and transform the top-level design of coordinated regional development into development practice through mechanisms such as industrial collaboration and counterpart support. At the same time, we must adhere to and improve the basic economic system based on development goals and changes in the times. In terms of ownership, we adhere to and implement the "two unshakable principles" to promote the complementary advantages and common development of various ownership economies; in terms of distribution systems, we insist on distribution according to work as the main body and the coexistence of multiple distribution methods, and build a coordinated and supporting institutional system for primary distribution, redistribution, and third distribution, and promote the formation of an olive-shaped distribution pattern; in terms of economic operation systems, we adhere to the socialist market economic system, improve the macro-control tool system, enhance macro-policy synergy, improve macroeconomic governance efficiency, and promote finance to better serve the real economy.
"Guangming Daily" (page 11, March 17, 2026)
Guangming Daily, Beijing, March 16 (Reporter Zhou Shixiang) The first batch of results of the "Classics Series" organized by the Ministry of Education, "Economics Excerpts from Marx and Engels Lenin's Important Essays on Philosophy, Social Sciences and Various Disciplines" and "Education Credits from Excerpts of Marx and Engels Lenin's Important Essays on Philosophy, Social Sciences and Various Disciplines" were recently published by Higher Education Press.
The "Classic Series" is a key teaching material construction project for China's original philosophy and social sciences, and is guided and supported by the Party History and Documentation Research Institute of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. The "Classics Series" consists of a general introduction and several sub-themes, focusing on the selection of representative documents and important expositions of Marx, Engels, and Lenin in various periods, striving to comprehensively, accurately, and systematically embody the main theories and important ideas of Marx, Engels, and Lenin on philosophy and social sciences and various disciplines. It provides classic documents for teachers in various disciplines of philosophy and social sciences to conduct teaching and research, and to train high-quality talents such as masters and doctors. It also provides basic guidelines for the compilation, review, and editing of textbooks.
"Economics" is edited by Professor Pang Jinju of Nankai University. It selects 27 representative documents in the field of economics from the works of Marx, Engels, and Lenin, and excerpts 570 important discussions, which reflects the basic stance, basic viewpoints and basic methods of Marxist political economics. "Educational Credit Theory" is edited by Professor Yang Xiaohui of Northeast Normal University. It selects and compiles 36 important works, articles, letters and speeches on education by Marx, Engels and Lenin in different periods. It also excerpts 109 important discussions, which reflects the scientific connotation, spiritual essence, historical status and value of the times of Marxist educational thought.
The compilation and publication of the "Classic Series" will help promote the construction of the discipline system, academic system, discourse system, independent knowledge system, and teaching material system of philosophy and social sciences with Chinese characteristics, and consolidate the guiding position of Marxism in the field of philosophy and social sciences.
"Guangming Daily" (Page 9, March 17, 2026)
On the evening of March 16, Suda Shares (001277) announced that the company received a notice from the family of the company’s actual controller and chairman Li Xiyuan. It received a “Notice of Filing” and a “Notice of Lien” about Li Xiyuan issued by the Bengshan District Supervisory Committee of Bengbu City on March 13, 2026. The company’s actual controller and chairman Li Xiyuan was detained.
Public information shows that Suda Co., Ltd. is a professional service company focusing on the full life cycle management of machinery and equipment, and is committed to providing high-quality comprehensive aftermarket services for machinery and equipment to industrial customers. The company's business currently focuses on hydraulic supports for fully mechanized coal mining equipment, providing comprehensive after-market services such as repair and remanufacturing, spare parts supply management, and second-hand equipment rental and sales for coal production companies, and providing fluid connector products for machinery and equipment manufacturers.
Suda Co., Ltd. has 6 large-scale maintenance and remanufacturing bases, and has added two new maintenance centers in Shuozhou and Changzhi, Shanxi, and its market coverage continues to expand. The company has established a three-level warehousing and logistics system with Zhengzhou as the central warehouse and radiating to many customer gathering areas. It has established 7 customer service centers and 10 service outlets, and its business scale is firmly in the leading position in the industry.
From 2022 to 2024, Suda Co., Ltd. has ranked first in the hydraulic support repair and remanufacturing market share for three consecutive years, and is also the largest domestic coal mine machinery fluid connection parts service provider. At present, the company has a professional R&D team of more than 60 people and a production technology team of more than 600 people. It is one of the few production service companies that has obtained the Beijing Academy of Coal Science and Technology's remanufactured support and pressure frame test qualification report. After repair and remanufacturing by Suda Co., Ltd., the performance of the used fully mechanized mining equipment is no less than that of new equipment.
Regarding the lien on the actual controller and chairman of the board, Suda shares stated that the company has a complete governance structure and internal control mechanism, and will operate in accordance with the "Company Law of the People's Republic of China", the "Shenzhen Stock Exchange Stock Listing Rules", the "Governance Code of Listed Companies" and the "Articles of Association" and other laws, regulations and related systems.
As of the disclosure date of this announcement, the company's other directors and senior managers have performed their duties normally, the company's control has not changed, the company's production and operations are in normal condition, and the above matters will not have a significant impact on the company's daily operating activities. At present, the company has not received any investigation or cooperation documents from the competent authorities on the company, and it is not yet aware of the progress and conclusion of the lien investigation. The company will continue to pay attention to the progress of the above matters and perform its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner in strict accordance with relevant regulations.
The company will continue to pay attention to the follow-up progress of the above-mentioned matters and perform its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner in strict accordance with the provisions and requirements of relevant laws and regulations.
Market consensus gradually formed, and corporate profits and incremental funds became the core twin engines.
The end of 2025 is about to come to an end. The Shanghai Composite Index has recently experienced six consecutive positive days, and market sentiment has picked up significantly. Investors have set their sights on 2026, and many institutions have recently released annual outlook reports intensively.
The mainstream view is that China's stock market is expected to continue its "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by improvements in corporate profits, breakthroughs in technological innovation and attractive valuations. Among them, whether the Shanghai Composite Index can exceed 5,000 points has become one of the focuses of the market.
Profit-driven "Slow Bull" pattern
As the first year of the “15th Five-Year Plan”, the market has given expectations for transformation and high-quality development in 2026. Zhang Jun, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, pointed out that with the advancement of the economic rebalancing process, the formation of a mild reflation pattern, and the phased improvement of the internal and external environment, investing in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is expected to achieve significant excess returns.
The market consensus is that the driving logic is shifting from valuation repair to fundamentals. Meng Lei, a Chinese equity strategist at UBS Securities, predicts that the profit growth rate of all A-shares in 2026 is expected to further increase from 6% in 2025 to 8%. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese corporate profits will grow by 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
Substantial improvement in corporate profits is considered the most critical factor supporting the market upwards. JP Morgan raised its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight". Liu Mingdi, head of equity strategy research for mainland and Hong Kong, said that under the base scenario, the target price forecast for the CSI 300 Index at the end of 2026 is 5,200 points.
Regarding the issue of Shanghai Composite Index points that investors are generally concerned about, institutions have different perspectives.
One view is that the market will fluctuate within a certain range and accumulate strength. Guests on China Business News' "Talk about Stocks and Money" program pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index will fluctuate widely between 4,000 points and 5,000 points in 2026. This means that 5,000 points will become an important upper edge of the range and a psychological threshold.
Another view is more optimistic, believing that driven by earnings growth and capital, the index has the potential for a systematic upward trend. HSBC Global Research predicted in September 2025 that by 2026, the target level of the Shanghai Composite Index would be 4,500 points. The target levels for the entire market or major indexes given by some brokerages in their annual strategies also imply expectations that the Shanghai Composite Index will challenge higher levels.
The "triple resonance" of profits, funds and policies
Looking forward to 2026, the positive factors supporting the stock market are forming a synergy. Zhang Jun summarized it as the resonance of three core supporting logics: improvement of economic fundamentals, coordinated policy efforts, and relaxation of the external environment.
Corporate profitability is the foundation. The growth in profits not only comes from revenue expansion, but also benefits from the recovery of profit margins driven by the advancement of "anti-involution" policies. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, specifically pointed out that China’s greatest potential for profit growth is concentrated in the technology industry.
Incremental funding is the fuel. In 2026, the A-share market is expected to usher in an “incremental fund wave” that resonates with domestic and foreign capital. Changjiang Securities estimates that the potential incremental capital space in the A-share market in 2026 will be approximately 6 trillion yuan to 9.6 trillion yuan. This includes insurance funds, ETFs, private placements and possible return of foreign capital.
The policy environment is a guarantee. Macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain continuity and stability to underpin the economy and market. The functional positioning of the capital market continues to be strengthened, playing a key role in supporting technological innovation and creating wealth effects.
In terms of specific investment main lines, technological growth is unanimously considered by institutions to be the strongest main line running through this round of market conditions. Hard technology tracks such as artificial intelligence, computing power, and high-end manufacturing are expected to continue to lead the market. At the same time, high-dividend dividend assets as "ballast stones" also have important bottom position value.
In addition to opportunities, risks cannot be ignored. Zhang Jun reminded that the risks that the market may face in 2026 include that the U.S. economic recovery is less than expected, which may affect global trade demand, thereby dragging down China's exports. In addition, the evolution of the global macro environment, the geopolitical situation and the specific results of domestic economic transformation may bring volatility to the market.
International funds are expressing their views through actions. As of December 20, 2025, global ETFs investing in Chinese assets had received a cumulative net inflow of US$83.1 billion that year, with the technology sector receiving the largest inflow of foreign capital. Wang Ying, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley China, believes that it is “only a matter of time” before active funds increase their allocation to Chinese assets.
The market will enter a stage that relies more on fundamentals in 2026. When the "face" of corporate profits becomes solid, valuation improvements will come naturally. In the broad stage of 4,000 to 5,000 points, companies with real growth potential will lead the market through shocks and draw a new value curve.
Media: Iran shocked the world with its killer weapon and America "turned from complacency to panic"
In one of the most tumultuous weeks in oil market history, Iran's trump card is a virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas are normally transported.
An Iranian propaganda video made in the style of Lego animation has gone viral online, showing how Tehran is declaring victory in its war against the United States this week on a major battlefield: the oil market.
Seven armed speedboats rushed to the oil tanker and blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; financial practitioners saw the skyrocketing oil prices and cried bitterly and were at a loss; Arab countries fell into despair due to the paralysis of crude oil exports.
The animated scene echoes real-life combat situations, highlighting how soaring oil prices have become one of Iran's most powerful weapons in the conflict.
Photo of US President Trump/Xinhua News Agency
"The energy market is the main battlefield in the next phase of the conflict," said Jeffrey Pyatt, a former White House energy adviser. "Iran is clearly using the market to make a fuss in the hope of putting pressure on the Trump administration."
For the "survival is victory" Iranian regime, pushing up oil prices is a key success indicator against Trump, who is obsessed with driving down oil prices. Oil prices will also affect the direction of the war. After crude oil prices approached a four-year high of US$120 per barrel, Trump declared that the US action "objective has been accomplished."
In one of the most tumultuous weeks in oil market history, Iran's trump card is a virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas are normally transported.
Tehran currently has almost complete control over the Gulf oil market, forcing neighboring countries such as Iraq to almost completely suspend production. About 300 million barrels of oil and natural gas cannot be shipped out of the region, and this number continues to rise at a rate of about 20 million barrels per day.
As of the 13th, despite Trump and his Western allies announcing the launch of the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, oil prices remained at about US$100 per barrel.
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei announced that he would block the strait indefinitely, which greatly surprised oil traders, who had always believed that US military power would ensure the smooth flow of the channel.
Although Iran has threatened many times before, it has never actually blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Its decision this month to blockade and launch attacks on energy facilities in neighboring countries shows that this conflict is a matter of life and death for the Iranian regime.
"The Strait of Hormuz has always been Iran's most valuable bargaining chip. Its use of this bargaining chip surprised many people, and even shocked Iran. If the conflict continues for a long time, global oil reserves will be exhausted." Hamid Hosseini of the Iranian Oil Exporters Alliance said. Tehran's own oil exports continued, he added.
In recent days, Tehran has at times appeared to be speaking directly to oil traders in Geneva and New York, threatening that oil prices could soar to $200 a barrel.
The United States "went from complacency to panic"
As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the Republican Party is already in trouble due to people's "cost of living pressure", and rising oil prices will definitely make the situation worse. The Trump administration is already feeling rising pressure.
The White House purged Iran's top leadership on the first day of the conflict and once remained optimistic about the war. However, its attitude quickly changed as oil prices surged when the market opened on the evening of the 8th.
There were constant reports over the weekend that some major oil-producing countries around the world were forced to cut production. The severity of the energy crisis was fully revealed, and oil prices experienced one of the largest increases in history.
Trump and Netanyahu
"At about 6:05 on the evening of the 8th, the government's attitude changed from complacency to panic," said a person familiar with the White House's response. "They seemed to have woken up from a dream and realized that the problem was far more serious than expected."
On the evening of the 8th, US officials supported the G7 finance ministers to convene a meeting the next day to discuss the emergency release of oil reserves, while the White House repeatedly insisted last week that it had no such plan.
The White House seems willing to use any means to bring down oil prices, but Pyatt, who was responsible for energy security in the Biden administration, said such measures would have limited effect.
Ernest Moniz, who served as energy secretary in the Obama administration, said that ultimately, the only way for the United States to drive down oil prices is to try to fill the market supply gap.
"If you can't fill the 10 million barrels per day market gap quickly, it's going to be difficult to calm the current wild swings in oil prices," he said.
Gulf states 'furious over this'
Gulf countries are also clearly aware that if they are unable to supply energy to the market for a long time, it will create political space for Russian energy to return to the global market.
According to multiple people familiar with the matter, before the war broke out, the Gulf countries tried to warn the United States that seeking regime change in Iran would lead to unpredictable chaos.
"I don't understand why the United States didn't expect it. They had been warned long ago but chose to ignore it, resulting in today's situation." Helima Croft, a former CIA official and capital market analyst, said. She added that the Gulf states were "furious about this, both at Iran and angry that someone had stoked a hornet's nest."
Although the United States has rehearsed the consequences of the conflict, officials are convinced that the operation against Iraq will be quick and may last only a week, and the rise in oil prices will only be a short-lived fluctuation.
The White House has consistently denied that it was caught off guard by the current situation. White House spokesman Tyler Rogers said: "The president and his entire energy team had plans to stabilize energy markets long before the operation began."
But traders were puzzled by the president's conflicting comments on how long the conflict would last and whether he wanted to keep oil prices lower.
"For me, stopping Iran is more important than stabilizing high oil prices." Trump posted on his "Real Social" website on the 12th, while claiming that the United States is the world's largest crude oil producer. "When oil prices go up, we can make a lot of money," he said.
The energy supply system is difficult to recover quickly
Markets are soberly aware that it may take months or even years for energy markets to return to normal. "All parties know that it is extremely difficult to restore oilfield production and repair equipment," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global. "The energy supply system cannot be turned on with a click, and any new production capacity will require time and investment."
The decision to end the conflict does not lie solely in the hands of the United States and Israel. Roxanne Farmanfarmayan of the Royal United Services Institute predicts that Iran will maintain the blockade of the Strait for a long time and continue to push up oil and gas prices.
"Iran wants to ensure that Israel and the United States will not come back within 8 to 10 months after the ceasefire. They do not want a third war to break out. Therefore, they will push the situation to a point where the United States cannot go to war against it again," she said.
There is still the possibility of further escalation of the conflict. Iran's proxy Houthis in Yemen have not yet intervened in the conflict, disrupted shipping in the Red Sea or attacked Saudi oil pipelines.
The Iranian regime knows very well that the release of emergency oil reserves will only delay the pain of the global economy for a few weeks at most, and may even mean that it may become stronger after the conflict.
"After the war, Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and may even collect tolls," Husseini said.
"No country will be able to challenge its control. Iran has found leverage that the United States cannot effectively counter."
This article was published on the Financial Times website on March 13. It was originally titled "The War on Oil Prices" and was written by Malcolm Moore.
A must-read for stock trading in 2026: Say goodbye to random buying and disorder, follow these four main lines and strive for steady victory!
Dear stock investors, 2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and our logic for stock trading must change.
It is difficult to reproduce the general rising market trend of the past, where chickens and dogs rise to the sky. The current market is called structural bull. What's the meaning? That is, the funds are very concentrated and only focus on a few directions. If you buy the right thing, you will get a ride; if you buy the wrong thing, it may be a long shock.
According to the consensus of institutions and the current flow of funds, this year’s main line is actually hidden in four real directions. I’m not going to fix my weakness today, let’s go straight to the practical stuff!
1. Hard-core technology: It’s no longer about telling stories, but about real performance
The concept of technology stocks this year is completely different from that of two years ago. Today's funds are very picky, and it only depends on who can realize it.
1. The second half of AI depends on its application: AI is not created solely by computing power. The real hot spots lie in device-side intelligence and implementation in specific scenarios. For example, in industrial software, intelligent driving, AI+ education, etc., only companies that can truly reduce costs and increase efficiency will have long-term value.
2. Semiconductors must make up for their shortcomings: domestic substitution is the only way for us. The focus now is no longer on front-end design, but on equipment and materials. In these stuck areas, the localization rate is still very low, and the future growth space is certain.
Summary: Although technology stocks are volatile, they are the core of this year's offensive. If you want to make big money, you must keep an eye on this line, but only be leaders with performance and orders.
2. Procyclical: “Value Return” of Low Valuation
Many people think that coal, nonferrous metals, and chemicals are "sunset industries." This is actually a huge misunderstanding.
Today's traditional industries, after so many years of supply-side reform, have completely cleared their production capacity.
1. Price increase logic: As the global economy picks up and domestic companies replenish their inventories, the prices of energy metals and some chemicals are trending upward. When asset prices rise, stock prices will naturally respond.
2. Anti-involution: In today’s traditional manufacturing industry, profit margins are bottoming out and rising. In addition, their dividends are very high, and valuation recovery will be a matter of time.
Summary: Procyclical sectors are suitable for playing slow and steady, and when technology stocks pull back, they are often the best safe haven.
3. Made in China going global: This is a national-level strategy
This line is a long-term opportunity throughout the year.
Our manufacturing in China has changed from “selling goods to others” to building factories abroad and exporting technical standards.
1. High-end equipment: Like power equipment and construction machinery, we have advantages in cost and technology. Now is the golden period to accelerate going global.
2. Strategic resources: The international situation is complex, and the strategic value of key resources and equipment, such as rare earths and military industry, has increased unprecedentedly.
Summary: China's manufacturing overseas is a long-term logic with strong certainty, suitable for long-term layout, and should not be impatient.
4. High-dividend assets: The best way to keep your money in hand is to keep it safe
In an environment of great uncertainty, cash flow is the lifeline.
Nowadays, many people are afraid to buy financial management products, so they will enter the market through funds and other channels to buy companies with high dividends and stable performance.
This type of asset is like a "deposit" in the stock market. Although it is not explosive, it is resistant to decline and can earn dividends. It is especially suitable for conservative investors or as a bottom position.
Summary: High dividends are the ballast stone that can save your account from losing a lot of money in strong winds and waves.
Operation suggestions
See clearly, don’t cast a wide net in 2026, but do subtraction:
- Radical type: Put money mainly in technological growth and procyclicality, and advance and retreat in a moderate manner.
- Steady type: Focus on high dividends and Chinese manufacturing overseas, and the winner will be those who can hold on to it.
2026 is a structural year, and choosing the right track is more important than working hard. If you understand these four main lines thoroughly, there is a high probability that the market will not be bad this year. I wish you all good luck with your account!
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