Time flies so fast, it has been 15 years since Steve Jobs left us.
In a world without Steve Jobs, the sun still rises, but it lacks some flavor of soul.
Every time I think about "The Lost Interview", people can't help but wonder, is Steve Jobs really gone?
In 1990, Jobs gave a 52-minute television interview. After the interview, the master tape was lost.
Surprisingly, shortly after Jobs passed away in 2011, interview director Paul Sen discovered the missing master tapes in his garage.
It lay there quietly, as if waiting for the day it would see the light of day again.
The following text comes from this "lost interview".
Where did Apple start?
A small blue box.
After Jobs met Wozniak, they accidentally discovered a huge BUG in the telephone network built by the telecommunications giant AT&T.
AT&T puts the computer signal in the same frequency band as the sound, which means that if someone can simulate the computer signal, it will be recognized by AT&T as belonging to its own phone network, so that you can make unlimited free calls.
Jobs and Wozniak turned this vulnerability into a product, which they called the "blue box."
Jobs said that without the Blue Box, there would be no Apple Computer.
Because for the first time, they realized that they could control behemoths, infrastructure worth billions of dollars, with the help of small things.
Of course, with the personalities of Jobs and Wozniak, it was impossible not to use the blue box to do some mischief. They called the Pope pretending to be US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. The joke is big enough.
With the experience of changing the world, the two quickly built the Apple I, thereby slowly building the entire Apple empire.
How did Apple succeed?
Steve Jobs's answer was very Steve Jobs. He said that he discovered an interesting phenomenon. Many people do not ask why they are doing something before doing it. If you ask them, the answer is often that everyone does it.
Jobs sighed, "Everyone does it" is like a legend. I don't know where the source is, but just follow it.
Steve Jobs believed that when everyone is repeating things without thinking, if you are willing to ask, think deeply, and work hard, you can quickly learn how to do business.
From the great to the simple, the great truth is always in the clear, but most people turn a blind eye.
Jobs's understanding of computers was that they were a "bicycle for thinking."
He explained that the idea for the "thinking bicycle" came from an article he read in Scientific American as a child.
This article uses energy consumption per kilometer as a standard to test the movement efficiency of species on the earth. It turns out that the most efficient animal is the vulture, with humans ranking very low.
That’s not the end of it, the author of this article also measured cyclists. What surprised Jobs was that once a person rides a bicycle, his efficiency becomes the highest, far better than that of a vulture.
This article influenced Jobs's life. He deeply realized that human beings are makers of tools, and tools can greatly amplify our innate abilities.
The essence of the personal computer is the bicycle of the human mind.
The real meaning of programming is not to write a program, but to mirror the thinking process and teach us how to think.
AI panic continues
In the last week before the holiday, global AI panic continues to spread.
Software stocks in the U.S. stock market plummeted indiscriminately, and Apple, with its thick eyebrows and big eyes, began to be questioned. Apart from hardware, there is almost no good direction.
According to Bloomberg statistics, we haven’t seen anything like this since the dot-com bubble burst.
Over the past eight trading days, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have fallen 7% or more in a single day.
In the past, when this happened, the average market retracement was about 34%, but in 2026, the index is still at a high level.
The domestic situation is the same as but different from the U.S. stock market.
The difference is that the trading volume of US stocks is still booming, while the Chinese stock market has begun to boil frogs in lukewarm water.
On February 10, US stock trading volume exceeded US$1 trillion in a single day, setting another record high. Due to the Spring Festival effect, the Chinese stock market has been slightly light in trading. The basic market is 2 trillion, which means it cannot go up or down.
On February 13, the central bank released deposit and loan data for January. As a result, non-bank deposits related to the stock market increased significantly by 1.45 trillion. You know, in January last year, non-bank deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion. Make a judgment.
However, as the index began to trade sideways and individual stocks fell more than they rose, the funds that entered the market at the beginning of the year slowly lost their enthusiasm.
This week, AI applications such as large models have become a few market highlights, with overperformance in both Shanghai and Shenzhen. Zhipu, a large model company, saw its stock price surge by 140% in a single week.
The sudden surge in AI applications is the result of the simultaneous emergence of a series of important catalysts.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on February 9, leaders learned about information technology application innovation in Beijing, inspected demonstrations of representative scientific and technological innovation achievements, and had cordial exchanges with scientific researchers and representatives of technology enterprise leaders.
According to subsequent disclosures, AI application companies such as large models are the main direction of investigation.
Just one day after the inspection, on February 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued implementation opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding.
The opinions pointed out that in accordance with the principles of government guidance, multi-party participation, scenario traction, and safety and controllability, the application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding and bidding will be actively and steadily promoted, and full coverage application will be achieved in some provinces and cities by the end of 2026.
The country has strong support, and market participants have also delivered answers that exceeded expectations.
Recently, ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 video generation model has become popular around the world. Many professionals believe that it is comparable to the deepseek moment last year.
Feng Ji, the creator of the Black Wukong myth and CEO of Game Science, issued an article on February 10 saying that the newly launched Seedance 2.0 is an amazing leap in AI's ability to understand multi-modal information. AIGC's childhood is over.
On February 12, Musk also posted on social media that the (Seedance) large model was developing too fast.
The disruptive innovation brought by AI may be a fatal blow to many industries.
Seeing Seedance 2.0 coming, the American Film Institute can’t sit still. According to Intelligent Era AGI news, on February 13, the Motion Picture Association of America stated:
In just one day, the Chinese AI service Seedance 2.0 made unauthorized use of U.S. copyright-protected works on a large scale. ByteDance launches such products without effective infringement prevention mechanisms, ignoring mature copyright laws that protect the rights and interests of creators and support millions of American jobs. ByteDance should immediately stop relevant infringement activities.
Despite Byte's actions, they appear to have had little success.
Domestically, BAT, which has been winning for a long time, has been hit, and its stock prices have fallen continuously.
In the Year of the Horse, prices are going to rise?
Citizens of no country in the world like rising prices. This is true for China and the same is true for the United States.
But for those in charge of the economy, moderate price increases are a good sign, while long-term deflation or inflation are not good.
On February 11, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the price situation in January 2026. Although CPI is positive year-on-year (0.2%), compared with the end of 2025 (0.8%), the growth rate has fallen rapidly.
According to the Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year increase in CPI fell mainly due to two reasons: the wrong month of the Spring Festival and the drop in oil prices.
Among them, the impact of the Spring Festival on the wrong month is greater. The Spring Festival of 2025 is in January, and weighted items such as meat, eggs, vegetables, and milk will see large increases in the Spring Festival month. According to calculations by Soochow Securities, fresh vegetables alone have a downward effect on CPI of 0.27 percentage points.
However, even excluding the impact of the Spring Festival dislocation, the CPI trend is still weaker than the historical average.
According to agency statistics, since 2010, the average month-on-month CPI growth rate in comparable months during the Spring Festival in mid-to-late February has been 0.6%, which is higher than the 0.2% in 2026.
Although the overall situation is average, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is still remarkable. According to the Bureau of Statistics, in January 2026, core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, the highest in the past six months.
According to statistics from Huachuang Securities, among the core CPI, core commodities rose from 2.5% to 2.6% year-on-year, and the increase expanded for nine consecutive months.
The current situation is still far from the moderate inflation that the government wants to achieve, and we may see more warming policies introduced during the year.
On January 30, the Economic Daily published an article in the name of Jin Guanping to promote a reasonable recovery in prices.
The article pointed out that only by operating prices within a reasonable range can we not only ensure the stability of residents' basic living costs, but also allow enterprises to obtain reasonable profit margins.
This will help encourage enterprises to expand investment and innovation, which will in turn lead to an increase in jobs and residents' income, forming a virtuous cycle of "expanded demand – reasonable prices – positive expectations – strong investment".
Promoting a reasonable recovery in prices can also force the supply side to shift from "fighting for low prices" to "fighting for quality and experience", guiding the flow of production factors to high value-added areas, optimizing the efficiency of resource allocation, and accelerating the coordinated upgrading of consumption structure and industrial structure.
Although it is a consensus that prices will rise reasonably, how to prescribe the right medicine is the key.
After a series of anti-XX measures in 2025, various positions will continue to exert their efforts in the beginning of 2026.
According to the Financial Associated Press on February 9, the Ministry of Transport recently interviewed AutoNavi. The main content of the interview was about issues such as lowering freight rates and inadequate management.
The Ministry of Transport requires AutoNavi to strengthen monitoring and early warning of abnormal price and income fluctuations; conscientiously implement its public commitment to reduce commissions (charges) to ensure reasonable income for drivers; and prevent orders from being resold and commissioned at different levels.
These measures are intended to protect the interests of online ride-hailing drivers and also to increase the price of online ride-hailing. In a word, no price war is allowed.
On the same day, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly provided employment administrative guidance to 16 companies including Meituan, Taobao Flash Sales, and JD.com. Enterprises are required to effectively protect the rights and interests of workers in the new employment form.
We have analyzed many times before that the platform economy has developed to this day, and the result of low price theory is to sacrifice the interests of users, merchants, riders and other parties.
If you want quality and credit to return to normal levels, you must increase takeout prices to a reasonable level. In Jin Guanping’s words, only in this way can a virtuous cycle of “expanding demand – reasonable prices – improving expectations – and vigorous investment” be formed.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the "Internet Platform Antitrust Compliance Guidelines" were released.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, the "Guidelines" specifically proposed new monopoly risks in eight scenarios, including: algorithmic collusion between platforms, organizations helping operators within the platforms reach monopoly agreements, unfair high prices on platforms, sales below cost by platforms, blocking, "choose one" behavior, "the lowest price in the entire network", differential treatment by platforms, etc.
“The lowest price on the entire network” is one of the monopoly risks.
According to China's policy logic, as long as it is determined, it will fundamentally change.
In fact, many businesses have recently begun to increase takeout prices. On February 2, Business Week and other media published articles stating that restaurant chains such as KFC and Cudi Coffee have recently increased takeout prices and reduced subsidies.
Let’s look at Cudi first.
Starting from February 1, 2026, Kudi Coffee will only retain 3-7 products in the special price area, which will continue to sell for 9.9 yuan. The remaining products will return to the regular selling price of 11.9-16.9 yuan, and some core single products will increase by 30%-60%.
This is the first time Cudi has returned to normalcy since joining the 9.9 game on May 24, 2024.
Cudi’s main rival Luckin also made similar moves, even earlier. Unless you purchase a membership card, it is almost impossible to enjoy 9.9 on a regular basis.
Why have tea brands such as Kudi and Luckin given up on 9.9? In addition to government guidance, a return to business common sense may be the main reason.
According to Luckin’s financial report, its revenue in the third quarter of 2025 was 15.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%.
Revenue has soared, but profits are another story. In the third quarter, Ruixing’s operating profit was 1.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 12.9%, and the net profit margin fell to 8.4%.
You know, in the same period in 2024, Ruixing's net profit margin was once as high as 12.9%.
While the prices of Luckin and Cudi were strangulating, upstream coffee beans continued to rise sharply. According to tradingeconomics data, coffee prices have more than doubled since 2024 and will remain at a high level in 2026.
The cost has increased significantly while the unit price remains unchanged, which obviously does not conform to business logic. As a result, either the coffee is getting weaker, or the company's profitability drops significantly, or both.
Unlike Cudi who canceled their price discounts, KFC actually raised their prices.
On January 26, according to International Finance News, KFC, a subsidiary of Yum China, increased takeout prices by an average of RMB 0.8.
At the performance exchange meeting on February 4, Yum China CEO explained that this KFC price adjustment is a mild adjustment that only affects the takeout menu and does not have any changes to dine-in prices. Promotions such as 'Crazy Thursday' have also not been adjusted.
Why raise prices for takeaways? The CEO of Yum China said that this was mainly to offset the increase in rider costs caused by the increase in the proportion of food delivery.
KFC's takeout is mainly its own delivery, using its own delivery staff. In other words, if the proportion of takeout increases, more delivery staff will need to be recruited, and the cost will indeed increase.
According to the latest financial report, Yum China's takeout sales will increase by 25% year-on-year in 2025, and takeout sales will account for approximately 48% of the company's restaurant revenue, an increase from 39% last year.
The following is a KFC dine-in and takeaway price list compiled by International Financial News:
It is not difficult to see that the price of takeout is very different from that of dine-in, which reflects the labor cost.
I believe many people have experienced that if the price of dine-in at a restaurant is the same as that of takeout, or even cheaper after platform subsidies, the taste and quality are often discounted. KFC's approach at least ensures close quality.
Prepared dishes, which are closely related to takeout catering, have also seen new developments recently. On February 6, the National Health Commission’s website posted the “National Food Safety Standards for Prepared Dishes (Draft for Comments)”.
The consultation draft clarifies the definition of prepared dishes as:
Prepackaged dishes are made from one or more edible agricultural products and their products as raw materials, with or without the use of seasonings and other auxiliary materials, without the addition of preservatives, through industrial pre-processing (such as mixing, pickling, rolling, shaping, stir-frying, frying, roasting, boiling, steaming, etc.), with or without seasoning packets, and can be eaten after being heated or cooked.
The category of prepared dishes does not include staple foods, clean vegetable foods, ready-to-eat foods and dishes made in central kitchens.
The dishes produced in the central kitchen, which have been controversial before, are clearly not pre-made dishes.
It’s worth noting that it’s not the pre-prepared dishes that have added preservatives.
Will a large number of Chinese patent medicines withdraw from the market? misunderstanding
Recently, many media have published articles saying that a large number of Chinese patent medicines will withdraw from the market.
What's going on?
The media quoted the "Special Regulations on the Registration and Management of Traditional Chinese Medicines" issued by the State Food and Drug Administration in February 2023. Starting from July 1, 2026, any Chinese patent medicine that is still marked as "unclear" in the drug instructions [Contraindications], [Adverse Reactions], and [Precautions] will not be registered for marketing.
According to media reports such as The Paper, monitoring data from the China Association of Traditional Chinese Medicine shows that as of the end of 2025, there were approximately 57,000 valid approval numbers for proprietary Chinese medicines in my country, involving approximately 9,000 varieties, of which more than 40,000 approval documents were marked as "unclear" in terms of contraindications, adverse reactions, or precautions.
More than 40,000 approval documents were marked as "unclear" and quickly spread after being widely disseminated by the media.
Many people believe that the traditional Chinese medicine industry will usher in a major purge.
Is this really the case? Not so.
According to the analysis of Deng Yong, a professor of health law at Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, the "Special Provisions on the Registration and Management of Traditional Chinese Medicine" is not an airborne policy. It was announced as early as early 2023, leaving relevant companies with relatively sufficient time to revise the instructions. For important traditional Chinese medicine products, pharmaceutical companies are likely to start related work early.
"People's Daily" reported that data from the State Food and Drug Administration showed that the vast majority of traditional Chinese medicine varieties have completed this round of re-registration in the past two years.
Southern Plus quoted people in the traditional Chinese medicine industry as saying that most of the above-mentioned approvals (more than 40,000) are "zombie approvals" that have not been produced for a long time and have low clinical value. Approvals for proprietary Chinese medicines that are truly active and widely used in the market account for less than 10%.
"Zombie approval" is the focus of this cleanup and will not affect the normal use of medicine by ordinary people.
Taking Isatis granules as an example, there may be more than 700 existing approval documents, but the actual products on sale should not exceed 100. The remaining 600 or so approval documents are called "zombie approval documents."
Zhang Boli, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that according to the national adverse drug reaction/event reports in the past five years, traditional Chinese medicines account for 12% and chemical drugs account for 81%. Traditional Chinese medicines are relatively safe. The core purpose of the promulgation of this regulation is to fill in the shortcomings of safety information in the instructions of Chinese patent medicines and promote the high-quality development of the Chinese medicine industry.
Another point that has been misunderstood is that July 1, 2026 is not the real closing time.
According to an article in the "People's Daily" on January 30, the "Special Regulations on the Registration and Management of Traditional Chinese Medicine" will be implemented on July 1, 2023, with a three-year transition period. In addition, the drug re-registration cycle is five years, and the policy actually sets a transition period of three to eight years.
In other words, the real "closure" time should be in 2031.
Improving the quality of traditional Chinese medicines is a general trend. In addition to the "Special Provisions on the Registration and Management of Traditional Chinese Medicines", many policies have been introduced recently.
On February 5, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for the High-Quality Development of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry (2026-2030)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan").
The "Implementation Plan" puts forward many clear quantitative goals, such as cultivating 60 high-standard traditional Chinese medicine raw material production bases; building 5 traditional Chinese medicine industry integrity innovation centers; promoting the approval of a number of innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs for marketing, cultivating 10 new varieties of traditional Chinese medicines, and promoting the transformation of a number of medical institutions' traditional Chinese medicine preparations into innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs.
Innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs have always been a top priority in the reform of the traditional Chinese medicine system, and some results have been achieved in recent years.
According to data from the State Food and Drug Administration, since 2020, several first-class innovative drugs with "non-classic famous prescriptions" have been launched every year.
In 2025, the number of approved new traditional Chinese medicines will accelerate. A total of 32 models were approved throughout the year, 7 of which were Category 1.1 innovative traditional Chinese medicines, a four-year high.
Of course, there are more "ancient classic recipes" based on expert review mechanisms. In 2025, a total of 23 models will be approved, accounting for more than 70%.
In addition to making a fuss about traditional Chinese medicine innovation, the government is also raising the threshold of the production process.
On March 1, 2026, the "Special Provisions on the Supervision and Management of Production of Traditional Chinese Medicines" was officially implemented. This regulation puts forward stricter requirements on the processing, packaging, labeling and other aspects of traditional Chinese medicine.
For traditional Chinese medicine companies, they are still in the throes of centralized procurement, with little innovation contribution, and the overall situation is still in a period of adjustment.
According to statistics from China International Finance Securities, as of the third quarter of 2025, the gross profits and net profits of listed Chinese medicine companies have continued to decline.
According to Choice data, as of the end of January, 29 Chinese medicine companies had disclosed their performance for 2025, and only one had an increase in net profit.
The stock price trend also reflects the market's attitude towards the traditional Chinese medicine industry. When the market climbed to 4,000 points, the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index was still hovering near 10,000 points, which is the 2020 level.
If rare earths are no longer scarce, where is the trump card?
Just when China was on the verge of overcoming GPU limitations, Japan, with the support of the United States, achieved a breakthrough in the field of rare earths.
On February 2, the Japanese Cabinet Office announced that rare earth mud was successfully mined from the waters of Minamitorishima, and stated that if the experiment is successful, Japan is expected to start commercial mining in February 2027.
According to reports from Nikkei and other media, this extraction is part of the "Japan Strategic Innovation and Creation Plan (SIP)", for which the Japan Marine Research and Development Agency has been preparing for 15 years.
Japan emphasized that this is the first step for Japan to realize the domestic industrialization of rare earths.
According to Japanese media estimates, the Minami Toriyama Sea is rich in mineral deposits, which can meet the current global consumption demand for dysprosium for 730 years and yttrium for 780 years.
Once such huge amounts of rare earth elements are commercially mined on a large scale in Japan, it is destined that rare earth elements will no longer be scarce.
Our response is nuanced. At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 3, the spokesperson stated that there have been such reports in Japan in recent years.
Even more subtle are our actual actions.
On February 6, Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that multiple trade sources said that relevant Chinese authorities have approved a number of rare earth exports to Japan. Sources said Japan was once worried that tightening controls would lead to a suspension of exports, but in fact there was no comprehensive embargo.
How to understand it?
It's a bit like the US's GPU restrictions on China. We have analyzed many times in our articles before that Japan, as the first country to be controlled by rare earths, has relatively mature response experience and has been actively preparing for the long-term independent control of rare earths.
At present, the United States is becoming more and more important behind Japan.
On February 3, according to media reports such as Zhitong Finance, Laochuan launched a strategic key mineral reserve plan. The estimated investment of $12 billion is aimed at reducing U.S. dependence on China for rare earths and other metals.
Lao Chuan said that this reserve, called the "Vault Plan", will be the first critical mineral reserve in U.S. history, ensuring that American businesses and workers will never be harmed by any supply shortage.
The US$12 billion in financing consists of two parts, with US$10 billion provided by the Export-Import Bank of the United States and US$2 billion from the private sector.
What are the strategic mineral metals? The United States has not yet made it clear.
However, according to the list of critical minerals released in November 2025, in addition to rare earths, 10 minerals including copper, silver, and uranium may be counted.
The United States' strategic key mineral reserve plan has been recognized by many Western countries. After all, it has common interests with the United States in this regard.
According to Jiemian News, Burgum, head of the U.S. National Energy Council, revealed that about 30 countries, including Japan, Australia and South Korea, hope to join a key minerals trading club composed of U.S. allies and partners.
Burgum further stated that the club will implement tariff-free trade and exchanges and set a price floor for mineral products.
In addition to rare earths, which other strategic minerals does China have strong control over? Tungsten, which is widely used in military and aerospace applications, is one of them.
According to the United States Geological Survey, in 2025, China's tungsten reserves accounted for 52% of the world's total, and its production accounted for more than 80%.
From the perspective of changes in reserves, China and Russia are the only countries with proven reserves that are still growing significantly.
In 2023, China's tungsten ore resource reserves surged by 27.78%, and Russia's reserves also increased by more than 50% in 2020.
As China's various "dig and dig" plans accelerate, China's tungsten resources may be able to reach a higher level.
Compared with rare earths, China has stronger control over tungsten, and has a monopoly position from the most upstream resources to product processing.
In February 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export controls on tungsten and other related items. Export operators must apply for permission from relevant departments if they need to export.
Two months later, the country also began to tighten its restrictions on tungsten resources.
On April 21, 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total volume control indicators for tungsten mining in 2025 (the first batch). Compared with 2024, the total amount has decreased by 6.45%.
This is the first downward adjustment after 2020, and the global market believes that this is an irreversible trend.
With changes in the supply structure and rising market expectations for tight supply in the future, tungsten products have surged across the board. As of February 13, 2026, the main varieties have increased by 4 to 5 times.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China will export a total of 13,149 tons of tungsten products in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 27.51%, and the control effect is obvious.
In terms of imports, China will import 22,900 tons of tungsten products in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.59%. The signal of China’s tungsten hoarding is obvious.
Overseas, except for Kazakhstan’s Bakuta tungsten mine, which has seen significant growth in the past two years, production in Canada, the United Kingdom and other European and American countries has fallen short of expectations.
America's hope lies with Canadian company Almonty.
In July 2025, it was revealed that Almonty had signed a three-year offtake agreement with a U.S. defense contractor for exclusive use by the U.S. military.
In July, with the help of the United States, Almonty also landed on the Nasdaq. In half a year, its stock price increased more than four times, giving it more financing capabilities and accelerating the mining of tungsten resources.
When Lao Chuan fights with Canada, he has to make careful decisions.
Which provinces will rise in 2026?
2025 is over. The GDP at the national level has reached the standard, but what about the local level?
According to statistics from Caitong Securities, there is about a 50-50 split between those who achieved their goals and those who failed to achieve them.
Hebei, Shandong, Shanghai, and Beijing exceeded their expectations, while Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Guangdong had a bit high expectations for themselves.
Don’t chase what’s gone, and keep working hard in the future.
The local two sessions that just concluded have clearly outlined the growth blueprint for various regions in 2026. According to media reports such as Lianhe Zaobao, the major economic provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang) generally set their GDP growth target at around 5 in 2026, which may also be a national-level target.
After leaders expressed greater tolerance for slowing economic growth, more provinces lowered their economic targets.
As many as 19 countries have lowered their growth forecasts for 2026, and only Jiangxi has raised its growth target to 5%-5.5%.
It is worth mentioning that Guangdong and Zhejiang have set range targets in 2026. The last time the two provinces set range targets was in 2019 and 2020.
Look at key segmentation targets such as consumption and investment.
According to agency statistics, the zero-weighted growth target of each province's social sector in 2026 is 0.2 percentage points lower than that in 2025. Does this mean that the national social zero target will be further lowered? It's possible.
In terms of fixed investment, the weighted values of each province are also a little lower than in 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points.
At the real estate level, urban village renovation and old community renovation, which have been relatively important in recent years, have also experienced varying degrees of decline.
According to Huachuang Securities, the number of households renovated in urban villages dropped by 77% in Zhejiang and 68% in Chongqing. The renovation of old residential areas in Beijing fell by 76% and in Jiangsu by 57%.
At present, only Shanghai has taken a positive stance on the transformation of urban villages and made it clear that it will fully launch the overall transformation project of urban villages. In addition, Shandong has also stepped up efforts to renovate old residential areas.
Provinces with large economies are better equipped to develop science and technology industries. The Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area almost all regard technological innovation as one of their core tasks.
For example, Zhejiang Province ranks first or second among its key tasks in 2026, with consumption ranking third.
After reading the annual plans of various places, you will find that the variables are in the stock market and property market.
Taking Shanghai as an example, in 2025, due to the wealth effect of the stock market, real estate, finance, and consumption will all perform better than expected.
According to data from the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of December 2025, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits in Shanghai increased by 11.3% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the national level.
According to analysis by the Money and Credit Research Department of the Shanghai Headquarters of the People's Bank of China, in Shanghai in 2025, the growth rate of demand deposits of households and non-financial enterprises has rebounded significantly from the end of the previous year, while the growth rate of time deposits and other deposits has fallen accordingly.
This confirms the phenomenon of Shanghai investors moving their deposits.
Unlike other regions, Shanghai also benefits from foreign investment. According to data from the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the total cross-border receipts and payments under Shanghai's securities investment will increase by more than 19% year-on-year in 2025, mainly due to foreign capital's participation in RMB asset allocation.
Thanks to the stock market, Shanghai's property market is also heating up.
According to statistics from the Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China, at the end of 2025, housing loans in Shanghai increased by 8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2024 level.
Similar places to Shanghai are Hong Kong.
Against the backdrop of strong Hong Kong stocks and booming IPOs, Hong Kong assets have been collectively sought after, and the Hong Kong property market has shifted from recovery to growth.
Currently, most institutions predict that Hong Kong's property market will rise by 5% in 2026, and the more optimistic Centaline Real Estate even believes that it will rise by 15%.
If China's stock market continues to heat up in 2026, the wealth effect in developed regions will further emerge. Drawing on the experience of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the property market may recover faster than expected.
If it comes true, the economic performance of developed provinces may exceed expectations, and the overall level of China's economy will therefore rise.
In January 2026, second-hand housing sales in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and other places have exceeded expectations.
According to official disclosures from various places, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai in January exceeded 22,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.18%, which was the highest level in the same period in the past five years.
In Beijing, 15,000 second-hand residential units were signed online in January, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, holding steady at the boom-bust level of 14,000 units for three consecutive months.
Shenzhen recorded 6,802 second-hand houses in January, a significant year-on-year increase of 45.5%, hitting a new high in the past 10 months.
If the above performance continues, the economy in 2026 may be far beyond plan.
This week's Tan articles are the last regular articles of Ye Tan Finance before the Spring Festival. We will start updating normally on February 21st (the fifth day of the Lunar New Year). Here, we wish all our friends good health and safety in the Year of the Horse in advance.
