On December 30, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical crossroads, and the debate over whether the "four-year cycle" has expired has heated up. FXGT believes that as Bitcoin evolves from a fringe asset to a global macro safe-haven asset, its operating logic has undergone a fundamental paradigm shift. Although the traditional halving effect still exists at the psychological level, its absolute dominance over market supply and demand is gradually being diluted by more complex macro-financial variables.
In an in-depth analysis of market capital flows, FXGT found that the institutionalization process is the primary driver of breaking the cycle. As analysts such as Ruck said, the continuous buying brought by spot ETFs provides a deep liquidity cushion for the market. This kind of structural capital injection is completely different from the previous "surges and crashes" dominated by retail investors. This change not only weakens the amplitude of the retracement after the peak, but also blurs the originally clear cycle boundaries.
The loosening of macroeconomic policies and the expansion of global liquidity are becoming new engines for the market. Data from Grayscale shows that as devaluation pressure on fiat currencies continues, Bitcoin’s macro-hedge properties have become increasingly prominent. When traditional financial giants such as Standard Chartered Bank begin to revise their 2026 earnings expectations and abandon cyclical models, it signals that the market is shifting from "halving-driven" to "macro-driven." Against this background, Bitcoin's trend will be more subject to interest rate decisions and fluctuations in the global credit cycle.
However, there are still voices in the market that insist on cyclical theory. 10x Research and other institutions say that the trend at the end of 2025 is consistent with the characteristics of a typical bear market. FXGT believes that this game of opinion just illustrates the complexity of market psychology. Many long-term holders (OGs) conducted precautionary selling based on the memory of the market trauma in 2021. This "self-fulfilling prophecy" behavior did suppress currency prices in the short term, but it does not necessarily mean that the four-year logic still holds true in the long term.
Regarding the outlook for the market outlook, FXGT emphasized that investors should no longer blindly apply past halving schedules. With the rise of the AI track and the strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, the competition for funds in the crypto market has entered a stage of parallel stock and increase. As analyst Wacy said, the cycle may not be broken, but it is being stretched and redefined. This "structural extension" means that future opportunities will be more hidden in the revaluation of values after shocks and washouts.
Ultimately, no matter how the definition of the four-year cycle evolves, 2026 will be a critical window to validate the new order. Facing a market that is deviating from the traditional path, investors need to build a more inclusive analysis framework and place policy wind direction, institutional holding costs and liquidity trends at a higher priority than the halving time point. FXGT believes that in this evolving market, only by gaining insight into changes in the underlying logic can we grasp the true direction in the fog of cycles.
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