Compiled by: Tim, PANews
PANews Note: The content of this article is only the author’s personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR.
Bitcoin hits all-time high of $123,000, but when will altcoins pull back?
I looked back at the last three Bitcoin breakouts to look for patterns, and now the signals are finally coming back.
What’s next for ETH, SOL, XRP and other mainstream currencies?
Bitcoin is in the price discovery stage, but altcoin momentum has stalled, and large-capitalization coins have yet to take off.
Let’s see what happens when the market breaks out?
Every time Bitcoin breaks out of the market since mid-2023, it triggers a collective rebound in altcoins:
After each breakthrough, altcoins will usher in a 3-5 week outbreak window period. Then Bitcoin enters consolidation, its dominance recovers, and the gains of altcoins are swallowed up.
Now, we are in a similar scenario:
Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of $107,000 and is currently rising to $123,000, which may hit the $150,000 mark.
If the laws of history hold true, we are now at the beginning of a new round of copycat season.
But beware: this is not a half-year-long altcoin carnival season, but a sprint.
Bitcoin dominance has not fallen below key levels, so this is not a full-blown alt season.
If Bitcoin dominance stops rising, altcoins will still rise. That's exactly what happened the past two rounds.
The trends of the three major mainstream currencies, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, have clearly diverged.
Ethereum lagged behind Bitcoin significantly in late 2023, but has gradually bottomed out on every pullback since.
Solana took the strong lead early on, but now its momentum is almost stagnant.
XRP started out weak but experienced explosive gains after last year’s U.S. election.
Signs of capital rotation are obvious
An obvious phenomenon currently is that payment tokens have been launched first:
XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC
“Bank tokens” that comply with ISO20022 standards are taking the lead in gaining favor from funds
Large market capitalization coins that have not yet been launched will be my focus:
These are the core rotation targets.
If Solana begins to gain funding, its ecological tokens are worthy of attention:
BONK has soared 89%, and PENGU has become the most popular Meme in the crypto Twitter circle
Layer 1 imitation disk relay: Sui, Aptos, AVAX (not started since November 2023)
TAO and PEPE performed well in 2023:
They display powerful narratives when Bitcoin rises. If a new "shining narrative" emerges, we need to act decisively.
What is my current trading plan?
Fund rotation is the key, do not blindly chase the rise.
Altcoins may usher in a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: stop when you see good times, don’t be greedy
If Bitcoin reaches US$150,000, the top 20 currencies by market capitalization may collectively follow suit, and some assets may experience huge compensatory increases.
Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon positions on stagnant stocks.
Maintain a bullish mentality and don't fall into a blind carnival. Keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance and observe BTC trading pair activity.
Although the current period is not a frenzied cycle like 2017 and 2021, it is still a solid and reliable window period. Small market capitalization currencies will eventually rotate, but they need to wait for the opportunity.
