On April 9, 2013, a military policeman observed from the observation tower at the East Union Prison in Havana, Cuba.
Cuba, which is in deep economic trouble, announced a rare large-scale measure on Thursday under increasingly severe stress tests by the Trump administration in the United States.
According to an announcement in Cuba's official newspaper Granma, the Cuban government will release 2,010 prisoners. It was the country's largest release in recent years. An official statement noted that the pardon was based on the prisoner's "good behaviour, health and the nature of the act committed".
The survival game behind "Holy Week"
Although "Granma" stated in its announcement that the release coincided with "Holy Week religious celebrations" and was designed to echo the atmosphere of Christians around the world celebrating Easter, the outside world generally regarded it as a strategic adjustment by Cuba under the pressure campaign from the United States.
The release list covers young people, women, people over 60 and foreigners, but explicitly excludes prisoners who committed murder, homicide, sexual assault or "crimes against authority." Human Rights Watch has previously accused Cuba of targeting dissidents, activists and political opponents with detentions.
In fact, such mass releases are often linked to diplomatic negotiations. In early 2025, Cuba reached an agreement with the United States and the Vatican to release 553 prisoners in exchange for the Biden administration's commitment to easing sanctions. However, Donald Trump quickly rescinded the agreement after taking office, causing Cuba to suspend subsequent releases until March this year.
Energy blockade and the island "coming to a standstill"
Cuba is currently facing one of the most severe tests since the 1959 revolution that overthrew the Batista regime. Earlier this year, the Trump administration successfully cut off oil supplies to Cuba through military action against Venezuela and threats of tariffs against Mexico.
Trump insisted that the Cuban government must finally "open up the island's centralized economy" before it collapses. He even openly talked on multiple occasions about wanting to "occupy Cuba." Its core staff, "Cuba hawks" including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have long called for an overhaul of its leadership.
The impact of the oil embargo was devastating: In March this year, Cuba experienced two nationwide blackouts within a week, affecting more than 10 million people. Many schools have been forced to close and workers have been forced to take unpaid leave to conserve energy. Due to a lack of long-haul aviation fuel, some flights have been canceled and vehicles are running out of fuel.
A "crack" in a desperate situation?
Earlier this week, a subtle crack appeared in the lockdown. Trump made an exception and allowed a Russian-flagged oil tanker to enter Cuban waters, saying bluntly: "They must survive." Although the White House immediately clarified that this was "not a change of policy," the move was particularly eye-catching in the context of the harsh embargo.
Caught between more than half a century of economic embargo and a new round of "maximum pressure," it remains to be seen whether the release of these 2,010 prisoners is an olive branch from Cuba, or a forced reduction in resources due to scarcity.
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