I originally planned to do a review of recent transactions, but when I was just browsing the information, I saw a message saying that the largest short order holder in Hyperliquid Bitcoin had taken a loss of US$2.345 million and cleared its position. How can I put it, this news makes me more anxious about the industry.
This is not to say that there is anxiety about the market, but that people who have made money in the past are forced to enter the gaming market – and once they enter this state, it means that this market is no longer an investment market, but a high-frequency liquidation engine.
I have said many times publicly or internally that I only do two things this season, one is to hoard Bitcoin, and the other is to trade. Some people always ask why I don't pay attention to new tracks —– but this decision is exactly the decision I made after in-depth research on all new tracks, and it is also a decision to protect myself.
From 2017 to now, the currency circle has experienced various ups and downs. For example, the Mentougou incident, the 94 incident, the FTX thunderstorm, the 3AC thunderstorm, etc. Although these have had a severe impact on currency prices, they are just "children's fights" in the circle.
The disruption of DeFi, NFT, and the Metaverse in 2022 is both a good thing and a bad thing for the industry. The good thing is that the currency circle has finally entered the vision of the global capital market; the bad thing is that without a stable decentralized order, it has faced a heavier test in advance. Now it seems that the results are obviously unsatisfactory.
I have repeatedly said that the first value of the currency circle is called "decentralization", which is to establish an "economic system without centralized definitions and modified rules, and everyone competes fairly under the rules." This is the greatest value of the currency circle. Otherwise, there is no way to beat the traditional financial system at any level of efficiency. If it cannot be beaten, it will not be subverted. Without subversion, there will be no new wealth distribution. It will only be co-opted, tamed, and disappear.
But now, apart from Bitcoin, I can only say that "decentralization" has made no achievements. Not only has it made no achievements, it is also being attacked from both sides.
Externally, Wall Street is dissolving the fundamental tenets of "decentralization" through ETFs, RWAs, stablecoins, regulations and policies, and is trying to turn the decentralized financial system on the chain into the dollar hegemony on the centralized chain, and the results are not bad – to this day, everyone is talking about compliance, the expansion of institutional risk exposure, the currency circle has joined the mainstream world, and all the gains and losses no longer come from the value discovery of "decentralization".
Internally, when there is no breakthrough in the application, PERP and the prediction market become the last nuggets. In particular, the rise of Hyperliquid has made leveraged trading lower, the matching efficiency is faster, assets wear out faster, funds are redistributed, and the money goes into the pockets of casino owners—–Have you ever seen any casino owner who creates value for the industry, like Musk?
The reason why it is attacked from both sides is that, except for Bitcoin, the industry has no real censorship-resistant advantages, no institutional advantages that cannot be tampered with, and no institutional dividends. Most of the so-called decentralized applications are essentially "centralized products on the chain."
In the past, my assets were often divided into three layers for betting. The first layer was cross-cycle betting, buying Bitcoin; the second layer was to take advantage of fluctuations, that is, trading; and the last layer was the application layer where the betting narrative had not yet been formed. Now the last layer has been cut off directly, which is very sad because I confirm that there is no new value in the industry and I can only choose to live.
Note that I choose to live, not leave. It’s not that this industry doesn’t have commercial products, it also has Bitcoin. The current currency circle is no longer a stranger, but is truly facing the mainstream world and the impact of centralization.
What cannot be defeated will make it stronger. Although I am anxious, I am still determined. I still think that the currency circle is a place where new worlds are created, even if it now behaves like an efficient harvesting machine.
But throughout the ages, all emerging assets in history have experienced it, and 90% of the time they are in the stage of excessive financialization, and the remaining 10% of the time is changing the world.
The currency circle has reached its most critical moment, which is also the moment of nirvana and rebirth. "Moment" is a time process. It will not get better in the short term, but it will become more real. In the long term, all real things will become more expensive.
But what really determines your destiny. It’s not about whether the industry has ideals but:
Did we survive at the wrong stage?
——
Believe in the power of belief, we have never been disappointed here.
Risk warning: Digital assets are a high-risk investment target. The general public is requested to view the blockchain rationally, increase risk awareness, and establish correct currency concepts and investment concepts.
