In Arabic, Mandeb means "Gate of Tears", which is intended to describe the danger of traveling through this place.
This strait is about 100 kilometers long and 32 kilometers wide. About 6 million to 7 million barrels of oil pass through it every day. It is one of the busiest straits for global oil trade and is generally regarded as the world's second largest energy chokepoint.
Especially after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil-producing countries were forced to use the Bab el Mandeb route as the only remaining export channel.
Today, this "door" is completely within the range of Houthi armed missiles and drones.
What is even more worrying is that if the two major throats of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are cut off at the same time, the impact will be far beyond imagination.
"Hormuz itself is one of the most critical energy channels in the world, and once the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fails again, the efficiency of the Gulf-Red Sea-Suez trunk line will collapse significantly." Wang Lei, an assistant researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Sanlihe.
He analyzed that this will push the market to a stage of "close to panic, but still constrained by fundamentals". The focus of market pricing is no longer just how much oil the world produces, but whether the oil can safely reach buyers.
In other words, the system will not "return to zero in an instant", but will shift from mainline transportation to a state of "few bypasses, higher costs, and lower efficiency"; the oil market will shift from traditional production logic to the logic of accessibility, insurability, and shipability.
If this route is disrupted, ships will be forced to take longer detours. According to an analysis by the UAE's "The Nation", this will extend the voyage by 10 to 15 days, resulting in significant additional costs.
Wang Lei analyzed that the additional costs mainly come from four parts-fuel consumption caused by longer voyages, chartering costs caused by longer turnovers, insurance costs caused by higher risks, and inventory financing costs caused by goods staying at sea for longer.
"If the four rise together, oil prices will easily slide from fundamental pricing to pricing driven by sentiment and liquidity."
The market is paying for safety and detours with real money.
The most intuitive manifestation is that the global energy market has been hit again.
On March 30, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London exceeded US$116 per barrel, approaching the highest intraday record since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war.
Experts warn that oil prices could soar to as high as $150 a barrel if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked or severely disrupted.
However, if the Bab el-Mandeb crisis strikes, it will affect far more than just oil.
"The entire Red Sea Corridor carries about 30% of the world's container traffic." Kieran Tolat, a trader at GMS, a world-renowned shipping agency, said that as the southern gate of the Red Sea and Suez Corridor, the threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will affect container transportation, bulk and dry cargo transportation, insurance premiums, and overall shipping operations in Asia and Europe.
According to the Associated Press, about 12% of global merchandise trade passes through the strait, with major commodities ranging from cereals to toys to electronic products.
For many shipping companies, this route is the fastest and most cost-effective link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean.
Right now, the items in ordinary consumers’ shopping carts may be stuck on this route. When the "Gate of Tears" really sheds tears, the numbers on consumer bills around the world are the most authentic proof.
("Sanlihe" Studio)
