The Philippines is a bit "sophisticated" these days.
Not long ago, Philippine President Musk also publicly shouted to China that he hoped to restart China-Philippines cooperation in oil and gas development in the South China Sea. Marcos vowed that the reset of Philippines-China relations will definitely happen, and it is happening now.
Philippine President Says He Hopes to Restart China-Philippines Oil and Gas Cooperation
However, at the same time, the Philippine military is making trouble against China. Recently, at a defense forum in Paris, France, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro suddenly attacked China in front of representatives from many countries, claiming that China "ignored the 2016 arbitration award."
It needs to be made clear here that the so-called "2016 South China Sea Arbitration Award" mentioned by the Philippine Defense Secretary is a completely useless piece of paper. China has made it clear from the beginning that it will not accept or recognize the ruling. The reason is very simple. This ruling was completely unilaterally promoted by the Philippines. China was not involved from the beginning to the end, and the ruling does not have any legal effect.
The Philippine military is making trouble out of nothing by using this as an excuse. This is completely opposite to Marcos's attitude of seeking cooperation.
To understand the attitude of the Philippine military, one cannot avoid a core variable—the United States.
For a long time, the Philippine military has had a very close relationship with the United States and is highly dependent on it for training, equipment and intelligence systems. In this context, the Philippine military has become the "spokesperson" of the United States to some extent. Therefore, we can see that whenever there are signs of easing of relations between China and the Philippines, the Philippine military will always step on the brakes. After all, once China-Philippines relations truly stabilize, the US military presence and influence in the Philippines will be weakened.
Defense Secretary Teodoro
Interestingly, there were previous rumors that the CIA had secretly supported the Philippine military to launch a coup to overthrow the Marcos government, and promised to elect Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro to serve as the president of the "caretaker government" after the event was completed, while the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Army was responsible for serving as the Minister of Defense.
Although the Philippine military quickly denied the news, judging from its actual performance, the Philippine military is indeed gradually strengthening its political influence: it frequently speaks out on foreign policy, dominates public opinion on security issues, and continues to increase cooperation with the United States. Nowadays, he does not even pay attention to the words of his country's President Marcos, and he has a vague intention to dominate the foreign affairs of the Philippine government.
What is even more intriguing is another recent move by the Philippines in military cooperation—the introduction of Japan.
A few days ago, Commander Brawner of the Philippine Armed Forces stated that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will send a "large force" to participate in this year's "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercise between the United States and the Philippines. Relevant news shows that the number of Japanese combatants participating in the exercise is between 1,000 and 1,500. This is the first time since World War II that such a large number of Japanese combat soldiers have entered the Philippines.
Japanese Self-Defense Forces will go to Philippines to participate in exercises
You know, during World War II, Japan occupied the Philippines for several years, causing extremely serious casualties, with the total number of people at least 1 million. Now, the Philippines has taken the initiative to allow Japanese combat forces to enter the mainland. This is not only "leading the wolf into the house", but also a "humiliation" to the country's history.
Putting all the clues together, it can actually be seen very clearly: the Philippine government is in an extremely chaotic state – at the presidential level, it is trying to ease relations and strive for interests; while at the military level, it continues to intensify confrontation and bind the United States. The two forces are superimposed together to form not a balance, but a tear. The most direct result is that Philippine policies have become increasingly unstable and unpredictable.
This is precisely the reason why China has responded so coldly to the Philippines’ cooperation signals. The Philippines is willing to ease relations with China and hopes to restart cooperation, which China certainly welcomes. But the problem is that the Philippines' stance is too contradictory.
If a country sends signals of cooperation while constantly creating confrontational issues, then the outside world will naturally wonder: What do you really want?
Looking at a deeper level, the real problem in the Philippines now is not its relationship with China, but the changes in the internal power structure – when the military becomes more and more powerful, and when external forces become more and more in-depth, it will be difficult for the country's strategic direction to maintain stability.
To put it more bluntly: In the Philippines today, it is not that there is no chance to improve the situation, but that it has not even figured out "where to go." If this situation continues, then the so-called "seeking cooperation with China" is likely to remain just words; and only the innocent Filipino people will really pay the price.
