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Why Dongpeng Beverage's Hong Kong Stock IPO's Breakthrough Performance Growth Can't Drive The Stock Price

Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Dongpeng Beverage", 605499.SH; 09980.HK) has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for "A + H" dual listings for more than a month. Its Hong Kong stock performance has been poor, and most of its stock prices are at a breaking point. As of the close of trading on March 24, the closing price of Dongpeng Beverage H shares was HK$228.80 per share, down 7.74% from the issue price of HK$248.00 per share. What is intriguing is that Dongpeng Beverage’s previous performance increase announcement stated that the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 will both achieve rapid growth. However, this impressive report card did not support its Hong Kong stock market's "good start", and its A-share stock price has also continued to fall recently.

Steady growth in revenue and net profit, capital market performance lags

In 2025, Dongpeng Beverage's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company will both grow strongly, showing a healthy development trend of "solid fundamentals and new growth poles".

The pre-performance announcement shows that in 2025, Dongpeng Beverage's annual operating income is expected to reach 20.76 billion yuan to 21.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.07% to 33.34%; the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.340 billion to 4.590 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.46% to 37.97%. Dongpeng Beverage stated that the expected increase in performance in 2025 is mainly driven by its main business. The company's channel operation capabilities and two pillar products have injected impetus into performance growth.

Public information shows that Dongpeng Beverage’s main business is the research and development, production and sales of beverages. Its main product categories include energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, tea (type) drinks, coffee (type) drinks, plant protein drinks, and fruit and vegetable juice drinks. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, in terms of sales volume, Dongpeng Beverage has ranked first in China's functional beverage market for four consecutive years since 2021; in terms of retail sales, Dongpeng Beverage will be the second largest functional beverage company in 2024, with a market share of 23.0%.

From the perspective of revenue structure, energy drinks, as the core engine of Dongpeng Beverage, maintain a steady growth trend. In 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, the company's energy drink revenue growth rates are 42.34%, 23.98%, 26.48%, 28.49% and 19.36% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, its energy drink series achieved revenue of 12.563 billion yuan, accounting for 74.63% of the revenue.

Dongpeng Beverage’s second growth curve electrolyte beverage also performed well. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's electrolyte beverage segment revenue reached 2.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.78%, a growth rate far exceeding that of the energy drink segment; the revenue share increased from 9.66% in the same period last year to 16.91%.

Other beverage businesses mainly include low-sugar tea beverages, "Dongpeng Big Coffee" coffee, "Island Coconut" coconut milk and other new products. Most of these products are still in the market cultivation period. In the first three quarters of 2025, Dongpeng Beverage’s other beverages achieved revenue of 1.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.41%, and the revenue ratio was only 8.46%.

Industry insiders pointed out that although Dongpeng Beverage's multi-category layout has achieved initial results, categories such as coffee and plant beverages are in the fiercely competitive "Red Ocean" market. In terms of coffee, the competitors of "Dongpeng Big Coffee" include not only channel giants represented by Nestlé, but also thousands of store-level physical brands such as Luckin, Cudi, and Starbucks; categories such as plant beverages are also facing cross-border "squeezing" from traditional giants such as Wahaha, Nongfu Spring, and new consumer brands such as Yuanqi Forest.

On March 10, Dongpeng Beverage responded to investor questions on an interactive platform and stated that the company adheres to the "1+6" multi-category strategy, with "Dongpeng Special Beverage" as the basic product, continuing to maintain steady growth and industry leadership; new products such as "Dongpeng Water Replenishing La" are rapidly increasing in volume, injecting new momentum into the company's growth, and the two have formed a positive synergy.

However, in contrast to the eye-catching performance data, the stock price of Dongpeng Beverage has been under pressure after the listing of the Hong Kong stock market. Data shows that when the Hong Kong stock market was listed on February 3, the issue price of Dongpeng Beverage was HK$248.00 per share, raising a total of HK$10.141 billion. However, after a brief surge, the stock price showed an overall downward trend. Less than two months after the Hong Kong stock market was listed, the transaction price of Dongpeng Beverage reached as low as HK$203.00 per share, a drop of more than 15% from the issue price.

At the same time, Dongpeng Beverage’s A-share market performance was also lackluster. On February 3, its A-share stock closed at 253.96 yuan/share, a decrease of 1.18% on the day; on March 24, it closed at 224.50 yuan/share, a decrease of 11.60% from the closing price on February 3.

Listing in Hong Kong broadens financing channels and accelerates market layout at home and abroad

The prospectus shows that the main purpose of Dongpeng Beverage's listing in Hong Kong is to raise funds to support production capacity expansion, brand building, national strategy, overseas expansion and digital upgrades, while optimizing working capital and enhancing product development capabilities. Among them, promoting the national strategy and expanding overseas layout are important directions for the company's Hong Kong stock financing.

According to the operating data announcement for the first three quarters of 2025, Dongpeng Beverage’s revenue in the Guangdong region, East China region, Central China region, Guangxi region, Southwest region, and North China region were 3.885 billion yuan, 2.395 billion yuan, and 22. .08 billion yuan, 1.142 billion yuan, 2.027 billion yuan, and 2.601 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 13.50%, 32.76%, 28.15%, 21.99%, 48.91%, and 72.88% respectively. Among them, the North China region has surpassed the East China region to become the second largest source of revenue for Dongpeng Beverage.

Some analysts pointed out that after fully tapping the domestic market, Dongpeng Beverage may face a bottleneck in national development. In the first three quarters of 2025, although the revenue of Dongpeng Beverage's "home base" Guangdong region increased by 13.50% year-on-year, the Guangdong region's single-quarter growth in the third quarter was only 2.07% year-on-year. Judging from operating data, in the first three quarters of 2025, except for the increase in the number of dealers in the Southwest and North China regions, the number of dealers decreased in all other regions.

In order to strengthen the coverage of end consumers, Dongpeng Beverage plans to strengthen the "freezing strategy" and part of the funds raised this time will be used to increase the scale and intensity of the placement and use of freezers at terminal sales outlets. The Hong Kong stock prospectus shows that in the next three to five years, the company expects to purchase and launch 600,000 freezers in provincial cities across the country.

In terms of overseas market expansion, Dongpeng Beverage is also exploring potential investment and merger and acquisition opportunities. According to the Hong Kong stock prospectus, the company plans to use funds to build supply chain infrastructure, including warehousing, in key overseas markets in order to achieve localized operations. In the short term, the company will focus on the Southeast Asian market, and in the medium and long term, it will gradually focus on other markets such as the United States.

Industry insiders pointed out that compared with the domestic market with high brand recognition and complete distribution system, the current overseas functional drink consumption market is still dominated by Red Bull. Whether Dongpeng Beverage can successfully complete the localization transformation in Southeast Asia and other overseas markets will still face many challenges and uncertainties.

"Both high deposits and loans" were questioned and shareholders reduced their holdings, attracting attention

The financial report shows that Dongpeng Beverage has a financial structure phenomenon of "high deposits and loans", that is, it holds large amounts of cash while still borrowing money. Industry analysts believe that this kind of capital allocation situation of "high deposits and loans" and "large deposits and large loans" is rare in the food and beverage industry. The reporter noticed that this phenomenon also caused the capital market to question the financing purpose of Dongpeng Beverage's listing in Hong Kong.

Judging from the disclosed data, Dongpeng Beverage’s deposit and loan scale continues to be at a high level. The third quarterly report of 2025 shows that as of September 30, 2025, Dongpeng Beverage’s monetary funds were 5.720 billion yuan. At the same time, its short-term borrowings reached 6.973 billion yuan, an increase of 6.43% from 6.551 billion yuan at the end of 2024.

What is intriguing is that while "deposits and loans are both high", Dongpeng Beverage actively implements large dividends, and its major shareholders intensively reduce their holdings and cash out, triggering widespread doubts among investors.

Public information shows that Dongpeng Beverage’s equity is mainly in the hands of founder Lin Muqin and his family. According to the 2025 semi-annual report, as of June 30, 2025, the company's largest shareholder Lin Muqin held a shareholding ratio of 49.74%. Lin Muqin's brother Lin Mugang and nephew Lin Daiqin both held a shareholding ratio of 5.22%. Only the three of them together held a shareholding ratio of more than 60%.

The Hong Kong stock prospectus shows that from 2022 to October 9, 2025, when Hong Kong stocks were submitted, Dongpeng Beverage announced a cumulative dividend of 5.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative dividend payout rate of approximately 60%. Among them, dividends will be 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend rate of nearly 70%. From the perspective of equity structure, Lin Muqin, the actual controller of Dongpeng Beverage, and his family are obviously the biggest beneficiaries.

What has been criticized by the market is that data shows that Dongpeng Beverage has issued a total of 7 holding reduction announcements since the lifting of the ban on restricted shares in May 2022. Tianjin Junzheng Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership), the former second largest shareholder, has reduced its shareholding ratio from 9.00% at the beginning of listing to 1.00% at the end of the first half of 2025 after reducing its holdings several times. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, including Dongpeng Beverage’s employee shareholding platform and the actual controller related party Yantai Kunpeng Investment and Development Partnership (Limited Partnership), the cumulative amount of reductions by relevant shareholders has exceeded 7 billion yuan.

Industry insiders pointed out that as a leading beverage company listed on both "A+H" places, Dongpeng Beverage is facing market scrutiny of the company's capital use efficiency and future development strategy. Whether the company can truly transform capital operations into a driving force for long-term development and achieve high-quality and steady growth in the future remains to be tested by the market.

(Intern Sun Kaihe also contributed to this article)

(Reader’s email: znhwuyong@163.com)

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未经允许不得转载:Lijin Finance » Why Dongpeng Beverage's Hong Kong Stock IPO's Breakthrough Performance Growth Can't Drive The Stock Price

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