In 2025, the gold market rose and fell sharply. Some investors became rich overnight, while others paid the "most painful tuition fee."
Since October, those who purchased gold products (883,434) have experienced a "roller coaster" journey. The international gold price has increased by more than 10% for 20 consecutive days, which has attracted many "gold savers" to get involved and purchase gold products such as gold bars, gold jewelry, and accumulated gold at a high point. I wanted to make a profit from the rising gold price, but unexpectedly it backfired. After a 20-day rise, the international gold price began to retreat, once falling by more than 5%, and then fell for several consecutive days.
At the same time, the listed prices of pure gold jewelry (884141) in many domestic brand gold stores have dropped from a high of 1,294 yuan/gram to below 1,200 yuan/gram, and gold bar prices have also been falling.
"I lost 14,600 yuan in 9 days. The price of gold fluctuates. I really can't follow the trend and speculate in gold." Consumer (883434) Xiaoxue (pseudonym) said.
The influence of this "golden fever" is also being transmitted along the chain of wedding customs to groups preparing for marriage. As a necessary "hardware" in traditional wedding customs, its cost has increased with the price of gold, putting couples in a dilemma. A young man preparing to get married has postponed his wedding for two years in order to wait for the price of gold to drop. "From more than 500 yuan to 1,000 yuan, the longer I wait, the more panic I get. The two families can never agree on the gold purchase budget."
Ray Dalio (hereinafter referred to as "Dalio"), founder of Bridgewater Associates, a world-renowned hedge fund, wrote "My Answers to Gold-Related Questions" on social media and suggested that an allocation of 15% of gold is a reasonable gold allocation ratio that most people should hold.
Someone bought at a high price and lost 5,000 yuan in one night
According to a Red Star News report on October 29, after seeing the gold price increase in the gold store group for several consecutive weeks, consumer (883434) Xiaoxue was finally moved, "Many people in the gold store group are buying gold bars, and I am also a little tempted. I have never bought one before."
On October 21, when going to the bank to handle transfer business, Xiaoxue purchased two investment gold bars weighing 100 grams, costing 190,000 yuan.
Choosing to buy at the bank was Xiaoxue's choice after comparing the prices in gold stores. On that day, the price of gold bars in the gold store group was 983 yuan/gram, which was 15 yuan more expensive than the bank.
"The price of gold has been soaring. Now I buy 968 yuan per gram. I buy 200 grams of gold bars and keep them at home. I will sell them when the gold price rises to 1,200 yuan per gram. In this way, I may be able to make some money." Xiaoxue planned.
There are many consumers (883434) who have similar experiences to Xiaoxue.
College student Lily (pseudonym) bought 10 grams of gold jewelry (884141) on October 17, "taking advantage of the discounts during Double Eleven, I bought it at a high price."
Looking back on her considerations for buying gold at the time, Lily said that it was her first time to buy gold and she didn’t really understand gold. However, she instinctively believed that “gold maintains its value” and “consumption (883434) is equivalent to no consumption (883434)”. She wanted to wait for the subsequent rise in gold prices before switching to a gold necklace as a birthday gift for her mother.
Watching the gold ETF (518600) purchased by a friend go up, with a "try" mentality, Xie Ming (pseudonym) opened Alipay Yu'e Bao on October 20 and bought his first gold ETF (518600).
On the second day after buying the gold bars, Xiaoxue discovered that the price of gold had dropped. On October 22, the gold bars dropped to 940 yuan/gram. "It has been rising before, and I never thought it would fall. I lost more than 5,000 yuan on a 200-gram gold bar in one night." Xiaoxue became "restless" and began to pray that the price would rebound in the future, but things still went against expectations in the next few days. The price of gold has been falling, 930 yuan/g, 925 yuan/g, 905 yuan/g…
Until October 29, the price of gold bars purchased by Xiaoxue dropped to 895 yuan/gram. According to estimates, she lost 14,600 yuan in 9 days.
After a 20-day rise, international gold prices have recently begun to retreat, with a drop of more than 5%. On October 27, London spot gold fell below the US$4,000 mark and closed at US$3,951.95 per ounce on October 28. Subsequently, the price listed in domestic brand gold stores has dropped to below 1,200 yuan/gram. According to rough calculation, the price is reduced by about 60 yuan per gram. Gold bar prices have also been falling.
Many "gold savers" have not yet tasted the "sweetness" of profits and have to face the reality of losses.
Not long after she bought gold jewelry (884141), Lily also discovered that the price began to fall. The price she bought for 1,005 yuan per gram on October 17 had dropped to about 920 yuan per gram on the 22nd.
Xie Ming held the gold ETF (518600) for a week and also suffered losses. He chose to sell it because he had no investment experience.
Some people are waiting to see the price of gold. The marriage has not happened after 2 years.
According to a cover news report, on October 29, Tangtang (pseudonym) from Nanning, Guangxi, confided to reporters that she and her fiancé had a fierce quarrel over the purchase of wedding hardware, and their marriage was in a deadlock. The root cause was the soaring gold price in the past two years.
Tangtang said she is a gold lover. At the end of 2022, she and her boyfriend decided to date for the purpose of getting married. The two parties agreed to purchase 100 grams of gold as wedding hardware. At that time, the price of gold was less than 600 yuan per gram, and the budget for 100 grams of hardware was about 50,000 to 60,000 yuan, which was within the acceptable range of both of them. But the boyfriend believed that the price of gold would still fall and insisted on suspending the purchase. This became the beginning of the conflict.
Subsequently, the price of gold continued to rise, and when it exceeded 600 yuan per gram, Tangtang took the initiative to give in and proposed that even if he could not buy 100 grams with a budget of 60,000 yuan, he could buy more than 90 grams. He urged her boyfriend to place an order many times, but he was still dissuaded by the other party on the grounds that "it may still drop."
After the Dragon Boat Festival this year, the price of gold soared to more than 900 yuan per gram. The parents of both parties have finalized the wedding date, but the purchase of hardware has completely failed to reach an agreement because the cost has doubled. "The amount of gold that can be bought with a budget of 60,000 yuan has shrunk significantly, and our differences have completely erupted." Tangtang admitted that she was not obsessed with 100 grams of gold itself, but her boyfriend's hesitant and calculating attitude made her feel chilled. "I sympathize with his concerns, but he doesn't care at all."
Is the short-term "squatting" of gold prices a good opportunity to get on the market or a signal to persuade others to retreat?
Recently, the international gold price has fluctuated significantly after continuing to rise.
At US$4,000/oz and US$3,900/oz, international gold prices have fallen below two levels in a row. On October 20, the spot gold price in London reached a historical high of US$4,381 per ounce. As of press time, it had fallen back to US$3,968 per ounce. It only took 10 days for the price of gold to fall to US$413 per ounce.
According to China Business News, during this period, despite the continuous plunge in gold prices, the domestic market gold ETF (518600) still maintained a net inflow. "This shows that many investors regard this round of adjustment as an opportunity to 'reverse the wheel'." A precious metals (881169) analyst in Shanghai told reporters that funds that tend to hold for a long time are still optimistic about the performance of gold in the interest rate cut channel. Although gold prices are under pressure in the short term, the trend of "de-dollarization", the continued purchase of gold by global central banks, and long-term inflation expectations brought about by the expansion of US debt still provide medium and long-term support for gold.
Regarding whether you can add positions at the current price, Liu Yang suggested not to impulsively increase the allocation ratio of gold just because gold has performed well recently. Investors should start from the perspective of asset allocation, determine the proportion of gold allocation in household asset allocation, and strictly implement it in accordance with the initially determined proportion to ensure that the fluctuation of the asset portfolio is within an acceptable range and avoid irrational decisions.
In addition, exchanges and banks have successively issued risk warnings. Recently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange have raised gold margin ratios and price limits. Many banks have also increased the minimum deposit amount of deposited gold products and reminded customers to reasonably control their positions.
Shenwan Hongyuan (000166) research believes that gold is no longer a wise choice in the short term. The latest research report released by the agency reminds that the current high volatility of gold has seriously eroded its risk-return ratio. Historical experience also shows that the starting point of each round of gold's main rise is almost always accompanied by the return of volatility to the low level before the start. The agency suggested that allocation funds should wait for dips in the 3,800-3,900 US dollars per ounce area, while trading funds should wait for volatility to fall back to lows before entering the market.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that before buying gold, everyone should ask themselves the simplest and most core question: "If I don't understand the trends of gold and other markets at all, what proportion of gold should I allocate in my portfolio?" In other words, he believes that allocating gold should be based on strategic asset allocation considerations, rather than making tactical bets on gold prices.
Dalio analyzed that, judging from historical data, gold has a negative correlation with other assets (mainly stocks and bonds), especially during periods when stocks and bonds have poor real returns, this negative correlation is more significant. Therefore, he believes that for individuals or families, it is most appropriate to allocate about 15% of gold. This proportion can achieve the optimal risk-return ratio of the investment portfolio. However, he also admitted that the long-term expected return rate of gold is low and similar to the return rate of cash. If you only allocate according to this ratio, it may be at the expense of reducing the overall expected return rate of the investment portfolio in the long run.
He further explained the motivation for allocating 15% gold: If you want to obtain a better risk-return ratio without lowering the expected rate of return, you can use gold holdings as an overlay allocation, or slightly increase the leverage of the entire portfolio, which can achieve a better risk-return ratio while ensuring that the expected rate of return is not affected.
Judging from the current market environment, this configuration recommendation is more realistic. Dalio observed that there is huge downward pressure on real interest rates in the current market, and there is an oversupply of debt and the growth rate far exceeds the growth rate of demand. Against this backdrop, funds are turning from debt assets to gold in search of diversification, but gold's limited supply cannot meet this demand. He further analyzed that if tactical factors are not considered, gold itself is an efficient diversification tool for other investment products; once individuals, institutions and central banks of various countries allocate gold in reasonable proportions, the price of gold will inevitably rise sharply due to the scarcity of supply.
In the end, Dalio concluded: He will always keep a certain proportion of gold in his investment portfolio, and it is crucial to determine this proportion. Although he emphasized that he would not give specific investment advice, he suggested that everyone think about how much funds should be allocated to gold? "For most investors, I think a reasonable ratio may be between 10% and 15%." Dalio gave his own answer.
