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I am also confused. Until now, I still don’t know whether gold has failed bearishly.
From a practical point of view, it was indeed beaten continuously last Friday, but from a strategic and overall perspective, the position I emphasized is 3360 points, and I do intend to really start to see the golden band fall here, and there seems to be no problem. What's the key? This gold fell very early. I originally wanted to wait for it to be in place, but it fell by 60 US dollars at 3345, which gave me a way to rely on the top. Later, I carried out some short orders around this price. As you can imagine, most of them were liquidated in the end.
I thought 3345 failed to peak, but here comes the problem. It has also risen to the original strategic high of 3360. For me who had just been liquidated, it was already a bit dizzying, but I still chose to enter the market. I admit that it was a bit emotional and a bit emotional, but I didn’t want to miss the price I had been waiting for. This was my psychological change at the time. You will encounter situations like mine many times, but it’s just me. The choice is just to be more decisive. Of course, sometimes decisiveness will be in vain. This is an unsolvable problem, but I only focus on this wave of rising prices and high-altitude prices, because I know very well that if the price does not stop and goes all the way up, then the technical information of this wave of gold short bands will be completely broken. This does not mean that it cannot be short in the future, but that all the short signals that I have seen at this stage have completely failed.
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Until now, I am still not sure whether my short position was successfully opened. A 30-point drop in early trading is not the profit I want. I have to at least drop to 3320, right? Not only do I have room near 60, but I also increased my position at 3345 after the pullback last Friday. If you reach 3320, I can still get almost 60 US dollars. After excluding the losses surrounding the bearish failure of 3345, I can still make some profits. Some people may say, don't you take more if you see a big drop? I just want to say that your own willful actions cannot be entirely paid for by your own customers. You have to consider their feelings. After a devastating loss, of course you must first make up for your capital and confidence. If you want to be bearish again, you must have a boss to cooperate with me to implement it. So as a decision-maker, you don’t just have to be right every time, you also have to take into account the mentality of your collaborators.
I also know why gold rises and falls, but do you think I can blame Agawa for this kind of thing? What's the use of saying this? Whether you want to increase taxes or reduce taxes depends entirely on Agawa's mood, or whether the EU has compromised in some aspects, and you can't guess whether it will counterattack or not. Therefore, I would rather take a good look at the technical trends to make judgments, rather than betting on the development of tax increases. In addition, GDP and PCE data will be released this Thursday. Such a sensitive band short signal will at least give me an intuitive result.
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The daily level is like this now, which is also the origin of 3360. I believe you don’t need to emphasize it too much, you should all know it.
What remains is the question of whether the signal is valid. There is more than 200 US dollars of band space along this way. As mentioned before, either gold will not adjust, fall down the channel in advance, and change the rhythm of the decline. This is what everyone expects. As a short seller, I hope to see this result. Otherwise, although the upward adjustment on the right side is normal, it will prolong my subsequent bearish cycle. The simple explanation is, you see, it has risen for 7 trading days, right? Then does it take time for me to be bearish?
If I see the position directly and the wave goes to the bottom, the price happens to be at 3120. This is one of the reasons why I am very worried. If you only make fluctuations here, it really doesn’t matter where it falls. You don’t need to care too much, but I still want to see To break 3100, we must stop gold from falling so fast. Only by falling slowly can we have a chance to do it. Assuming that it starts to plummet from now on, it will reach 3120 as soon as this week. This happens to be the low point of the previous decline. What if the low level causes a double bottom reaction? There is still a high risk of rebound, so I hope that this round of decline will not be so fast on the market. As long as it drags back, the expected low will continue to move downwards. Only after breaking through 3120 can I be completely relieved.
Of course, this is due to my thinking. Of course, what I need most in trading is to drop quickly, then run away the order, and find opportunities and signals to adapt to this week's fluctuations. I emphasize again that identifying gold's decline has not yet failed, and it has not yet reached the time to define failure. And the most important point is that watching and doing are two things. To put it another way, I will tell you this answer from my personal experience every day, including now. If you have not entered the market and want to participate in short selling, be careful to wait until it is near 50, and use the previous high of 65 as a retracement to try. You can still grab the space of 20 US dollars. If you are not given a chance, it is not recommended to take the risk of making a rebound long order.
