| This article was first published in Tencent News
On March 18, the US-Israel-Iraq war entered its 18th day. With the assassination of Iran's No. 2 figure, the "meat grinder" at the military level is still running at high speed.
However, what really worries Washington is the unprecedented resignation protests within its intelligence system and the serious rift between the two sides of the Atlantic over the issue of "paying for escorts." According to many strategic analysts, this military operation, which was originally intended to be a quick victory, is facing a huge disaster that will backfire on its own strategy.
Iran’s No. 2 figure is assassinated, US and Israel’s “desperate assessment” leaked
In a series of attacks on Iran's command center, Israel announced the successful assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a core figure of the pragmatists. This news was subsequently confirmed by Iranian officials and Larijani’s social accounts. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tried to package this as a decisive victory that completely shaken the Tehran regime, and continued to incite the Iranian people in public to launch an uprising to overthrow the government.
However, an Israeli diplomatic cable leaked to the US Embassy in Jerusalem shattered this political propaganda. In this top-secret assessment, Israeli officials privately admitted that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is in complete control of the domestic situation, and that the regime not only “does not have any cracks” but is fully prepared to “fight to the end.”
This not only exposed the gap in Tel Aviv's strategic expectations, but also confirmed that Iran still maintains strong systemic resilience and defensive determination after experiencing continuous extreme pressure.
Tel Aviv attack, UN warns of 'war crimes'
Retaliation on the battlefield is spiraling in ways that continue to break the mold.
At midnight, Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster warhead into central Israel, severely damaging the Ramat Gan area around Tel Aviv. At the same time, Iran's long-range firepower network continues to extend to Jerusalem and the West Bank. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was attacked intensively by suicide drones for two consecutive nights.
On the northern front, Israel's indiscriminate bombing of dense residential areas in southern Lebanese cities (such as Tyre) has led the United Nations Human Rights Office to officially issue a warning that its actions may constitute "war crimes."
In order to regain control of the strategic waterway, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) dropped extremely destructive 5,000-pound heavy ground-penetrating bombs along the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to completely destroy Iran's anti-ship cruise missile positions. This use of strategic-level deterrent weapons to attack tactical targets highlights the deep anxiety of the US military in the face of a long-term blockade of the Strait. However, the indiscriminate pouring of firepower did not bring the expected security, but instead accelerated the evolution of the living environment in the entire Middle East into a "scorched earth".
Counter-terrorism chief resigns, uncovering 'war hoax'
Compared with the smoke of war in the Middle East, the turbulence in the inner circle of Washington's politics is equally intense.
Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), suddenly announced his resignation and made serious accusations against the Trump administration in his resignation letter. Kent bluntly pointed out that Iran did not pose the so-called "imminent threat" at all, and that the war was completely a hoax carefully concocted by Tel Aviv and its US lobby through disinformation to induce the United States to repeat the mistakes of the Iraq War.
This accusation was immediately confirmed by high-level British intelligence. According to British National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell, during the final negotiations in Vienna two days before the war began, Iran had made substantial concessions on its nuclear program, and a "peace agreement that could avoid war is within reach." However, just 48 hours later, missiles from the US-Israeli coalition roared in. This deliberate stifling of opportunities for peace is not only untenable under international law, but has also plunged the U.S. national security apparatus into deep moral and strategic divisions.
This counterattack from the top of the intelligence community severely weakened the legitimacy narrative of the war. Although Trump angrily countered in front of the media that Kent "has always been weak on security issues" and the White House spokesperson also tried his best to defend him, this resignation has inevitably opened a huge rift within the Republican Party and American society.
This military operation not only faced severe scrutiny under international law, but also encountered subversive doubts within the US national security apparatus.
The final bankruptcy of Hegemonic Escort
On the diplomatic battlefield, Trump’s relations with his European allies have dropped to a freezing point.
According to senior Republicans, after many countries refused to participate in escorting the Strait of Hormuz, Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction and posted a fierce message on social media, declaring that the United States, as the most powerful country, "does not need the help of NATO and Europe at all." However, this emotional statement did not change Europe's strategic stance.
British Foreign Secretary Cooper made it clear in the House of Commons that the UK will never "outsource" foreign policy to Trump, and that the Royal Navy may participate in maintaining order only after a comprehensive ceasefire agreement is reached. French President Macron even directly declared that under the current background, France will never participate in any military operation to reopen the strait.
At the same time, the economic backlash caused by the war was spreading to Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was forced to issue an emergency decree limiting gas stations across the country to only raise fuel prices once a day to curb panic inflation caused by the Channel blockade. Kaya Callas, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs, even bluntly called on the United States and Israel to end the war as soon as possible to "preserve dignity."
