Introduction As Bitcoin's third halving cycle enters a critical stage, the BTCC analyst team combines on-chain data, macroeconomic environment and technical indicators to conduct in-depth research and judgment on the Bitcoin price trend from 2025 to 2035. Interested friends can learn more
As Bitcoin's third halving cycle enters a critical stage, the BTCC analyst team combines on-chain data, macroeconomic environment and technical indicators to conduct in-depth research and judgment on Bitcoin price trends from 2025 to 2035. This article includes: 1) Analysis of key support levels of current prices; 2) Five core factors affecting long-term trends; 3) Latest position dynamics of institutional investors; 4) Ten-year cycle price prediction model.
Analysis of the current BTC price key level (October 2025) Why does $107,000 become the watershed between bulls and bears?
According to real-time data from the BTCC trading platform, as of October 20, 2025, BTC/USDT is currently trading at $106,982.50, a 24-hour increase of 0.31%. It is worth noting:
Source: TradingView
What signals do exchange fund flows reveal?
The latest data from Glassnode shows:
Index value meaning
Exchange net outflow
7,560 BTC/week
A month-on-month increase of 32%
Whale address holdings
5.2 million BTC
A two-year high
Five core factors affecting the long-term price of BTC 1. Institutional investor allocation cycle
Statistics from the BTCC Research Institute found that institutional holdings in Q3 2025 increased by 29.79% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 42.33% in the 2020 bull market cycle. Traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock continue to increase their holdings through spot ETFs. The average number of BTC held by the top 500 companies has doubled compared with last year.
2. The case of the National Reserve of the Kingdom of Bhutan
In 2023, the Bhutanese government secretly purchased $1.3 billion in BTC (accounting for 40% of the country's GDP) through Druk Holding & Investments. This national sovereign fund allocation model is being imitated by more developing countries.
3. The Fed’s monetary policy shifts
According to CME interest rate futures data: the probability of an interest rate cut in Q4 of 2025 has reached 78%. Historical data shows that 6 to 12 months after each Fed policy shift, BTC rose by an average of 137%.
4. The fourth halving effect
The block reward halving completed in 2024 is expected to have the largest supply impact in 2025-2026. In the 18 months after the past three halvings, the median price increase was 6,500%.
5. Lightning Network Adoption Rate
Visa’s latest report shows that the number of global BTC payment channels has exceeded 5 million, an increase of 70 times compared with 2020. The legal tender status policies of countries such as El Salvador continue to promote commercial implementation.
BTC ten-year price prediction model (2025-2035)
The BTCC financial engineering team creates a three-stage valuation framework:
Short term (1-2 years)
Technical view shows: If the support level of 106,800 is held, the target price at the end of 2026 is US$137,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension level)
Medium term (3-5 years)
According to the Stock-to-Flow model: the forecast range in 2028 is US$250,000-300,000, with institutional allocation demand being the main driver
Long term (6-10 years)
Consider currency devaluation and adoption curve: conservative valuation of $500,000 in 2035, could exceed the million dollar mark in extreme cases
FAQ Is it too late to invest in BTC?
According to data from the BTCC Research Institute, although the market value of BTC has exceeded US$2 trillion, it still has room to grow four times compared to gold’s market value of US$8 trillion. Institutional investors generally believe that it is still in the early stages.
How can small funds participate?
It is recommended to adopt a regular fixed amount investment strategy. Through compliance platforms such as BTCC, you can start fixed investment with as little as $10, effectively smoothing the risk of market fluctuations.
What's the biggest risk?
Sudden changes in regulatory policies and breakthroughs in quantum computing are two major potential risks. However, the regulatory frameworks of various countries are becoming increasingly clear, and the commercial use of quantum computers will take at least 10 years of development.
This concludes this article about BTC price prediction in 2025: trend analysis and interpretation of five key factors in the next ten years. For more information on BTC price prediction in 2025, please search Script House’s previous articles or continue browsing the related articles below. I hope you will support Script House in the future!
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