Introduction PlanC's latest analysis points out that the market's prediction of the correlation between the Bitcoin halving cycle and Q4 price lacks statistical support. Historical data shows that the increase after the halving event is not necessarily related to the quarter. The current hype logic has a survivor bias. It is recommended that investors return to fundamental analysis and be wary of misleading cycle theory.
Bitcoin fell below $110,500 on Saturday, down more than 2% in a day, as investors became less confident about a rebound in the fourth quarter. The caution stems from analyst PlanC’s view that relying on past halving cycles to predict price highs is statistically flawed.
PlanC likened it to the coin toss fallacy and warned traders that Bitcoin’s history is not guaranteed to repeat itself. He said: “There is no statistical evidence to support a peak in the fourth quarter, and the market environment has changed dramatically compared to the previous cycle. Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury holdings have changed the rules of the game, and forecasts based on the old cycle are useless.
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PlanC's analysis identifies a disconnect between bullish Q4 Bitcoin price predictions and statistical probability.
The forecast hinges on psychological factors, not fundamental metrics.
A cycle high this year lacks statistical…
— AIR3 Agent (@AIRewardrop) September 6, 2025
This view has shaken the market’s bullish sentiment, with investors beginning to question whether Bitcoin can break above last month’s high of $124,128. Market surveys show that nearly 70% of respondents expect BTC to fall to $105,000 before moving higher.
Weak employment data supports BTC
Although market sentiment cooled in the fourth quarter, macroeconomic conditions are providing support. The latest U.S. jobs report showed weaker-than-expected data, including a slowdown in hiring, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a downward revision to the previous report.
The market reacted violently: U.S. bond yields fell, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.70%, and expectations for a September interest rate cut soared. Loose monetary conditions have historically been positive for Bitcoin, as it benefits from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower borrowing costs.
“Once the labor market weakens, it gives the Fed room to cut interest rates.” One strategist said, emphasizing that this macro backdrop may reduce Bitcoin’s downside risks. While short-term caution remains, a dovish Fed could help stabilize Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Short-term and Long-term Technical Outlook
Bitcoin price prediction remains neutral. The 4-hour chart shows that BTC is forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $113,400, ahead of higher lows that have been forming since late August.
The 50-day moving average (SMA) is supporting price action at $110,021, with the 200-day moving average (SMA) forming a pivot level at $112,606.
The RSI sits at 50, indicating a consolidation phase with slight bullish divergence; momentum is stabilizing.
BTC/USD Daily Price Chart – Source: TradingView
If Bitcoin can break through $113,400 on strong trading volume, the upside targets will be $115,400 and $117,150.
If it fails at the resistance level, the price may fall back to support near $108,770.
BTC/USD Weekly Price Chart – Source: TradingView
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still operating within an ascending weekly channel.
The next key resistance is near $134,500, while Fibonacci extension levels suggest potential upside targets could extend to $171,000 or even $231,000 if momentum accelerates. Below, the $95,000–100,000 range acts as strong support and is expected to attract buying, thereby maintaining the overall uptrend structure.
The above is the Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: analysts point out that the Q4 cycle hype ignores the detailed content of statistical data. For more information about the Bitcoin Q4 prediction being falsified by data, please pay attention to other related articles on Script House!
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