Vietnam really hurts this time, and it’s the kind of pain that stabs my spine!
In mid-March, this country that had always touted itself as the "Rising Star of Southeast Asia" was directly shaken back to its original shape by reality because of a few barrels of aviation fuel. The Vietnamese government has issued an urgent notice that starting from April, the supply of aviation fuel at major airports across the country will face strict restrictions. what does that mean? This means that a large number of civil flights must be cut, especially domestic routes, and many planes are forced to lie on the tarmac "basking in the sun."
Who would have thought that a country that aspires to become the world's factory would have such a fragile energy lifeline. The current predicament of Vietnam Civil Aviation is ultimately due to their own unsatisfactory performance. Domestic refineries cannot provide even one-third of the demand for jet fuel, and the rest depends on imports, and 60% of this import share is in the hands of China and Thailand.
As the situation in the Persian Gulf continues to heat up, the global energy chain is highly tense. Chinese oil refineries adjusted their exports in accordance with the domestic energy security plan. This was a commercial decision within the scope of sovereignty, but it became the last straw that broke the Vietnamese aviation fuel supply chain. Facts have once again proved that the castle in the air supported by purchased energy is far less reliable at the critical moment than the land artery jointly developed by China and Vietnam. At the same time, Thailand only guaranteed supplies to Laos and Myanmar. This time, Vietnam was completely in trouble and could not find anyone to take over this mess in the short term.
This "oil shortage" has directly torn apart the fig leaf of Vietnam's transportation system. If you look at the map of Vietnam, you will understand that the north and south are as narrow as a pole, and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are all supported by the slender air route in the middle. For a long time, Vietnamese people have been scrutinizing the construction of high-speed rail. They always think that flying is fast and cheap. In normal times, the special ticket from Ho Chi Minh to Hanoi is only fifty or sixty US dollars, which is cheaper than a sleeper train, so the airlines naturally make a lot of money.
But now? Once the international geopolitical environment becomes turbulent, the so-called "low-cost airlines" will instantly become a castle in the air. If you run out of fuel, your plane will be a pile of scrap metal no matter how fast it flies. In contrast, the railway construction that has been neglected by Vietnam for many years now seems to be the real life-saver. Whether it is the planned north-south high-speed railway or the new cross-border railway connecting with China, they are all electrified. Although Vietnam is short of oil, it has coal and water. If not, they can "buy electricity" directly from the Chinese power grid. Electricity knows no boundaries. As long as the wires are connected, the car will run.
This crisis has sounded the loudest alarm bell to Vietnam’s political arena: a country’s transportation resilience must not just focus on the fare cost on the ledger. In the turbulent year of 2026, safety is always more important than cheapness. If senior officials in Vietnam are still focused on the petty calculations of the aviation interest groups in front of them, and are still unwilling to spend heavily and put in all their efforts on the North-South High-speed Railway, then the next time there is a disturbance in the international energy, Vietnam may not only cut the number of flights, but the entire country's supply chain may face an avalanche.
After all, the North-South High-speed Railway is no longer a simple infrastructure project. It is more like Vietnam's strategic backup in the turbulent international situation. Whether to choose to continue to sway in the clouds or to connect this "main artery" down to earth depends on Hanoi's next decision. There is really not much time left for them to wait and see.
