Recently, topics such as "this year and next may be the hottest years in history" and "the earth may be facing a super El Niño phenomenon" have attracted widespread attention.
According to multiple media reports, many scientific research institutions around the world predict that a strong El Niño phenomenon may occur later this year, which will disturb the global climate. It may not only cause disasters such as extreme heat, floods, and droughts, but may also further increase global temperatures, causing summer temperatures this and next year to climb to record highs.
In response to these social concerns, relevant experts from the National Climate Center provided interpretations.
It is now confirmed that it will appear this year
"Super El Niño" too early
Based on the latest monitoring data and prediction results of multiple domestic and foreign climate models, the National Climate Center shows that the recent La Niña state is ending and will subsequently enter a neutral state. Sea temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the future, and may enter an El Niño state later this spring.
Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office of the National Climate Center, explained that based on historical statistics, after the La Niña event ends, the probability of entering an El Niño state that year is about one-third. There are differences in the specific timing of El Niño predicted by multiple international models. The earliest may be April this year, and the latest may be late summer or early autumn. The predictions of different models vary greatly.
For example: the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April; Australia predicts May; the Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June; American experts vote to predict July to September.
Overall, it is more likely that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will be in an El Niño state in the second half of this year, but it is currently impossible to accurately predict its specific formation time and overall intensity.
At present, there are still large differences in the results of multiple international climate prediction models, and a consensus has not yet been formed. Therefore, it is too early to conclude that a "super El Niño" will occur this year.
Expert advice: Treat climate prediction information rationally
Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office of the National Climate Center, reminded that El Niño events are often accompanied by increases in global average temperatures, but the specific temperature rise and extreme weather performance require further monitoring and judgment based on the intensity, type and regional climate response of El Niño.
Currently, there are heated discussions on social media about topics such as "the hottest year" and "extreme weather", and some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Experts advise the public to:
A rational view of forecast information, especially the specific formation time, intensity and impact area of El Niño still requires dynamic monitoring and forecasting;
Pay attention to real-time updated forecast information released by authoritative organizations rather than extreme statements at a single point in time;
Pay attention to weather warnings in advance and make corresponding preparations for prevention and response. Agricultural producers should arrange agricultural activities reasonably, and urban managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.
It will be rainy in northern Guangxi in the next three days
It will be mainly cloudy to cloudy in the south
Today (17th)
Most of Guangxi is immersed in the warm embrace of spring
4pm
It was 26~27℃ in southeastern Guangxi, and Baise Xilin broke through 30℃
Feeling hotter
Only northeastern Guangxi is affected by weak cold air
The weather has a different look
expected in the next few days
Warm and cold air still frequently meet in northern Guangxi
bring rain
Expected in the next 3 days
Rainy weather in northern Guangxi
Moderate to heavy rain may occur locally
There is relatively little rain in southern Guangxi
Just some scattered light rain falling
It should be noted that
Today (17th) evening
Friends from Guilin, Liuzhou, Hechi and Baise area
To strengthen prevention
Local short-term thunderstorm and strong wind
Small hail and other strong convective weather
The highest temperature in the next three days
Some places in northern Guangxi begin with 1
Most of the places in southern Guangxi focus on warmth.
The temperature is basically between 24 and 27 degrees Celsius
minimum temperature
Most areas are less than 20℃
If you feel cool in the morning and evening, you need to wear more clothes
The specific forecast is as follows↓↓
During the day tomorrow (18th), it will be cloudy with light rain in Guilin, Liuzhou, Hechi, Baise, Laibin, Hezhou and other cities and the northern part of Nanning City. It will be cloudy with scattered light rain in other areas.
Nanning City: From tonight to tomorrow day, it will be cloudy, with local light rain, southerly winds of level 2 to 3, the lowest temperature is 19°C, and the highest temperature is 24°C.
Daytime weather forecast for tomorrow (18th).
From the evening of the 18th to the day of the 19th, it was cloudy with light rain and localized moderate rain in northern Guangxi, and it was cloudy to cloudy with scattered light rain in southern Guangxi.
From the evening of the 19th to the day of the 20th, northern Guangxi was cloudy with light rain and localized moderate to heavy rain, and southern Guangxi was cloudy with scattered light rain.
It is worth noting that most areas will still receive less rainfall in the coming week, and drought prevention and relief efforts must continue.
It is expected that in the next week, northern Guangxi will have mostly cloudy and rainy weather, while southern Guangxi will mainly have cloudy to cloudy weather with relatively high temperatures. The overall meteorological conditions are favorable for spring plowing and spring sowing. All regions should speed up spring sowing. However, precipitation in most areas is still low, and all regions must continue to do a good job in drought prevention and relief and other related work.
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