Not long ago, we reported on the polls for the California gubernatorial race, which showed that two Republicans ranked in the top two, while the highest ranking of Democrats was only in third place (for details, click: California is expected to flip! Latest poll: Republican candidates lead the pack).
In less than a month, the latest polls show that Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell, who was originally ranked third, "quickly" surpassed him and became the top candidate in the polls.
This is a joint survey report by Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters from March 7 to 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. The survey showed that Swalwell's approval rating rose 3 percentage points from 14% in mid-February, while Hilton's approval rating fell from 17% to 13%. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (Republican) ranked third with 11.4%.
Billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer is close behind at 11%. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D)'s approval rating fell to 8.4% from nearly 10% in February. Other well-known Democrats such as San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra all have approval ratings around 3%.
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24.5% of voters are still undecided to vote
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, analyzed: "In the past month, Representative Swalwell's support among Democratic voters has increased from 23% to 27%, and Tom Steyer has also increased from 12% to 16% among this group." Among independent voters, 39% are undecided, and 12% support Swalwell and Hilton respectively; Republican voters are divided, with Bianco winning 34% and Hilton 38%. Overall, 24.5% of voters are still undecided on their voting intentions, making the situation before the June 2 primary election confusing.
According to California election rules, the two candidates with the highest votes (regardless of party affiliation) will enter the November general election to compete to replace Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom when his term expires.
Swalwell is a congressman representing the eastern district of the San Francisco Bay Area. He was a member of the House Intelligence Committee. He was removed from the House Intelligence Committee because his girlfriend was suspected of being a spy. His campaign slogan is "anti-Trump."
Billionaire Hilton, a conservative commentator, once led the February poll with 17%, but has recently declined. Bianco appealed to conservative voters, especially in the Inland Empire, with his tough law enforcement and anti-Sacramento stance.
The California gubernatorial election adopts a non-partisan primary system. Candidates from any party can run, and the top two candidates advance to the runoff. This mechanism is intended to promote moderates, but the current divisions within the Democratic Party and the relative concentration of the Republican Party may amplify unintended consequences.
I wonder what everyone would choose?
