Zhang Yaoxi: The geopolitical situation will welcome non-agricultural data again, and gold prices will fluctuate or rebound and strengthen.
Last trading day, Thursday (March 5): International gold encountered resistance and closed down, regaining Wednesday's gains, and once again stepped back to support positions such as the mid-rail line. Although there are certain support buying expectations, the trend is still weak before breaking above the 5-10 day short-term moving average and stabilizing. Below, pay attention to the support near yesterday's low and the long position near the 60-day moving average support.
In terms of specific trends, the price of gold opened at US$5,145.86 per ounce in the Asian market. It rebounded first and recorded an intraday high of US$5,194.34 at 11 o'clock at noon. Afterwards, it encountered resistance and fell back. The European market fluctuated and consolidated, and the US market held steady again. It continued to fall, hitting an intraday low of $5051.35 at the end of the day, and finally stopped falling and rebounded, closing at $5081.03, with a daily amplitude of $142.99, and closed down $64.83, or 1.26%.
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In terms of impact, the day was supported by buying, and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East promoted the demand for safe-haven assets, causing the gold price to record an intraday high first. However, due to resistance and the strengthening of the US dollar, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in February (10,000 people) and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to February 28 (10,000 people) were negative for the gold price, which once again cooled down expectations of the Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and suppressed the gold price. It fell back and closed down.
Looking forward to today's Friday (March 6): The opening of international gold continued to stop the decline and rebounded late overnight, and started to strengthen. The U.S. dollar index was weak in early trading, which also provided some support for it. In addition, the US non-agricultural data in the evening was generally positive for the price of gold, which also had a certain benefit for it. However, the ADP and initial applications data released this week were negative for the price of gold. Therefore, the non-agricultural data may be better than expected, which is negative for the price of gold.
However, due to the expected impact of non-farm payrolls and the monthly average hourly wage rate in the United States in February and the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in January being significantly weaker than the previous value, if the data is better than or in line with expectations, it will first fall and then rise. If it is weaker than expected and the previous value, it will directly rebound and strengthen, otherwise it will fluctuate lower.
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From a perspective, recent trends have been dominated by U.S. economic data and the prospect of interest rate cuts. Therefore, after this week, the market will return to geopolitical risks again and maintain a strong trend.
Although the situation in the Middle East has entered its sixth day, the US-Israeli coalition's military actions against Iran have intensified, and the market is concerned that the conflict may push up oil prices and inflation, thereby weakening the Federal Reserve's expectations for an interest rate cut. But this is only a short-term suppression. The rise in inflation will eventually lead to an improvement in the commodity nature of gold prices and a strengthening. In addition, signs of a sharp increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit and macro uncertainty still provide support for gold fundamentals. Therefore, even if it does not reach a new high during the year, it will remain volatile at a high level.
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Technically, at the monthly level, the price of gold rebounded and peaked in February. This month, it has now emerged from a shock cross and peaked. This suggests that the market outlook in the first half of the year will tend to continue to fluctuate and adjust to the expected market, and it will start to climb upward again in the second half of the year to refresh the high to the $6,000 mark or even $7,500. However, if it falls below $4,300 in the first half of the year and stabilizes and closes below this level, it will imply that the bull market is over and will further fall to $3,500 or even lower, the 3,000 mark.
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On the weekly chart, gold prices encountered resistance and fell back this week, forming a bearish pattern of yin and yang. Then focus on the 10-week moving average below or the support level of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands to choose to be bullish.
On the daily chart, the price of gold has continuously encountered resistance from the 5-10 day short-term moving average, which prevented the bulls from further strengthening their momentum and pulled it up again. Now it has once again stepped on support positions such as the mid-track line, which implies that the bears still have the upper hand. Below, you can pay attention to the upper and lower trend lines of the previous upward trend channel as support for bullish entry.
Pay attention to the real position information for specific real-time follow-up guidance during the day.
The preliminary point ideas for intraday operations are for reference. The specific entry and exit points are subject to the actual position notification:
Gold: Focus on the support near US$5,050 or US$5,000 below; focus on the resistance near US$5,140 or US$5,180 above;
Silver: Focus on the support of US$80.30 or US$78.70 below; focus on the resistance of US$84.70 or US$86.35 above;
Note:
Gold TD = (international gold price x exchange rate)/31.1035
International gold fluctuates by 1 US dollar, and gold TD fluctuates by about 0.25 yuan (theoretically).
U.S. futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × futures expiration days/365)
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Review historical cause and effect, interpret the current environment, look forward to future trends, and adhere to the principles of bold prediction and prudent trading. –Zhang Yaoxi
The above opinions and analysis only represent the author's personal thoughts and are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading. If you operate based on this, you will be responsible for your profits and losses.
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